Learning to Fight

Does anyone know of an apartment like this?

2010-11-03T16:39:00.002+02:00

I'm looking for an apartment in Istanbul that has all of the following qualities:

*3-year lease

*Within 10-15 minutes walking distance to Taksim (Gümüşsuyu is probably ideal)

*Unfurnished, or little furniture

*Properly reinforced for earthquakes, soil and foundation report must be available, and the landlord must be willing to show them to me. ABSOLUTELY NON-NEGOTIABLE.

*Landlord friendly to cats.

*About 100 sq m.

*Very light, not claustrophobic, feeling of space

*Quiet: No construction nearby or planned--also non-negotiable.

*Sea view--I work at home, and I want to see something beautiful when I look out the window.

*A balcony that's structurally such that I could enclose it with mesh or wire, making it a place my cats can go without falling off and killing themselves

*There must be doors that close on the kitchen and at least one of the rooms that could serve as a study for me--open plan isn't suitable. I need to be able to keep the cats away from computer cords and gas stoves when I can't supervise them.

*Landlord has no prior history of major disputes with tenants or failure to do reasonable repairs in a timely fashion (in other words: NO CRAZY LANDLORDS.)

*Ready to move in immediately--no major renovations or repairs required

*Bathtub--not just a shower

*Safe neighborhood that would feel okay to walk in by myself at night, with appropriate building security (e.g., bars on ground floor windows, if any)

The above are non-negotiable, "nice to have" would include:

*no emlak, direct from landlord

*more than one balcony (one for the cats, one for the plants)

*elevator if it's on a high floor

*lots of closets and storage space

I'm willing to pay someone a reasonable fee to help me find this quickly. Get in touch with me or leave a comment if you know of something suitable.

The main consideration here is that I need to move very quickly, and can't take time off of work. So I don't want to see apartments that don't meet the criteria above.

Thanks!

4/23/2010 Skype Meeting Transcript

2010-04-28T00:21:00.001+03:00

Jor El believes in transparency. Here's what we talk about when you're not around.

