FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH

I had an eerie conversation with a cab driver today. It seems I'm not the only one in Istanbul who was spooked by the earthquake in Port-au-Prince. No, I wasn't the one who brought it up. As we drove through the city, he was pointing to the buildings that would collapse. Our judgment was pretty similar. We agreed that my neighborhood looked pretty good, except for some of the newer buildings.

This judgment, by the way, is shared by the Boğazici University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, which predicts that only 20 percent of the buildings in my neighborhood would collapse. You might want to look up that report if you live, say, in Avcılar, but I would suggest you move, first.

Some highlights from a 2002 report by the Turkish Court of Accounts, below. (Yes, 2002 was a while ago, but in many neighborhoods the situation has gotten worse, not better.)

HOW WELL IS ISTANBUL GETTING PREPARED

FOR THE EARTHQUAKE?

by the Turkish Court of Accounts

14. Despite timing of possible Istanbul earthquake is not known precisely,

possibility of its occurrence within 30 years is estimated to be %65.

It is expected that possible earthquake would cause severe damage in

Istanbul. The reason for this assumption is that the number of building in

Istanbul is high, a part of which are unlicensed and illegal and those with

licenses are constructed without performing their ground studies. Adding to

these, building inspections and controls are not effective enough.

• In plans prepared by some service groups, it was not considered that

assigned personnel themselves might be earthquake victim and their

substitutes were not designated. (P. 2.32)

Summaryand Recommendations

• Plans are not prepared with an approach that puts forward the concepts

of risk and priority. Risks and priorities are not taken into consideration

in the planning. (P. 2.32)

• Persons who have a role in the plan do not have necessary training

enabling them to do their share of task. For instance, the knowledge of

personnel trained for search and rescue, is below international standards

of this field, and quality as well as the duration of training is

dramatically insufficient. (P. 2.33)

• Although the inventory of equipments to be used for rescue services is

kept, there is no system that monitors and updates the movement and

last status of these equipments. (P. 2.33)

(P.3.8)

• At certain locations found inappropriate for settlement after ground

survey, there are buildings that were constructed beforehand. There is

no plan or project related to these buildings.

• Municipalities charged with conducting building development plans do

not have adequate facilities, equipments and personnel to fulfill this

duty in an effective manner. (P. 3.12, 3.13)

• Provisions of legislations related to prevention of buildings constructed

without license or against its license cannot be enforced decently.

• There are no prevocational and in-service training safeguarding the

professional competence of personnel working at construction sites. (P.

3.19)

5. Two thirds of Istanbul’s current housing stock is comprised of buildings

with no building permit or certificate of occupancy.

Additionally, in case of a possible earthquake;

• Multiple under and over passes as well as viaducts would be damaged;

• E-5 and TEM highways would be blocked;

• Damages to natural gas network would lead to big explosions and fires

unless the pressure was reduced via an “Early Warning” system;

Ambarlı Thermal Power Plant would be severely damaged, and become

nonfunctional, which would lead to longtime electricity cut in Istanbul

according to assumptions in case of a scenario earthquake.

1.2 There are approximately 1 200 000 privately-owned and over 10 000

public building in Istanbul where more than half of current housing stock is

either unlicensed or contrary to their licenses, and there is no possibility of

deriving sound statistical information as most of the buildings are not

registered.

3.2 Experts list main factors transforming an earthquake into a deadly

disaster as follows:

• Unplanned housing,

building development

plans contradictory to

science together with

wrong selection of

place;

• Illegal, unlicensed

housing;

• Licensed but

uncontrolled housing;

• Lack of legal sanctions

in preventing these

irregularities.