Note especially the reference to this study.
The 12 earthquakes that damaged Istanbul during the past 1500 years attest to a significant hazard and form the basis for a 30-year Poisson, or time-averaged, probability of 15 to 25%. Because the major faults near Istanbul are likely late in their earthquake cycles (with no major shocks since 1894), the renewal probability climbs to 49 ± 15%. We calculate that stress changes altered the rate of seismicity after the 1999 Izmit earthquake, promoting the M ± 7.2 Düzce shock and the Yalova cluster. Because the 1999 Izmit shock is calculated to have similarly increased stress on faults beneath the Marmara Sea, the interaction-based probability we advocate climbs still higher, to 62 ± 15%.
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