[4/23/2010 11:55:41 AM] *** Ayse Sumer added Claire Berlinski, ivan10000, Knut Milbredt, Okan Altiparmak, Asli Suner ***
[4/23/2010 11:55:49 AM] Ayse Sumer: Hello all
[4/23/2010 11:56:13 AM] Ayse Sumer: Are we ready to start the conversation?
[4/23/2010 11:56:20 AM] Suha Ülgen: Hello.
[4/23/2010 11:56:50 AM] Ayse Sumer: it looks like its just 4 of us - Claire is having trouble with her connection and will go in and out
[4/23/2010 11:57:00 AM] Ayse Sumer: Viktor are you there?
[4/23/2010 11:57:04 AM] ivan10000: Im here.. listening..
[4/23/2010 11:57:25 AM] Ayse Sumer: great did you all read the latest postings on the discussion board re ngo status?
[4/23/2010 11:57:41 AM] Suha Ülgen: No. I didn't.
[4/23/2010 11:57:58 AM] Ayse Sumer: The Turkish lawyer and the US lawyer gave their recommendations......I suggest that you look at it while we are talking
[4/23/2010 11:58:13 AM] Suha Ülgen: Thanks. I'll look at it.
[4/23/2010 11:59:03 AM] Ayse Sumer: My conversation with the US lawyer was interesting - there are some details that we need to iron out on both sides but the essence is that he recommends that we become a US charitable organization
[4/23/2010 11:59:18 AM] Ayse Sumer: that will give us a tax exempt status rather than be an ngo
[4/23/2010 11:59:47 AM] Ayse Sumer: we can receive donations and the donors can use that for tax purposes
[4/23/2010 12:00:22 PM] Ayse Sumer: I need to find someone who knows the tax exempt status application which apparently is the difficult process
[4/23/2010 12:01:50 PM] Ayse Sumer: In the meantime Asli is communicating with the lawyer in Turkey. While those discussions are going I have started looking and talking to some potential celebrity endorsers
[4/23/2010 12:02:05 PM] Ayse Sumer: Viktor how is your fund raising concert coming along?
[4/23/2010 12:02:16 PM] ivan10000: oh
[4/23/2010 12:02:20 PM] ivan10000: that' sjust a litle party
[4/23/2010 12:02:27 PM] ivan10000: there is going to be a big concert
[4/23/2010 12:02:38 PM] ivan10000: in june.. not announced yet
[4/23/2010 12:02:45 PM] ivan10000: this is the warm up
[4/23/2010 12:02:47 PM] Ayse Sumer: I seriously would like to try and organize one for Jor EL
[4/23/2010 12:03:03 PM] Ayse Sumer: where and who is helping you?
[4/23/2010 12:03:37 PM] ivan10000: a concert promoter who approached us and volunteer to do this because he loves dogs.. this is what I tried
[4/23/2010 12:03:42 PM] ivan10000: to bring the other day into the pic
[4/23/2010 12:03:48 PM] ivan10000: the larger your community
[4/23/2010 12:03:54 PM] ivan10000: the bigger possibilities it creates
[4/23/2010 12:04:04 PM] ivan10000: if we had to pay for ANYTHING there would be no LEt's Adopt
[4/23/2010 12:04:36 PM] ivan10000: on the other hand as fund raising events dont really work..
[4/23/2010 12:04:36 PM] Ayse Sumer: that is great the concert and celebrity endorser I'm reaching out to might actually do one for jor el if we approach it right
[4/23/2010 12:05:00 PM] ivan10000: Ill email you a study prepared by a consultancy on fund raising matters (confidential.. someone paid top $$$ for it)
[4/23/2010 12:06:31 PM] Ayse Sumer: sure - when I say fundraising I'm talking about a concert organized with donors for all the necessary equipment, space, and charging tickets to attendees - that would be the monies coming to the organization
[4/23/2010 12:06:44 PM] Ayse Sumer: anyhow what do you all think about theUS entity?
[4/23/2010 12:08:13 PM] ivan10000: Hierarchies are there just to slow down progress..
you need an organization as flat as possible...
I may sound like the hippy-anarchist here but I dont really see the point of any sort of registration at this stage yet..
anyway. that is just me.. I'm usually wrong.
[4/23/2010 12:09:09 PM] Suha Ülgen: Do we know everything we need to know about it to decide? Browsing the discussion I get the impression that we don't.
[4/23/2010 12:09:40 PM] Ayse Sumer: Its not a matter of wrong or right idea - just what works the best for us - consensus - also any form of an entity is min 6 months but we need to think about it and after deciding start the process
[4/23/2010 12:10:29 PM] Ayse Sumer: I will have further information next week - talking to another lawyer/tax consultant and the NGO based out of US that works in turkey experience will be interesting
[4/23/2010 12:10:31 PM] ivan10000: I just finished reading a book by Richard Branson.. it's called Screw it, Let's Do it!
The guy specifically advises start up and NGO's to forget about any sort of paperwork until it is really unavoidable.
He says many great ideas dont leave the idea stage because people start flying around like butterflies around a lamp and in the end they burn out.
[4/23/2010 12:11:36 PM] Ayse Sumer: I've read a bit about that as well - and am not disputing it at all - but if and when we start it would be good to be prepared and ready to go -
[4/23/2010 12:11:38 PM] Suha Ülgen: Can someone summarize how the exercise went? I don't have a good sense of what was accomplished. Let's assess the experience to build on what worked.
[4/23/2010 12:11:44 PM] Claire Berlinski: OK, I'm here.
[4/23/2010 12:11:54 PM] Claire Berlinski: I can go across the street to the Internet cafe ...
[4/23/2010 12:11:58 PM] Ayse Sumer: I'll let Victor and Claire tell that
[4/23/2010 12:12:07 PM] Claire Berlinski: but I may be stable for now.
[4/23/2010 12:12:26 PM] ivan10000: I wasn't part of it but I read this blog post
[4/23/2010 12:12:29 PM] ivan10000: http://www.journalistinturkey.com/blogs/party-lots-of-drunken-guests_1285/
[4/23/2010 12:12:35 PM] ivan10000: describes is pretty well I guess
[4/23/2010 12:13:00 PM] Claire Berlinski: OK ... the main problem was that we didn't have enough volunteers to input the data.
[4/23/2010 12:13:06 PM] Suha Ülgen: Thanks.
[4/23/2010 12:13:25 PM] Claire Berlinski: People did a great job with the Tweets, but it's hard to assess how usable the software was, because not enough people tried to use it.
[4/23/2010 12:14:05 PM] Claire Berlinski: What we need to do in the next exercise is go to the universities and get a class of students who will commit to doing that, maybe for extra-credit in a class.
[4/23/2010 12:14:12 PM] Ayse Sumer: Claire is having a hard time joining in - from what I read it was a good start but the problems seems to be on mapping and entering data
[4/23/2010 12:14:37 PM] Claire Berlinski: I asked people for feedback about why they didn't input -- was it confusing, were there problems ---
[4/23/2010 12:14:42 PM] Claire Berlinski: but the feedback was limited.
[4/23/2010 12:14:51 PM] Suha Ülgen: I am working on a project that addresses that issue.
[4/23/2010 12:15:04 PM] Claire Berlinski: Basically, I suspect people were comfortable doing what they already knew how to do --using Twitter --
[4/23/2010 12:15:12 PM] Claire Berlinski: but didn't want to learn to do something new.
[4/23/2010 12:15:29 PM] Claire Berlinski: Not surprising.
[4/23/2010 12:15:55 PM] Claire Berlinski: Yes, Ayse ... I'm here, can you see this?
[4/23/2010 12:16:23 PM] Claire Berlinski: Which issue exactly ...
[4/23/2010 12:16:57 PM] *** Ayse Sumer added Liam Hardy ***
[4/23/2010 12:17:21 PM] Ayse Sumer: how do you feel about the whole exercise?
[4/23/2010 12:17:34 PM] Ayse Sumer: yes
[4/23/2010 12:17:56 PM] Ayse Sumer: we started talking about the ngo status and moved on to the dry-run
[4/23/2010 12:18:27 PM] Claire Berlinski: I think the exercise was very successful given that it was the first time we tried the system.
[4/23/2010 12:18:43 PM] Claire Berlinski: Now we know what we need to do to make it work the next time.
[4/23/2010 12:19:05 PM] Suha Ülgen: Patrick Meier of CrisisMappersNet is putting together a University Network of Crisis Commons. I offered to help him get Bogazici University Kandilli Rasathanesi and Earthquake Research Institute on the network which he was very pleased to hear. BU/KOERI may very well be the university node we are looking for in Turkey.
[4/23/2010 12:19:08 PM] Ayse Sumer: Suha suggested that before we move on with any status declaration we shoud review the dry run
[4/23/2010 12:19:36 PM] Claire Berlinski: Great.
[4/23/2010 12:20:03 PM] Ayse Sumer: Look one other idea we did mention but did not dwell on is being part of a University - private - which would give us an interesting status
[4/23/2010 12:20:03 PM] Claire Berlinski: I spoke to Crisis Commons people in London and the US last week -- they know what we're doing and want to support it in any way they can.
[4/23/2010 12:20:18 PM] Liam Hardy: hello everyone. sorry for joining late.
[4/23/2010 12:20:30 PM] Suha Ülgen: Who is providing technical support for the Turkish instance of USHAHIDI?
[4/23/2010 12:20:37 PM] Claire Berlinski: Ayse, here's one of my -- hi Liam -- biggest concerns.
[4/23/2010 12:20:53 PM] Claire Berlinski: Knut Milbrecht, for now.
[4/23/2010 12:21:10 PM] Claire Berlinski: We have many people who can in principle help, but he's doing the heavy lifting.
[4/23/2010 12:21:39 PM] Claire Berlinski: OK, as status goes, here's my biggest concern.
[4/23/2010 12:21:44 PM] ivan10000: Claire.. that is ok.. there is always someone to do the heavy lifting
[4/23/2010 12:21:44 PM] Suha Ülgen: OK. I'll follow up with him separately on the technical issues. I notice that the site is rater sluggish in response.
[4/23/2010 12:22:30 PM] Claire Berlinski: We all know that the main problem, the biggest problem, is construction standards. That improving emergency preparation is critical, urgent,
[4/23/2010 12:22:49 PM] Claire Berlinski: but that the biggest problem by far is that so many buildings will collapse.
[4/23/2010 12:23:11 PM] Claire Berlinski: We also know -- as does anyone who lives in Turkey and has the slightest real experience with the country --
[4/23/2010 12:23:29 PM] Claire Berlinski: that the obstacles to solving this are corruption, bureaucracy, and political incompetence.
[4/23/2010 12:23:39 PM] Claire Berlinski: If we do not say this frankly,
[4/23/2010 12:23:57 PM] Claire Berlinski: we are not really addressing the heart of the problem. We're putting band aids on it.
[4/23/2010 12:24:24 PM] Claire Berlinski: When I spoke to the Crisis COmmons people on the conference call and said this, there was sort of a stunned silence,
[4/23/2010 12:24:40 PM] Claire Berlinski: and then I was quickly told that they "didn't want to talk about things like that, because they want to be non-political."
[4/23/2010 12:24:47 PM] Ayse Sumer: in that case we really need to reach out to architects and construction companies whom we can identify as responsible and knowledged people to work with us on the building codings to start with
[4/23/2010 12:25:02 PM] Claire Berlinski: OK, I get that ... but that's like saying, "We don't want to talk about the fact that you have cancer, so let's treat your acne."
[4/23/2010 12:25:32 PM] Claire Berlinski: I am worried about getting under an umbrella -- whether it's an NGO or a private university or whatever --
[4/23/2010 12:25:42 PM] Ayse Sumer: unfortunately there is no way we can get away from those dreaded things so we work with and around it and start a process
[4/23/2010 12:25:49 PM] Claire Berlinski: that says to us, "We can't say that because people will be offended."
[4/23/2010 12:26:17 PM] Claire Berlinski: Me, I'm offended by the idea of tens of thousands of kids being crushed to death because no one will say these things.
[4/23/2010 12:26:19 PM] Ayse Sumer: that is why I suggested that we become our own entity - boss
[4/23/2010 12:26:23 PM] ivan10000: Well... I have a little experience dealing with construction companie . Consruction has improved radically since the last earthquake.. everythin gthat is newly built
[4/23/2010 12:26:53 PM] ivan10000: is built up to very stringent specs... the problem are the mutahit and the gecekondu constructions
[4/23/2010 12:26:59 PM] Claire Berlinski: Ivan, it has to an extent -- but remember I have some experience with them too.
[4/23/2010 12:27:05 PM] Claire Berlinski: Some really bad experience.
[4/23/2010 12:27:15 PM] Claire Berlinski: Some of the companies are great and very responsible,
[4/23/2010 12:27:21 PM] Ayse Sumer: at least internally if we have strength and consensus we can show a good force to the outside
[4/23/2010 12:27:28 PM] Claire Berlinski: others are murderers, and they get away with it.
[4/23/2010 12:27:45 PM] Claire Berlinski: But my point is ... we have to be able to say the truth, or we're wasting our time.
[4/23/2010 12:28:34 PM] Ayse Sumer: look we all know the problems so lets get going and see where it leads us - lets start and I for one am not interesting in telling people what they want to hear - in other words lie and cheat
[4/23/2010 12:28:35 PM] Claire Berlinski: Whatever formal status we adopt, that's my main concern: Not putting ourselves in a situation where people can say to us, "You shouldn't say that because we're funded by X, or sponsored by the government," or "We're afraid people will get upset with us."
[4/23/2010 12:29:10 PM] Ayse Sumer: that is why we become our own entity
[4/23/2010 12:29:24 PM] Claire Berlinski: So ... I'm raising this issue as one that we need to really be aware of before getting under the umbrella, say, of a private university.
[4/23/2010 12:29:41 PM] Ayse Sumer: I understand that Claire
[4/23/2010 12:30:04 PM] Claire Berlinski: Because as people who really live in Turkey know (as opposed to people who think they know about Turkey), a lot of those universities are part of the crony system.
[4/23/2010 12:30:11 PM] Ayse Sumer: we have to put all options on the table and feel confident that we've not left anything out
[4/23/2010 12:31:04 PM] Ayse Sumer: Liam how come we dont see any of the things you are writing?
[4/23/2010 12:31:11 PM] Claire Berlinski: So the problems as I see it are: 1) how do we legally raise funds; 2) how do we minimize the bureaucratic hassle, and 3) how do we do this in the fastest, most efficient way possible.
[4/23/2010 12:31:24 PM] Liam Hardy: I'm just gonna jump in even though I don't know all that was previously discussed. I commute across the city for work from Beşiktaş to İkitele and see how terrible the situation is. I don't know if this is the vision you have for Jor El, but I see there needs to be some kind of system in place targeting and seeking out the opportunities to buy and demolish some of these buildings.
[4/23/2010 12:31:50 PM] Claire Berlinski: Ivan's answer -- no need for a formal organization at all -- won't work, because we cannot legally accept funds without one.
[4/23/2010 12:32:00 PM] Liam Hardy: is Jor El going to totally response oriented or prevention or both? just curious
[4/23/2010 12:32:30 PM] Claire Berlinski: Liam, that's a good point, but I think it would be good if you read in on the discussion boards -- a lot of this has been discussed.
[4/23/2010 12:32:57 PM] Ayse Sumer: so the question is do we want to be a US or TR entity? And then go from there
[4/23/2010 12:33:16 PM] Liam Hardy: ok - ill go back after the conversation and see what's been said
[4/23/2010 12:34:03 PM] Claire Berlinski: Ayse, from what I understand, we still don't have the information we need to make that decision, because from what I understood from Asli, the attorney with whom she spoke didn't feel she had enough information to advise us about that.
[4/23/2010 12:34:52 PM] Ayse Sumer: She does not have the US details, which I am complete by Monday and she can review it there
[4/23/2010 12:35:08 PM] Claire Berlinski: My gut strongly says a US entity, for a lot of reasons -- ease of establishment, independence, the possibility of making Jor El something broader than just an Istanbul-based organization. (I've already found people in Santo Domingo who are interested, for example.)
[4/23/2010 12:35:14 PM] Ayse Sumer: great grammer - I meant I will complete the info
[4/23/2010 12:35:34 PM] Claire Berlinski: I understood.
[4/23/2010 12:35:53 PM] Ayse Sumer: I agree that is what I had in mind expanding it to more than Istanbul
[4/23/2010 12:36:35 PM] Claire Berlinski: Ayse, did you get the draft mission statement?
[4/23/2010 12:36:44 PM] Ayse Sumer: no when did you send it?
[4/23/2010 12:36:59 PM] Ayse Sumer: I will work with the lawyer on that info
[4/23/2010 12:36:59 PM] Claire Berlinski: This morning.
[4/23/2010 12:37:04 PM] Ayse Sumer: to where?
[4/23/2010 12:37:19 PM] Claire Berlinski: It's too long,
[4/23/2010 12:37:36 PM] Claire Berlinski: but with a little cutting it should do the job -- to your e-mail address.
[4/23/2010 12:37:49 PM] Ayse Sumer: dont have it just checked not here - aysses@yahoo.com
[4/23/2010 12:38:30 PM] Claire Berlinski: I'll re-send it when the Internet's less buggy.
[4/23/2010 12:38:41 PM] Ayse Sumer: okey please do
[4/23/2010 12:38:48 PM] Claire Berlinski: I don't want to take the chance of getting disconnected now.
[4/23/2010 12:39:16 PM] Suha Ülgen: A bit late in responding but - I agree with Claire. We have to say the truth. But also we must find ways to empower the people to help themselves. My suggestion for getting BU/KOERI involved was to get them to facilitate the deployment of a Crisis Commons node to respond to an emergency. Nothing more at the moment. We would hope that the emergency occurs somewhere else in the world before it happens in Turkey so that we have some practice under our belt.
[4/23/2010 12:39:44 PM] Claire Berlinski: Yes, that's a great idea, Suha.
[4/23/2010 12:40:09 PM] Claire Berlinski: In fact, I couldn't agree more that working on a project like this when there's a real emergency is the only way to completely understand it ...
[4/23/2010 12:40:17 PM] Ayse Sumer: So I'm thinking that we all review everything by next week and then touch base - all please read posts as we post all info there
[4/23/2010 12:40:18 PM] Claire Berlinski: that, unfortunately, was how I learned.
[4/23/2010 12:40:43 PM] Ayse Sumer: yes its the fastest teacher
[4/23/2010 12:41:16 PM] Claire Berlinski: And if BU/KOERI people were working on something like this in real time, as it was deployed, they'd be really in good shape if they had to use it in Istanbul.
[4/23/2010 12:41:37 PM] Ayse Sumer: my friend who was working for a week in Haiti as a nurse just returned back and she still cant put into words what happened there
[4/23/2010 12:41:38 PM] Claire Berlinski: Not that, God forbid, I am wishing for an emergency anywhere in the world.
[4/23/2010 12:42:14 PM] Ayse Sumer: did you hear about the earthquake in Chile today?
[4/23/2010 12:42:28 PM] Claire Berlinski: This is why I go nuts when people tell me -- yes, I did, but it seems there were no reports of casualties.
[4/23/2010 12:42:54 PM] Claire Berlinski: it's why I go nuts when people tell me that we can't discuss the real issues because it's too "political."
[4/23/2010 12:43:03 PM] Suha Ülgen: That's interesting. GDACS did not send an alert message!
[4/23/2010 12:43:17 PM] Claire Berlinski: Children in Haiti having their limbs amputated WITHOUT ANESTHESIA.
[4/23/2010 12:43:17 PM] Ayse Sumer: it was 6.1
[4/23/2010 12:43:36 PM] Claire Berlinski: That's what happens when buildings collapse and there are no preparations for dealing with the aftermath.
[4/23/2010 12:44:04 PM] Claire Berlinski: Twitter, Suha --
[4/23/2010 12:44:19 PM] Claire Berlinski: it's far more reliable and fast than any other source of news.
[4/23/2010 12:44:59 PM] Ayse Sumer: yes Suha get on board please!
[4/23/2010 12:45:04 PM] Claire Berlinski: Follow my earthquake list and you'll be the first to know about any shaking, anywhere in the world.
[4/23/2010 12:46:00 PM] ivan10000: Well.. two nights ago our bed started shaking incontrolably.. Fulya was freaking out .. it turned out it was Chak Chak, our orange tabby scratching!
[4/23/2010 12:46:06 PM] Suha Ülgen: I should set my alert threshold lower AND get on twitter.
[4/23/2010 12:46:13 PM] Ayse Sumer: there was an article today I have yet to post on fb will send to you about the movement on and in earth
[4/23/2010 12:46:36 PM] Ayse Sumer: naughty Chak Chak~
[4/23/2010 12:46:53 PM] Claire Berlinski: I need to go soon to enjoy the family that is still alive, thank God ...
[4/23/2010 12:47:07 PM] Ayse Sumer: okey what is the next plan?
[4/23/2010 12:47:27 PM] Claire Berlinski: 1) Read the mission statement, which I'll resend in a moment.
[4/23/2010 12:47:32 PM] Claire Berlinski: 2) Send back suggestions,
[4/23/2010 12:47:39 PM] Claire Berlinski: 3) I'll post for group feedback.
[4/23/2010 12:47:59 PM] Ayse Sumer: we all get the necessary info - and then touch base next week
[4/23/2010 12:48:04 PM] Claire Berlinski: 4) Take this to lawyer in US and ask about getting a status there that would allow us to receive funds with minimum hassle.
[4/23/2010 12:48:11 PM] Claire Berlinski: 5) If we can find one, we do it.
[4/23/2010 12:48:13 PM] Ayse Sumer: tamam
[4/23/2010 12:48:18 PM] Claire Berlinski: 6) Start raising funds.
[4/23/2010 12:48:29 PM] Suha Ülgen: Good plan!
[4/23/2010 12:48:36 PM] Claire Berlinski: 7) Suha will get his university contacts involved in the project;
[4/23/2010 12:48:50 PM] Suha Ülgen: Agreed.
[4/23/2010 12:49:35 PM] Claire Berlinski: 9) I don't think my Internet connection is good enough for me to post these notes right now, but I will.
[4/23/2010 12:49:53 PM] Liam Hardy: good plan. this looks like a great project and hope i can contribute somehow later on
[4/23/2010 12:50:02 PM] Claire Berlinski: is everyone comfortable with having everything else posted?
[4/23/2010 12:50:11 PM] Claire Berlinski: Liam, we will totally put you to work.
[4/23/2010 12:50:21 PM] Claire Berlinski: We will give you as much work as you can handle.
[4/23/2010 12:50:22 PM] Liam Hardy: fine by me
[4/23/2010 12:50:34 PM] Suha Ülgen: Yes.
[4/23/2010 12:50:38 PM] Ayse Sumer: yes you being in Turkey helps
[4/23/2010 12:50:51 PM] Suha Ülgen: Who is in Turkey?
[4/23/2010 12:50:55 PM] Claire Berlinski: Liam, could you send me your regular e-mail address?
[4/23/2010 12:51:04 PM] Suha Ülgen: Oh. I get it.
[4/23/2010 12:51:16 PM] Claire Berlinski: I'll send these notes to this group first before posting. I usually am.
[4/23/2010 12:51:30 PM] Claire Berlinski: Right now I'm in the Dominican Republic.
[4/23/2010 12:51:36 PM] Liam Hardy: sure
[4/23/2010 12:51:49 PM] Ayse Sumer: Liam is
[4/23/2010 12:51:54 PM] Claire Berlinski: (I don't have a fetish for seismic zones, I'm just visiting my family.)
[4/23/2010 12:51:59 PM] Suha Ülgen: Claire, when are you going back to Turkey?
[4/23/2010 12:52:10 PM] Claire Berlinski: I have everyone else's e-mail address, right?
[4/23/2010 12:52:37 PM] Liam Hardy: I'm here until the end of July.
[4/23/2010 12:52:55 PM] Ayse Sumer: I'm there the whole month of June so I would love to take this opportunity and meet with you guys to go over things
[4/23/2010 12:52:59 PM] Claire Berlinski: Uh oh ... I think I've been cut off again. Anyone there?
[4/23/2010 12:53:49 PM] Claire Berlinski: Wow, this is like post-quake communication ... Facebook ok, e-mail out, Skype down, Twitter on and off.
[4/23/2010 12:53:56 PM] Ayse Sumer: for our marketing whether it be fund raising, bring awareness advertising etc..
[4/23/2010 12:54:17 PM] Ayse Sumer: it'll be like our cart visit
[4/23/2010 12:54:42 PM] Liam Hardy: ok- looking forward to catching up
[4/23/2010 12:54:53 PM] Claire Berlinski: May 10.
[4/23/2010 12:54:55 PM] ivan10000: ok guys.. a few months ago an amateur film maker made a short movie
[4/23/2010 12:54:57 PM] ivan10000: 5 minutes
[4/23/2010 12:55:00 PM] Ayse Sumer: will talk later Liam
[4/23/2010 12:55:15 PM] ivan10000: it showed he alien destruction of Montevideo
[4/23/2010 12:55:21 PM] ivan10000: the cost was 300 USD
[4/23/2010 12:55:25 PM] ivan10000: three hundred
[4/23/2010 12:55:28 PM] Ayse Sumer: wow that is good
[4/23/2010 12:55:32 PM] ivan10000: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dadPWhEhVk
[4/23/2010 12:55:38 PM] Ayse Sumer: do you know him?
[4/23/2010 12:55:42 PM] ivan10000: watch his... it goes to prove one point
[4/23/2010 12:55:51 PM] ivan10000: what is needed here is talent
[4/23/2010 12:55:56 PM] Ayse Sumer: I will
[4/23/2010 12:55:57 PM] ivan10000: not money
[4/23/2010 12:56:05 PM] ivan10000: check that link...
[4/23/2010 12:56:38 PM] ivan10000: Im just very concerned that the search for funds will slow down everything
[4/23/2010 12:56:43 PM] Ayse Sumer: yes but as you noted a video has to be made which requires funding whether it be 10 or 1000
[4/23/2010 12:56:43 PM] Liam Hardy: wish I could. youtube still blocked here.
[4/23/2010 12:56:49 PM] ivan10000: well
[4/23/2010 12:56:50 PM] Claire Berlinski: Right ... I'm going to sign off, if I haven't already been cut off,
[4/23/2010 12:57:00 PM] ivan10000: if it is 300 bucks Im happy to pay for it.. :)
[4/23/2010 12:57:01 PM] Claire Berlinski: because I'm not seeing any messages from you.
[4/23/2010 12:57:09 PM] Ayse Sumer: searching for funds should not stop us from doing other work
[4/23/2010 12:57:10 PM] Claire Berlinski: We'll schedule the next call by Doodle again, okay?
[4/23/2010 12:57:16 PM] Ayse Sumer: not at all I dont believe that
[4/23/2010 12:57:28 PM] Ayse Sumer: multitasking Victor on all fronts
[4/23/2010 12:57:36 PM] Ayse Sumer: then things will fall in to place
[4/23/2010 12:57:58 PM] Ayse Sumer: same thing with the status we need to continue the work as we learn of issues and opportunities
[4/23/2010 12:59:45 PM] Ayse Sumer: okey guys it seems that Claire is disconnected again - so lets plan on catching up by midweek - we'll post info on a followup skype call until then continue the hard work and have a wonderful weekend.........

Message for Jor El members

2010-04-24T13:01:00.002+03:00

Hi everyone (a translation volunteer for this message would be great),

1) I'm with my family and their gorgeous but very active 13-month-old baby here in Santo Domingo. I've got only intermittent Internet access, so it's tricky to keep on top of everything. I'm still very much alive, though, and fascinated by all the new comments on the Facebook Wall, so keep them coming.

A few reminders:

1) Would everyone please remember to give the new website a test-drive and let Hilary Chan know how that went for you?

2) We'd like more feedback on the results of our USHAHIDI trial run last week. Was the system clear? Easy to use? Why do people think so few volunteers did the mapping -- was it too complicated? How would you suggest it be improved?

3) Don't forget to check the discussion tabs on fundraising videos and our legal status, where we're debating the merits of becoming an NGO or some other kind of formal organization. We'd like your suggestions and thoughts.

4) New members: Please introduce yourselves on the Wall and let us know what skills you might be able to contribute -- are you an architect, a translator, a structural engineer, a crisis-mapping specialist, just someone with an interest in this issue? The better we know you, the better we can put your skills to good use. Remember, this is a working group, not just a "show your support by joining" group, and we need everyone's participation to make this work. Right now, about 10 people are the really active members who are making things happen. I'd love to see this number double by the end of the week.

Want to become a member of the Jor El elite? Start by introducing yourself, then just dive in: If you see something that needs doing, don't bother to ask; we're not hierarchical or formal here, just jump in and do it. Don't worry, no one will get upset if you do it wrong -- you can't screw anything up. (I do recommend reading through the Wall, though, to get a sense of what's been done and what still needs doing.)

5) If you haven't secured your heavy items to your walls, arranged your furniture so that things won't fall on your bed if there's shaking, filled your apartment with food, water, flashlights, batteries and whatever medication you'd need in an emergency, and made an emergency contact plan with your family, do it today. And spread the word on your Facebook page. Remind another family to do it. Don't wait even another day. We need to be a group that walks the walk as well as we talk the talk. It keeps coming up that many of us know how important this is but still haven't done it. What use is Jor El if it's leadership is decapitated in an earthquake? Go on, do it today.

All my best from sunny, humid, tropical and slow-moving Santo Domingo,

Claire

Skype Conference Transcript

2010-04-15T21:49:00.008+03:00

[15.04.10 17:56:04] Claire Berlinski: Hey everyone, I think we're here.
[15.04.10 17:56:17] Claire Berlinski: Ayse can't talk at the office, but can chat.
[15.04.10 17:56:22] Claire Berlinski: Is that okay?
[15.04.10 17:56:36] Ayse Sumer: hey all
[15.04.10 17:57:28] Claire Berlinski: Asli?
[15.04.10 17:57:37] Claire Berlinski: Hilal's not here yet.
[15.04.10 17:58:08] Claire Berlinski: Well, who'd like some tea?
[15.04.10 17:58:20] Claire Berlinski: Families well?
[15.04.10 17:58:28] Claire Berlinski: Glad we got the small talk out of the way.
[15.04.10 18:01:07] Hilal Ozcan: hi guys
[15.04.10 18:01:13] Ayse Sumer: and the cats
[15.04.10 18:01:18] Claire Berlinski: I love punctual people.
[15.04.10 18:01:22] Claire Berlinski: OK, let's start.
[15.04.10 18:01:42] Claire Berlinski: Ayse, would you please re-post what you said to me before?
[15.04.10 18:01:53] Ayse Sumer: okey
[15.04.10 18:02:05] Claire Berlinski: Meanwhile,
[15.04.10 18:02:17] Claire Berlinski: I've asked Mission 4636 for their budget figures,
[15.04.10 18:02:35] Ayse Sumer: [11:19:08 AM] Ayse Sumer: Go for the NGO status it has to be as the corporations and other entities fm the US and other countries cant really give
monies to a person. It'll be good to legitimize, if for no other reason than to get the tax writeoff. I believe the Rotary is one of the great sources to tap
in to - Turkish or international, I'm looking in to Govt funds from here such as USAID and State to see where we can tap in to. There is a couple of
funds specifically geared for women such as the global fund for women and FINCA - it might be worth going there. I'm looking at some of our
corporations who are our members as well and will proceed from there.
[15.04.10 18:02:35] Claire Berlinski: which should give us a good sense of what realistically is needed to run 4636 Istanbul -- working name.
[15.04.10 18:03:08] Claire Berlinski: I have contacts with Rotary here, actually.
[15.04.10 18:03:49] Ayse Sumer: The other idea was to find a couple of celebrity endorsers from the art/music world, sports and the media/academia which would grab peoples attention
[15.04.10 18:03:56] Ayse Sumer: have them in the video
[15.04.10 18:04:01] Claire Berlinski: Yes.
[15.04.10 18:04:16] Ayse Sumer: do a musical fundraising event open to the public
[15.04.10 18:04:32] Ayse Sumer: I can help with some of the people to talk to from here and am sure so can all of you
[15.04.10 18:04:47] Claire Berlinski: Let's specifically set up a plan for fundraising, though. How long does it take to get NGO status?
[15.04.10 18:04:49] Ayse Sumer: check out the young artists for Haiti they are good
[15.04.10 18:04:59] Ayse Sumer: anyone a lawyer among you
[15.04.10 18:05:12] Claire Berlinski: No, but I bet we can find one on that list.
[15.04.10 18:05:26] Claire Berlinski: Ivan?
[15.04.10 18:05:33] Ayse Sumer: I know tons here and there
[15.04.10 18:05:51] Ayse Sumer: I can check around and see which one has the gratis work they need to fulfill
[15.04.10 18:06:07] Claire Berlinski: Yes, that's what we need.
[15.04.10 18:06:17] ivan10000: what is a lawyer needed for?
[15.04.10 18:06:27] Ayse Sumer: to setup an ngo
[15.04.10 18:06:33] Claire Berlinski: To shepherd the process of applying for NGO status.
[15.04.10 18:06:36] Ayse Sumer: its best to use one
[15.04.10 18:06:48] Ayse Sumer: Asli are you there or not
[15.04.10 18:06:50] ivan10000: why?
[15.04.10 18:06:56] ivan10000: why do you need an NGO status?
[15.04.10 18:07:15] Ayse Sumer: Ivan especially with funding and legitimizing its better
[15.04.10 18:07:24] Claire Berlinski: "|t has to be as the corporations and other entities fm the US and other countries cant really give monies to a person."
[15.04.10 18:07:29] Claire Berlinski: That's the argument for.
[15.04.10 18:07:41] Claire Berlinski: The argument against is that NGOs are bureaucratic money-holes.
[15.04.10 18:07:41] ivan10000: well..
[15.04.10 18:07:50] ivan10000: allow me to disagree.. let me explain
[15.04.10 18:07:54] Claire Berlinski: And there are ... yes, please.
[15.04.10 18:08:03] ivan10000: a corporation is not goin to give money to anybody just because it is an NGO
[15.04.10 18:08:11] ivan10000: corporations are run by people
[15.04.10 18:08:14] ivan10000: and people trust people
[15.04.10 18:08:25] ivan10000: which is why investment banks
[15.04.10 18:08:47] ivan10000: seek star employees that come withah portfolio of investors
[15.04.10 18:08:51] ivan10000: of their own
[15.04.10 18:08:59] ivan10000: it's abotu people..
[15.04.10 18:09:10] ivan10000: legitimacy comes with the work you do
[15.04.10 18:09:13] ivan10000: not with your legal status..
[15.04.10 18:09:26] Claire Berlinski: What are the legal/tax obstacles to accepting money for this project?
[15.04.10 18:09:41] Ayse Sumer: with all due respect Ivan especially in Turkey right now where people do not trust people and there is so much speculation going on to create
from the beginning the image of a legitimate serious organization working for the people is better - yes this is a group run by the people
[15.04.10 18:09:42] Claire Berlinski: I mean, will anyone just sign a check to Jor El Istanbul?
[15.04.10 18:10:14] ivan10000: no
[15.04.10 18:10:16] Ayse Sumer: under what name are you going to accept - what bank account - who is going to be responsible and reliable
[15.04.10 18:10:28] ivan10000: but even if you call it Jor-El Dernek nobody is going to sign a check anyway
[15.04.10 18:10:34] ivan10000: unless they trust YOU
[15.04.10 18:10:37] Claire Berlinski: Sure.
[15.04.10 18:10:38] ivan10000: that's my point
[15.04.10 18:10:45] Claire Berlinski: But is there a DISADVANTAGE to being an NGO?
[15.04.10 18:11:01] Claire Berlinski: Or is it all benefit, apart from the paperwork?
[15.04.10 18:11:04] ivan10000: it has pros and cons
[15.04.10 18:11:11] Claire Berlinski: What are the cons?
[15.04.10 18:11:18] ivan10000: I personally see no benefit at an early stage
[15.04.10 18:11:26] ivan10000: is like going to a race wearing a sky jacket
[15.04.10 18:11:37] ivan10000: marathon wearing a sky jacket
[15.04.10 18:11:41] ivan10000: too heavy
[15.04.10 18:11:42] ivan10000: too hot
[15.04.10 18:11:46] ivan10000: too much stuff to carry around
[15.04.10 18:11:59] ivan10000: but again.. it may serve your purpose
[15.04.10 18:12:11] Claire Berlinski: But the key question is this: Suppose we get funding -- to whom do they write the check?
[15.04.10 18:12:14] ivan10000: you may find soeone willin to put up some money right away
[15.04.10 18:12:22] Ayse Sumer: every status has its pros and cons that is why you shoul talk to a lawyer at least and see your options.
I've worked with ngo's local and international and if marketing and product placement is done well it should be to your benefit
[15.04.10 18:12:25] ivan10000: but I dont think that is how it realistically works
[15.04.10 18:12:52] Ayse Sumer: what is not how it realistically works
[15.04.10 18:13:07] Claire Berlinski: Knut? Hilal?
[15.04.10 18:13:22] Hilal Ozcan: i'm listening
[15.04.10 18:13:28] Knut Milbredt: me too
[15.04.10 18:13:48] Claire Berlinski: Ivan, what's the hot-heavy part of becoming an NGO?
[15.04.10 18:13:54] Claire Berlinski: Why is it so cumbersome?
[15.04.10 18:14:00] ivan10000: cumbersome?
[15.04.10 18:14:05] ivan10000: here is why
[15.04.10 18:14:06] Claire Berlinski: Marathon, etc.
[15.04.10 18:14:07] ivan10000: you need
[15.04.10 18:14:10] ivan10000: 1. a Lawyer
[15.04.10 18:14:13] ivan10000: 2. an accountant
[15.04.10 18:14:25] ivan10000: 3 monthly visits to the derneklar masali
[15.04.10 18:14:26] Claire Berlinski: Yes. And both would be working gratis, and thus slowly.
[15.04.10 18:14:40] Knut Milbredt: what si derneklar masali
[15.04.10 18:14:41] ivan10000: 4. Bi annual meetings
[15.04.10 18:14:48] Ayse Sumer: You need someone to do your accounting whether you are an ngo or not
[15.04.10 18:14:49] ivan10000: the board of associations
[15.04.10 18:14:54] ivan10000: Ayse.. yes
[15.04.10 18:14:56] ivan10000: that is true
[15.04.10 18:15:00] ivan10000: but not at this stage
[15.04.10 18:15:08] ivan10000: what accounting are you going to do when you have no money?
[15.04.10 18:15:10] ivan10000: :-)
[15.04.10 18:15:19] ivan10000: if you look at history
[15.04.10 18:15:23] ivan10000: and specially now
[15.04.10 18:15:26] Ayse Sumer: its too much of a chicken egg
[15.04.10 18:15:30] ivan10000: registration comes much later
[15.04.10 18:15:36] ivan10000: GreenPeace dinot register
[15.04.10 18:15:39] ivan10000: right away
[15.04.10 18:15:50] ivan10000: they did so years after starting operations
[15.04.10 18:16:03] Ayse Sumer: Greenpeace was not in Turkey Ivan
[15.04.10 18:16:14] ivan10000: oh.. burasi turkiye
[15.04.10 18:16:17] ivan10000: you are right..
[15.04.10 18:16:38] Ayse Sumer: find out what you can do as is - where do we all see ourselves
[15.04.10 18:16:43] Ayse Sumer: business plan stages
[15.04.10 18:17:15] Knut Milbredt: first you need a business plan for every kind of corporation you are
[15.04.10 18:17:17] Ayse Sumer: what exactly was that comment? Burasi Turkiye?
[15.04.10 18:17:24] ivan10000: yes...
[15.04.10 18:17:39] ivan10000: you mentioned hat Greenpeace did not start
[15.04.10 18:17:40] ivan10000: in Turkey
[15.04.10 18:17:48] ivan10000: and I said ok... here it may be differnt
[15.04.10 18:17:50] Knut Milbredt: you can't hire sponsors w/o a BP
[15.04.10 18:17:52] ivan10000: or it may not
[15.04.10 18:18:12] ivan10000: Knut.. you can't hire sponsors.. period
[15.04.10 18:18:18] ivan10000: you must charm sponsors
[15.04.10 18:18:23] Ayse Sumer: true enough I've tried to find a student for you all to work with who can put toghether a business plan
[15.04.10 18:18:24] ivan10000: that your ideas and plans are great
[15.04.10 18:18:37] ivan10000: but people dont byy business plans
[15.04.10 18:18:38] Ayse Sumer: that is essetial - our mission/vision/plan a plan b
[15.04.10 18:18:40] Claire Berlinski: OK. Let's say we charm a sponsor.
[15.04.10 18:18:47] ivan10000: For example
[15.04.10 18:18:55] Knut Milbredt: but this doesn't change anything ... first there is a plan
[15.04.10 18:19:06] Claire Berlinski: Can said sponsor legally give Jor El, an undefined entity, money?
[15.04.10 18:19:14] ivan10000: no
[15.04.10 18:19:18] ivan10000: he can'
[15.04.10 18:19:18] Claire Berlinski: Will we have a different tax status as an NGO?
[15.04.10 18:19:23] ivan10000: he can't
[15.04.10 18:19:37] Ayse Sumer: we are not going to necessarily sell the business plan but the concept the plan is for us to give direction as a start up
[15.04.10 18:20:00] Ayse Sumer: so we are back to square one - no monnies without a status that they can identify
[15.04.10 18:20:36] ivan10000: Ayse.. this is like a business
[15.04.10 18:20:45] ivan10000: I tell you how venture capitalists work
[15.04.10 18:20:53] ivan10000: those are people who invest on bsiness
[15.04.10 18:20:57] ivan10000: instead of a bank
[15.04.10 18:21:06] Ayse Sumer: I suppose if one of the companies owned by members could take the money on Jor-El's behalf but this will create
a huge issue with their own tax and accounting
[15.04.10 18:21:12] ivan10000: because no bank invest in a business unless there is a collateral
[15.04.10 18:21:18] ivan10000: so look at it as venture capital
[15.04.10 18:21:26] Claire Berlinski: Hold on, Asli's here ... I think ... Asli?
[15.04.10 18:21:45] ivan10000: when a venture capitalists considers investing on a project he doesn't look at the business plan as much as he looks at the person
[15.04.10 18:21:53] ivan10000: same for hedge funds
[15.04.10 18:21:57] Ayse Sumer: who said anything about a bank investing - if you get people to give monies the companies will give it as part of their
annual social responsibility budget
[15.04.10 18:22:02] ivan10000: is an example...
[15.04.10 18:22:04] Ayse Sumer: others from their own interest and heart
[15.04.10 18:22:07] ivan10000: ok
[15.04.10 18:22:18] ivan10000: sorry.. didn't manage to explain myself.. apologies.
[15.04.10 18:23:15] Ayse Sumer: and then there was silence :)
[15.04.10 18:23:50] Claire Berlinski: Sorry, trying to add Asli.
[15.04.10 18:24:15] Ayse Sumer: she has a block in her status needs to change that in order to participate
[15.04.10 18:24:54] Knut Milbredt: welcome hilal
[15.04.10 18:25:04] Hilal Ozcan: hi there
[15.04.10 18:25:15] Claire Berlinski: Yeah, I just told her that ...
[15.04.10 18:26:47] Ayse Sumer: Look I suggest talking to a lawyer who is not going to take you for your dowry - I'll find one and proceed from there.
Find out your options of different possible statuses available
[15.04.10 18:26:58] Ayse Sumer: and then proceed from there
[15.04.10 18:27:29] Ayse Sumer: in the meantime we should be going out and marketing and looking for sponsors and finding out what kind of options
there are both government and private
[15.04.10 18:28:14] Ayse Sumer: do the video - find a couple of celebrity endorsers these could get moving all at the same time.....have to multitask
[15.04.10 18:29:27] Ayse Sumer: I cant talk on the phone guys - dont have the equipment at home sorryyy
[15.04.10 18:30:06] Ayse Sumer: I meant at the office
[15.04.10 18:31:01] Asli Suner: I am here
[15.04.10 18:31:02] Ayse Sumer: okey we are but shall we use the other window just sent a bunch of things there
[15.04.10 18:31:18] Ayse Sumer: I can fm both windows
[15.04.10 18:31:59] Ayse Sumer: I cant talk fm the office dont have the equipment sorry
[15.04.10 18:32:56] Ayse Sumer: [12:20:52 PM] Ayse Sumer: Look I suggest talking to a lawyer who is not going to take you for your dowry -
I'll find one and proceed from there. Find out your options of different possible statuses available
and then proceed from there
in the meantime we should be going out and marketing and looking for sponsors
and finding out what kind of options there are both government and private
do the video - find a couple of celebrity endorsers these could get moving all at the same time.....have to multitask
I cant talk on the phone guys - dont have the equipment at home sorryyy
[15.04.10 18:33:17] Ayse Sumer: If you are all talking I'll but out and you can let me know later what you plan to do
[15.04.10 18:33:19] Claire Berlinski: Are we all on chat now?
[15.04.10 18:33:41] Asli Suner: I am here
[15.04.10 18:33:49] Ayse Sumer: yep
[15.04.10 18:34:02] Claire Berlinski: OK. We're all here.
[15.04.10 18:34:17] Claire Berlinski: So. Asli, we're debating the pros and cons of getting NGO status.
[15.04.10 18:34:23] Asli Suner: OK
[15.04.10 18:34:33] Claire Berlinski: My sense is that unless there's some obvious drawback to getting it,
[15.04.10 18:34:45] Claire Berlinski: beyond having to spend some time hassling with the bureaucracy,
[15.04.10 18:34:56] Claire Berlinski: we either should go that route,
[15.04.10 18:35:02] Hilal Ozcan: i'm here
[15.04.10 18:35:08] Asli Suner: that'd be the only drawback, as I understand it, the bureaucracy
[15.04.10 18:35:26] Claire Berlinski: or figure out some other way to institutionalize in a way that allows us to receive funds.
[15.04.10 18:35:49] Claire Berlinski: Any other ideas for that?
[15.04.10 18:35:51] Asli Suner: One way we had discussed before was joining an existing NGO as a subbranch
[15.04.10 18:35:59] Ayse Sumer: yes again talk to someone who can give you that advise
[15.04.10 18:36:09] Ayse Sumer: and which one would that be?
[15.04.10 18:36:12] Asli Suner: MAY perhaps?
[15.04.10 18:36:15] Ayse Sumer: how about an association
[15.04.10 18:36:22] Ayse Sumer: rather than an ngo?
[15.04.10 18:36:28] ivan10000: SOME time :-) Bureaucracy never takes SOME time, it takes A LOT of time. Ok, another drawback here, independence.
At some point Jor El will have ot point fingers at the government's inability to handle some issues. A drawback is.. they will try to shot you down.
[15.04.10 18:36:39] Claire Berlinski: My concern about that is that if any of those NGOs were doing such a great, efficient job, why would they need us?
[15.04.10 18:36:45] Asli Suner: I was hoping to get together wth Architecture fr Humanity Istanbul chapter here, but they are not yet an NGO
either and they weren't as resposnive as I hoped
[15.04.10 18:37:12] Claire Berlinski: The problem is that none of these NGOs are doing things fast enough, or efficiently enough.
[15.04.10 18:37:20] Claire Berlinski: And most NGOs don't, honestly.
[15.04.10 18:37:20] Ayse Sumer: I really think an association status might work
[15.04.10 18:37:35] Claire Berlinski: What is the difference between that and NGO status?
[15.04.10 18:37:35] Asli Suner: true, that's partially because of the bureaucracy
[15.04.10 18:37:41] Ayse Sumer: dont know what the different legal application is but
[15.04.10 18:37:55] Asli Suner: what's turkish equivalent of ' association' Ayse?
[15.04.10 18:37:55] Ayse Sumer: it works better - you'd have the business angle
[15.04.10 18:38:00] ivan10000: An association is an NGO
[15.04.10 18:38:06] ivan10000: in Turkey you have two kinds
[15.04.10 18:38:10] ivan10000: of legal sructures
[15.04.10 18:38:12] ivan10000: Dernek
[15.04.10 18:38:14] ivan10000: and Vakif
[15.04.10 18:38:20] Claire Berlinski: Right, got it.
[15.04.10 18:38:21] ivan10000: Dernek = Association
[15.04.10 18:38:27] Ayse Sumer: yes but there are trade ngo's now Vakif is way too differnt
[15.04.10 18:38:30] ivan10000: Vakif = foundation
[15.04.10 18:38:48] Ayse Sumer: as the name states that is another ball game all together
[15.04.10 18:38:51] Ayse Sumer: it could worlk
[15.04.10 18:38:57] Asli Suner: What we were looking into was a 'dernek'
[15.04.10 18:39:08] Claire Berlinski: Hi Suha.
[15.04.10 18:39:18] Suha Ülgen: Hi there.
[15.04.10 18:39:24] Claire Berlinski: I assume you're here for the conference call.
[15.04.10 18:39:38] Suha Ülgen: Yes, are you going to patch me in?
[15.04.10 18:39:42] Claire Berlinski: You're in.
[15.04.10 18:39:45] Claire Berlinski: We're using chat.
[15.04.10 18:39:51] Suha Ülgen: OK.
[15.04.10 18:39:57] Claire Berlinski: Everyone, please meet Suha ..
[15.04.10 18:40:02] Ayse Sumer: Dernekler and Vakiflar kanunlari differ in financial terms
[15.04.10 18:40:04] Ayse Sumer: hi suha
[15.04.10 18:40:07] Suha Ülgen: Hi everyone.
[15.04.10 18:40:12] Asli Suner: Hi Suha
[15.04.10 18:40:24] Ayse Sumer: but I'm not an expert on the differences
[15.04.10 18:40:26] Suha Ülgen: Sorry I am late.
[15.04.10 18:40:27] Claire Berlinski: Suha, perhaps you could introduce yourself.
[15.04.10 18:41:35] Claire Berlinski: Briefly, we're discussing the options for institutionalizing Jor El ... as an NGO, the various legal structures.
[15.04.10 18:42:15] Ayse Sumer: wow that is one long introduction
[15.04.10 18:42:39] Suha Ülgen: I am chatting from Geneva. I work for the UN. I have extensive experience in disaster preparednes and response.
I used to be the Technical Coordinator with OCHA responsible for setting up Humanitarian Information Centers (HIC).
Now I work for the Asisstant Secretary General and Chief Information Communication Technology Officer of the UN Secretariat.
Marla Petal is my wife. That's all for now.
[15.04.10 18:43:09] Ayse Sumer: Hello fm one UN person to another
[15.04.10 18:43:24] Claire Berlinski: Thanks! OK ... perhaps you could weigh in on the debate.
[15.04.10 18:43:43] Claire Berlinski: Is there a compelling reason to choose one form of legal structure for Jor El over another?
[15.04.10 18:44:13] Suha Ülgen: I am not an expert on legal matters especially if you are talking about the Turkish context.
[15.04.10 18:44:37] Hilal Ozcan: same reason i'm silent.
[15.04.10 18:44:38] Claire Berlinski: We're discussing fundraising, and starting with the question -- what does Jor El need to be, to raise funds.
[15.04.10 18:45:21] Asli Suner: I don't think VAKIF would be the way to go.
[15.04.10 18:45:30] Knut Milbredt: suha, if you omit the turkish context, what will be your proposal?
[15.04.10 18:46:06] Suha Ülgen: An NGO of course. Or work under an existing NGO. Marla may be able to help.
[15.04.10 18:46:14] Knut Milbredt: ok
[15.04.10 18:46:48] Claire Berlinski: You say of course ... Ivan is arguing that the cost of doing this, in terms of bureaucracy and time-wasting, is quite high.
[15.04.10 18:47:12] Claire Berlinski: As for working under an existing NGO: Do any come to mind?
[15.04.10 18:47:19] Suha Ülgen: I understand it is very difficult and expensive to establish a Vakif in Turkey. Although there are a couple of exiisting ones
which would look favorably to the idea.
[15.04.10 18:47:28] ivan10000: Suha, Ivan here, you know me as Viktor Larkhill, the crazy dog rescuer.. Dont you think that at this stage the focus of the group
should be on creating a cohesive group AND building a community around it? there is always tiem to register..
[15.04.10 18:47:51] Knut Milbredt: @claire I think whatever you do it will be associated with terms of bureaucracy and time-wasting
[15.04.10 18:48:05] Suha Ülgen: Hi Victor. It is a small world indeed.
[15.04.10 18:48:32] Ayse Sumer: how about establishing it in the US? and having it be the arm? Is that going to be politically incorrect?
[15.04.10 18:48:49] Claire Berlinski: Ayse -- politically incorrect or no,
[15.04.10 18:48:56] Ayse Sumer: its cheaper and easier here
[15.04.10 18:49:10] Claire Berlinski: it's a fact that the energy behind this is largely coming from the Turkish diaspora and Americans.
[15.04.10 18:49:19] Claire Berlinski: So that idea is interesting.
[15.04.10 18:49:53] Ayse Sumer: and sometimes selling this entity can be more "sexy" in Turkey
[15.04.10 18:49:56] Suha Ülgen: I agreed, the first thing is to build the base to support a sustainable program.
[15.04.10 18:49:58] Claire Berlinski: Anyone see a downside to it beyond the obvious,
[15.04.10 18:50:11] Claire Berlinski: which of course will be the charge that this is an imperialist plot?
[15.04.10 18:50:35] Asli Suner: That'll be the case for sure
[15.04.10 18:50:44] Claire Berlinski: It will be the case no matter what.
[15.04.10 18:50:50] Hilal Ozcan: what are other examples of US-based NGOs functioning for Turkish problems?
[15.04.10 18:50:56] Claire Berlinski: We may as well have the benefits.
[15.04.10 18:51:19] Ayse Sumer: We have ATAA, Turkish Cultural Foundation, Turkish Coalition of America we are not turkish but work for the cause
[15.04.10 18:51:22] Claire Berlinski: I can't think of any, but that doesn't mean there aren't any, or that it's a bad idea.
[15.04.10 18:51:33] ivan10000: Guys.. build the base to support a sustainable program.. in other words.. people, team, ideas, concept, drive... none of this comes with legal status
[15.04.10 18:51:35] Claire Berlinski: I'm liking this idea.
[15.04.10 18:51:38] Hilal Ozcan: i think it's a great idea.
[15.04.10 18:51:49] Claire Berlinski: No one's saying we shouldn't do that, Ivan.
[15.04.10 18:51:55] Claire Berlinski: Just that we need to do both.
[15.04.10 18:52:11] Ayse Sumer: Ivan its a package and we need to multitask at the same time
[15.04.10 18:52:26] Claire Berlinski: I agree.
[15.04.10 18:52:39] Claire Berlinski: OK. What is the next step we need to take to do it this way?
[15.04.10 18:52:44] Claire Berlinski: Because I like the idea.
[15.04.10 18:52:52] Asli Suner: To make things clear - why we are after becoming an NGO is so that we can get some funding, is that right?
[15.04.10 18:53:03] Ayse Sumer: I will talk to our General Counsel and ask what we should do
[15.04.10 18:53:10] Suha Ülgen: I know ATAA was interested in helping Turkey prepare for a disaster. We have good friends leading ATAA we can talk to get their input.
[15.04.10 18:53:11] Claire Berlinski: So that if we get funding, it goes to something that can legally receive it,
[15.04.10 18:53:23] Claire Berlinski: as opposed to Claire Berlinski's bank account,
[15.04.10 18:53:30] ivan10000: ok
[15.04.10 18:53:33] Claire Berlinski: which would suit me fine, but cause some PR problems.
[15.04.10 18:53:35] Ayse Sumer: Suha I am in the thick of things with ATAA and their management here in Washignton
[15.04.10 18:53:36] Claire Berlinski: And tax issues.
[15.04.10 18:53:45] ivan10000: let me make a point and I willshut up on this issue...
[15.04.10 18:53:52] ivan10000: ok, maybe in the old times it was like that.. today the internet has changed everything.
Everyhing is much faster and agile. Most of you know me as the founder of Let's Adopt!... the organization started
with two people and turned into this: http://www.myletsadopt.com/
[15.04.10 18:53:56] Claire Berlinski: You don't have to shut up ...
[15.04.10 18:54:14] ivan10000: We are rescuing in so mnany countries withso many people involved without registration..
[15.04.10 18:54:18] ivan10000: its the IDEA
[15.04.10 18:54:35] ivan10000: find a way to spread the IDEA and you will win people and the fight.
[15.04.10 18:54:51] Claire Berlinski: How's that incompatible with what we're saying?
[15.04.10 18:54:57] Asli Suner: I actually like that
[15.04.10 18:54:59] Hilal Ozcan: so how did you spread the idea then?
[15.04.10 18:55:06] ivan10000: Ideas are incompatible with bureacracy at an early stage
[15.04.10 18:55:40] Ayse Sumer: you are a hopeless romantic Ivan, we should not shut out any idea! and use every avenue - the realistic and the social
[15.04.10 18:56:00] Ayse Sumer: you cant push aside life's beaurocracies
[15.04.10 18:56:09] Claire Berlinski: It's true, he is.
[15.04.10 18:56:13] Claire Berlinski: Here's the thing.
[15.04.10 18:56:15] Asli Suner: Practically we could have a paypal account righ now on the blog
[15.04.10 18:56:17] Claire Berlinski: We need money.
[15.04.10 18:56:39] Ayse Sumer: Opps maybe should not bringin philosophies in to this discussion
[15.04.10 18:56:44] Claire Berlinski: I can't continue doing this without some money. It's a full-time job.
[15.04.10 18:57:00] Ayse Sumer: yes we are back to square one
[15.04.10 18:57:08] Claire Berlinski: We need money for things like television commercials,
[15.04.10 18:57:11] Claire Berlinski: posters,
[15.04.10 18:57:18] Claire Berlinski: photocopies,
[15.04.10 18:57:25] Claire Berlinski: Internet connections,
[15.04.10 18:57:30] Asli Suner: or sponsors
[15.04.10 18:57:44] Hilal Ozcan: can we start creating a budget? that will also help with grant application.
[15.04.10 18:57:47] Claire Berlinski: If we have sponsors,
[15.04.10 18:57:59] Claire Berlinski: Yes -- as I said before, I asked Mission 4636 for their budget figures,
[15.04.10 18:58:05] Claire Berlinski: which we can start with as a model.
[15.04.10 18:58:13] Ayse Sumer: Yes a budget per project is needed
[15.04.10 18:58:20] Hilal Ozcan: what is mission 4636?
[15.04.10 18:58:37] Claire Berlinski: We are going to need programmers, Knut is not enough manpower, however talented he is.
[15.04.10 18:58:38] Asli Suner: but even for sponsors we will need a budget proposal
[15.04.10 18:58:52] Claire Berlinski: Mission 4636 is the USHAHIDI platform in Haiti.
[15.04.10 18:59:11] Claire Berlinski: Staffed with a VERY large number of programmers, coordinators, etc.
[15.04.10 18:59:28] Ayse Sumer: it does not need to be a complicated budget
[15.04.10 18:59:46] Hilal Ozcan: so they came up with the budget after the earthquake.
[15.04.10 19:00:03] Suha Ülgen: Let's look for a sponsor for the short term and prepare a full-fledged proposal for the longer term. All while we are building the idea as Viktor puts it.
[15.04.10 19:00:24] ivan10000: Sorry Im back!... TV Commercials!!!! Why!!!!
[15.04.10 19:00:25] Knut Milbredt: That sounds good
[15.04.10 19:00:31] Ayse Sumer: exactly short term, long term, medium term and proposals per project
[15.04.10 19:00:48] ivan10000: Claire.. do you konw the ROI of a TV commercial?
[15.04.10 19:00:52] Claire Berlinski: OK. Because Ivan, that will be the single most effective way of getting the information to people who need it most.
[15.04.10 19:00:58] ivan10000: 80% of the cases is negative..
[15.04.10 19:01:06] Suha Ülgen: We also have a division of labor among ourselves. Claire cannot do everything.
[15.04.10 19:01:45] Ayse Sumer: I agree - lets put a plan together now and divide the jobs
[15.04.10 19:02:02] Ayse Sumer: 1. Status research - in the US I shall check with counsel
[15.04.10 19:02:08] Claire Berlinski: Let's debate the TV commercials later ... for now, let me keep on Francesca to get me 4636's figures.
[15.04.10 19:02:17] Asli Suner: Commercials are highly competetively priced - unless digiturk perhaps sponsors us !
[15.04.10 19:02:20] Ayse Sumer: 2. In Turkey Asli if I give you the name of a lawyer would you talk to them
[15.04.10 19:02:34] Asli Suner: Sure
[15.04.10 19:02:54] Ayse Sumer: 3. what is the most important on the agenda? Sponsor?
[15.04.10 19:03:16] Claire Berlinski: Let's figure out exactly what would be required legally to become 1) an NGO based here; 2) one that's US-based, or 3) another kind of entity.
[15.04.10 19:03:25] Ayse Sumer: Let everyone take a couple of the options mentioned and contact them, Rotary,
[15.04.10 19:03:38] Claire Berlinski: Sponsor, be it corporate or funding from, say, the USG.
[15.04.10 19:03:45] Ayse Sumer: I will look in to USG and other local entitities for grants and funds
[15.04.10 19:04:04] Claire Berlinski: Hilal, why don't you cover the NSF.
[15.04.10 19:04:10] Ayse Sumer: I cant reach out to my corporates yet until after June
[15.04.10 19:04:16] Claire Berlinski: I've already made contact with PDI.
[15.04.10 19:04:21] Asli Suner: I can contact Lions also, my aunt works with them
[15.04.10 19:04:42] Hilal Ozcan: NSF and alternate sources, I will cover.
[15.04.10 19:04:46] Asli Suner: But for oall of this, we wnned a proposal document, don't we?
[15.04.10 19:05:10] Ayse Sumer: yes we do!
[15.04.10 19:05:13] Claire Berlinski: Yes we do!
[15.04.10 19:05:26] Asli Suner: I think, that's n0.1 in the agenda then
[15.04.10 19:05:30] Claire Berlinski: Yep.
[15.04.10 19:05:32] Ayse Sumer: My tasks:I will talk to ATAA and other TR related entities here, General Counsel, USG funding
[15.04.10 19:05:43] Claire Berlinski: I'll get sample budget figures,
[15.04.10 19:05:50] Ayse Sumer: Even if it is a short precise marketing tool
[15.04.10 19:05:55] Claire Berlinski: and work on a general proposal text.
[15.04.10 19:06:36] Claire Berlinski: Our budget will be a bit different from 4636's, because we have a very different kind of PR challenge.
[15.04.10 19:06:56] Hilal Ozcan: we may need to come with an outline of the items for the grant, just to be ready in advance before deadlines approach.
[15.04.10 19:07:22] Hilal Ozcan: i can put together the outline.
[15.04.10 19:07:34] Ayse Sumer: Claire I can give you the name of a good PR firm whom you can talk and danismak with they'll help and wont ask for money immediately
[15.04.10 19:07:55] Claire Berlinski: Now, don't forget -- I'm leaving for the DR and Haiti on Sunday.
[15.04.10 19:07:55] Suha Ülgen: I will look into aligning with an existing NGO or Vakif and explore potential "angels" to pitch in for the short-term.
[15.04.10 19:08:03] Hilal Ozcan: we would need teamwork to progress with the draft proposal.
[15.04.10 19:08:07] Claire Berlinski: I'll be back on May 10,
[15.04.10 19:08:17] Claire Berlinski: and should have Internet coverage most of that time,
[15.04.10 19:08:28] Claire Berlinski: but obviously I can't meet anyone in person.
[15.04.10 19:08:41] Asli Suner: That shouldn't be a problem
[15.04.10 19:08:51] Ayse Sumer: And I'll leave for TR around the 20th of May so maybe when I'm there we can have a major powwow
[15.04.10 19:09:22] Asli Suner: Ayse - you said you knew of a lawyer whom I can talk to?
[15.04.10 19:09:44] Ayse Sumer: I'll try and get some answers for you by then and yes Asli I will send you her contact info separately
[15.04.10 19:09:56] Asli Suner: She is in istanbul?
[15.04.10 19:09:59] Claire Berlinski: Could you all send me your e-mail addresses?
[15.04.10 19:10:07] Ayse Sumer: yep infact maybe we can do a conference call sometime
[15.04.10 19:10:08] Asli Suner: xxxxxxxxxx
[15.04.10 19:10:11] Claire Berlinski: We should create a small working group for this.
[15.04.10 19:10:11] Knut Milbredt: kxxxxxxxxxx
[15.04.10 19:10:11] Hilal Ozcan: xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[15.04.10 19:10:16] Claire Berlinski: Thanks.
[15.04.10 19:10:18] Ayse Sumer: axxxxxxxxxxxx
[15.04.10 19:11:17] Ayse Sumer: So shall we say that we try and meet again via skype next weekend and go over our findings?
[15.04.10 19:11:18] Claire Berlinski: Suha? Could I get your address, too?
[15.04.10 19:11:20] Suha Ülgen: xxxxxxxxxxx
[15.04.10 19:11:21] Hilal Ozcan: what about regular calls, same timee ach week?
[15.04.10 19:11:36] Ayse Sumer: that's an idea too
[15.04.10 19:11:37] Claire Berlinski: Sounds good to me.
[15.04.10 19:11:39] Asli Suner: we can try
[15.04.10 19:11:52] Claire Berlinski: Does anyone object if I post this chat as the meeting minutes?
[15.04.10 19:12:00] Suha Ülgen: Try to announce the conference call a bit earlier please.
[15.04.10 19:12:06] Claire Berlinski: I did!
[15.04.10 19:12:19] Suha Ülgen: I missed it. sorry.
[15.04.10 19:12:22] Claire Berlinski: It was posted several days ago, I think.
[15.04.10 19:12:24] Ayse Sumer: No - I'm in NY the last weekend but 24 is good
[15.04.10 19:12:42] Claire Berlinski: It's okay ... things are getting missed a lot. It will be better when Hilary's got the site up and running.
[15.04.10 19:12:59] Ayse Sumer: we can actually talk over the weekend
[15.04.10 19:13:22] Claire Berlinski: We have a conference call with Crisis Camps on Saturday, tentatively.
[15.04.10 19:13:32] Claire Berlinski: I'm leaving on Sunday ...
[15.04.10 19:13:38] Suha Ülgen: NY is calling. I'll try to get back as soon as I can.
[15.04.10 19:13:44] Ayse Sumer: oopps forgot
[15.04.10 19:13:48] Claire Berlinski: Say hi for us ...
[15.04.10 19:13:55] Ayse Sumer: :0
[15.04.10 19:14:17] Claire Berlinski: OK. So let's chat at this time next week.
[15.04.10 19:14:32] Claire Berlinski: Has anyone said anything they want me to keep out of the minutes?
[15.04.10 19:14:35] Claire Berlinski: Ivan?
[15.04.10 19:14:36] Asli Suner: Sounds good
[15.04.10 19:14:36] Claire Berlinski: Knut?
[15.04.10 19:14:40] Claire Berlinski: Ayse?
[15.04.10 19:14:41] Claire Berlinski: Hilal?
[15.04.10 19:14:43] Asli Suner: I am good
[15.04.10 19:14:48] Claire Berlinski: Asli?
[15.04.10 19:14:51] Knut Milbredt: yes
[15.04.10 19:14:53] Asli Suner: No problem posting for me
[15.04.10 19:14:55] Ayse Sumer: How about the 22nd its also earth day!
[15.04.10 19:14:57] Claire Berlinski: OK.
[15.04.10 19:15:13] ivan10000: yes
[15.04.10 19:15:14] Hilal Ozcan: i would say 12.30pm would work better for me, if we do it every Thursday.
[15.04.10 19:15:13] Claire Berlinski: That's fine by me too.
[15.04.10 19:15:27] Hilal Ozcan: is it too late for you guys?
[15.04.10 19:15:38] Ayse Sumer: yes since its work time here noon is good lunch break
[15.04.10 19:15:45] Claire Berlinski: What time is that in the DR ... 11:30?
[15.04.10 19:15:49] Claire Berlinski: No, 1:30.
[15.04.10 19:15:53] Claire Berlinski: Right?
[15.04.10 19:15:58] Ayse Sumer: I think its only one hour fm East coast
[15.04.10 19:16:07] Ayse Sumer: 11:30?
[15.04.10 19:16:13] Ayse Sumer: texas time
[15.04.10 19:16:14] Claire Berlinski: Well, let's standardize to Istanbul time.
[15.04.10 19:16:22] Knut Milbredt: UTC?
[15.04.10 19:16:22] Hilal Ozcan: 12.30 texas time?
[15.04.10 19:16:22] Asli Suner: Ayse and Hilal - are you both in the east coast?
[15.04.10 19:16:23] Claire Berlinski: 7:30 Istanbul time.
[15.04.10 19:16:31] Claire Berlinski: Hilal's in Texas.
[15.04.10 19:16:33] Hilal Ozcan: i'm central time.
[15.04.10 19:16:36] Asli Suner: Fine by me
[15.04.10 19:16:43] Ayse Sumer: Im eastcoast
[15.04.10 19:16:57] Claire Berlinski: OK. We're good, I think.
[15.04.10 19:16:58] Hilal Ozcan: ayse, would it work for you 1.30pm your time?
[15.04.10 19:16:59] Suha Ülgen: I am in Geneva
[15.04.10 19:16:59] Ayse Sumer: its 12:30 my time and its fine
[15.04.10 19:17:24] Ayse Sumer: 7:30 Istanbul is 12:30 here
[15.04.10 19:17:34] Claire Berlinski: Indeed it is.
[15.04.10 19:17:46] Claire Berlinski: Let's say 7:30 Istanbul, Earth Day?
[15.04.10 19:17:50] Claire Berlinski: The 22nd?
[15.04.10 19:18:03] Asli Suner: it's a date
[15.04.10 19:18:04] Ayse Sumer: got it 22 April - 7:30 Istanbul time we meet
[15.04.10 19:18:14] Suha Ülgen: Confirmed.
[15.04.10 19:18:21] Claire Berlinski: OK. We'll all report back on our tasks.
[15.04.10 19:18:23] Knut Milbredt: 22nd 7:30pm IST time - ok
[15.04.10 19:18:27] Hilal Ozcan: i have a commitment thursday mornings, i can try next week but in the long term i would need to shift the mtg time for an hour.
[15.04.10 19:18:36] Ayse Sumer: Operation Earth Day has officially begun
[15.04.10 19:18:41] Claire Berlinski: OK. We'll deal with that when it happens.
[15.04.10 19:18:51] Claire Berlinski: Meanwhile,
[15.04.10 19:19:00] Claire Berlinski: has everyone nailed his or her furniture to their walls?
[15.04.10 19:19:08] Claire Berlinski: Stocked up on water?
[15.04.10 19:19:14] Claire Berlinski: Flashlights by the bed?
[15.04.10 19:19:23] Claire Berlinski: Asli -- did you have that done?
[15.04.10 19:19:27] Ayse Sumer: we actually have to do that for the hurricane season
[15.04.10 19:19:53] Claire Berlinski: I hear the sound of an embarassd Asli.
[15.04.10 19:20:04] Asli Suner: that's right
[15.04.10 19:20:17] Suha Ülgen: How about an out-of-town phone number and contact for the family to agree on?
[15.04.10 19:20:28] Claire Berlinski: Check!
[15.04.10 19:20:53] Claire Berlinski: As well as a meeting point here in Istanbul.
[15.04.10 19:21:12] Claire Berlinski: Cagri and I agreed that we'd meet at the base of Tunel, if all systems failed.
[15.04.10 19:21:32] Ayse Sumer: YOu know the safest point in Istanbul is Gumussuyu!
[15.04.10 19:21:46] Asli Suner: How do you know that?
[15.04.10 19:21:50] Claire Berlinski: Sabiha Airport looks pretty good ...
[15.04.10 19:21:56] Ayse Sumer: its one of the most stable locations - learned that at the last earquake I lived there
[15.04.10 19:22:00] Asli Suner: too far too reach
[15.04.10 19:22:09] Claire Berlinski: Hey, Ivan, you still there?
[15.04.10 19:22:16] Asli Suner: Well I am in Cihangir, not too far from Gumussuyu
[15.04.10 19:22:19] Ayse Sumer: is everyone on the Asian side
[15.04.10 19:22:27] Claire Berlinski: No, I'm in Beyoglu.
[15.04.10 19:22:32] Ayse Sumer: probably on the right rock point
[15.04.10 19:22:39] Suha Ülgen: I have to go. If your share this chat in its totality. I can follow it later. Thanks to you all.
[15.04.10 19:22:40] Claire Berlinski: Ayse, I'm not going to post your cell number to the board.
[15.04.10 19:22:46] Claire Berlinski: OK!
[15.04.10 19:22:58] Ayse Sumer: thanks just for you guys
[15.04.10 19:22:58] Claire Berlinski: I should go too.
[15.04.10 19:23:02] Asli Suner: Same here
[15.04.10 19:23:02] Asli Suner: Same here
[15.04.10 19:23:05] Claire Berlinski: Asli, call Cemal.
[15.04.10 19:23:09] Ayse Sumer: ciao and good luck to all
[15.04.10 19:23:13] Asli Suner: I will !! Thanks ..;)
[15.04.10 19:23:24] Claire Berlinski: Good night guys ...
[15.04.10 19:23:29] Asli Suner: Talk soon - Good Night!
[15.04.10 19:23:28] Hilal Ozcan: taker care guys!
[15.04.10 19:23:32] Knut Milbredt: bye to all
[15.04.10 19:23:41] Asli Suner: bye
[15.04.10 19:23:49] Ayse Sumer: hasta la vista

#BuBirTatbikattir Twitter'de/Twitter Dry Run Rules

2010-04-13T08:55:00.000+03:00

Welcome to the new members of the group. Thanks for joining. Some of you may not quite realize what you've joined. Jor El isn't a Facebook group per se, but a working group that is for now using Facebook to communicate. You're very welcome to be part of the group, but we're assuming that everyone who has joined is a volunteer. So we're going to ask you to help.

Gruba yeni uyeleri hosgeldiniz, bizlere katildiginiz icin tesekkur ederiz. Bir kisminiz tam olarak ne yaptigimizi anlamamis olabilirsiniz. Jor El sadece genel Facebook gurubundan cok Facebook iletisim kurmak icin kullanan bir calisma gurub. Guruba katilmaniz bizi memnun eder ama bilmenizi isterizki her katilanin bir gonullu oldugunu dusunerek sizlerden calismalarimiza yardimci olmanizi isteyecegiz.

Right now, we're chiefly working to establish a USHAHIDI platform in Istanbul as a seismic risk mitigation tool. If that doesn't make sense, please read this:

Ilk is olarak Istanbulda uygulamak uzere sismik risk azaltma araci olarak USHAHIDI platformunun benzerinin hazirliklari icersindeyiz. Konuyu irdeleyen ve detayli bilgileri iceren asagidaki linklere gozatabilirsiniz.

http://learningtofight.blogspot.com/2010/02/applying-ushahidis-model-to-disaster.html

http://learningtofight.blogspot.com/2010/02/istabulda-depremden-korunmak-icin_04.html

We've scheduled our first test of the USHAHIDI Istanbul system for next Monday, April 19. (This is subject to change if the system isn't completely debugged and translated by then). Here's what's going to happen, and here's what we need you to do.

Ilk USHAHID Istanbul sistem uygulamasini gelecek hafta Pazartesi, 19 Nisan'da tatbik edecegiz. (Sistemin tam olarak arindirilip tercume edilmesine bagli olarak degisebilir) Uygulanacak olan program ve sizden yapmanizi istedigimiz etaplar asagidaki gibidir.

1) Could everyone who is already on Twitter please follow ClaireBerlinski and ISTANBULTWSTVL.

Lutfen twitter'i kullanan herkes ClaireBerlinski'yi ISTANBULTWSTVL uzerinden takip etsin.

2) Could everyone who is not on Twitter please get on Twitter. (If you're living in a seismic zone, trust me, you want to know how Twitter works.)

Twitter'e uye olmayan lutfen kayit olsun, ozellikle sismik hareketlerin oldugu bolgede yasayanlar Twitter'in nasil calistigini kesinlikle ogrenmek isteyecektir.

3) We need volunteers to input incoming Tweets. You'll need some knowledge of Istanbul geography to do this. If you think you can do it, have a look at http://www.depremak.org/, and see if you can figure it out from the instructions. If you can't, the instructions need to be clearer, so let us know what you don't understand. Please let us know if you can volunteer.

Gelen Tweet'leri kaydedecek gonullulere ihtiyacimiz olucak. Istanbul'un cografyasini bilmek gerekiyor. Yapabilecegini dusunen herkes lutfenhttp://www.depremak,org sitesini incelesin ve talimatlari dikkatle inceleyin. Yapamazsaniz, talimatlarin daha net ve acik olmasi gerekir, lutfen bu konuda bizleri bilgilendirin. Gonullu olmak isteyenler lutfen bize bildirin.

Here's what's going to happen. At 10:00 am Istanbul time, we're going to pretend that there's been a massive earthquake in Istanbul. For the sake of the exercise, we're going to assume that phones are down, but some people have access to Twitter. (This is not fanciful: It's exactly what happened in Haiti.) People participating in the exercise -- that's you -- will Tweet about it. Use your imaginations. Report collapsed buildings, fires, injuries.

Do it just the way you would if it had really happened and you were really panicking, emotional, and not thinking straight, EXCEPT,

WE MUST MAKE SURE THESE TWEETS DO NOT PANIC PEOPLE. So, we're going to use code.

Uygulanacak olan kurgu asagidaki gibi gerceklesek. Istanbul saati ile sabah 10'de buyuk olcekli bir depremin olduguna dair haber gondericegiz, hareketin gecerliligi acisinda telefon sisteminin tamamen cokmus oldugu varsayacagiz ve sadece bir kisimin kisilerin twitter kullanma imkani oldugunu var sayacagiz. (bu bir hayali dusunce degil - Haiti de aynen bu olmustu.) Bu uygulamaya katilanlar - yani sizler - derhal tweet gondermeye basliyacaksiniz. Hayal gucunuzu kullanin, cokmus binalar, yanginlar, yaralilar gibi durumlari bildireceksiniz. Boyle bir seyin oldugu zaman nasil hareket ederseniz oyle hareket etmeniz gerekir, yani panik, duygusallik, dogru dusunememek AMA EN ONEMLI NOKTA BU TWEETLERIN ETRAFA VE DURUMUN ICINDE OLMIYANLARA PANIK YARATMAMAK....O yuzdendirki kod sistemi kullanacagiz....

The rules:
Kurallar:

a. All Tweets must be prefaced #BuBirTatbikattir.
Tum Tweet'lerin basina #BuBirTatbikattir ibaresi kullanilacak.

b. Use the word PARTY for EARTHQUAKE
Deprem icin PARTY kelimesini kullanin

c. Use the word LIGHT for FIRE
Yangin icin LIGHT kelimesini kullanin

d. Use the word GUESTS for INJURED
Yaralilar icin GUESTS kelimesini kullanin

e. Use the word CLUB for COLLAPSED BUILDINGS
Cokmus binalar icin CLUB kelimesini kullanin

So, e.g., "#BuBirTatbikattir. RT #party at Galatasaray 50 guests in club by post office."

Orne "#BuBirTatbikattir. RT #Party Galatasarayda 50 GUEST posta ofisinin yanidaki CLUB'da

We'd like you to keep Tweeting until midnight. The volunteers are going to see if they can find all the relevant Tweets and input them into the system. We should be able to see pretty quickly whether it works. If it does, we're going to do it again with AKUT, who are going to practice getting real rescuers to the sites that are reported.

Tweet'ler gece yarisina kadar devam edecek. Gonulluler ilgili tum tweetleri kaydetmeye calisacaklar. Bu calismanin basarili olup olmadigini kisa zamanda belirliyebilecegiz. Eger uygulama iyi olursa bu tatbikati AKUT ile uygulayacagiz, ve onlar gercek ekiplerle bildirilen yerlere gidicekler.

Notes from yesterday's crisis-mapping meeting

2010-04-03T12:20:00.001+03:00

The good stuff is all on the Facebook group now, and soon we'll have a dedicated Jor El website. I'm just posting this here so that we have a non FB backup for now.

Here's the plan from the crisis-mapping meeting yesterday (April 2) with Aysegul Duygu Saylam (of Istanbul Twestival), Asli Suner, and Bayram Yildizoglu. Knut Milbrendt phoned in from Germany.

1) No point waiting for help setting up the platform. I'm going to see if it's really that simple to download and customize the USHAHIDI platform, using my PC as a local host.

http://flowingmotion.wordpress.com/2010/03/11/step-1-get-ushahidi-going-in-your-community-turn-your-pc-into-a-localhost/

ADS has a friend who can help me with this if it all goes pear-shaped. I seem to have committed myself to doing this over the first genuinely glorious spring weekend of the year. It seemed like a good idea at the time.

If all goes well, this will be up and running by Monday. Then we can start playing with it.

Obviously, this isn't a long-term solution, not least because all systems we'd need in an earthquake need multiple backups, but it will give us a demo and allow us to experiment with the platform.

We don't expect to be using Twitter as the primary source of input data: That will come from SMS messages. But until we've made arrangements with the cellphone companies, we'll be testing it with Twitter, and certainly Twitter will be an extremely important source of information, if Haiti and Chile are anything to go by.

We're then going to test it in three phases:

1) We're going to do a Twitter test run next week, or as soon as the platform is reasonably bug-free. ADS will publicize it on Twitter. I'm asking Ali Orcun Guner to get us as many student volunteers as he can from Bahcesehir University to geolocate and input the mock-Tweets. Obviously, the Tweets need a very clear code to indicate it's a test, not a real emergency.

2) If this goes well, we're going to show it to AKUT, which has expressed great interest in this idea. Then we'll schedule a second-phase test, again using Twitter, in which AKUT will use the system and send real rescuers to the sites. They'll let us know if the system seems valuable to them and what could be done to improve it.

3) We'll then have something concrete to take to cellphone companies and people who can help us to publicize the system. The goal is to make this system extremely well-known PRIOR to an earthquake, and to have a large cadre of volunteers trained in using it, so that it can go into action immediately and smoothly the moment it's needed.

To that end -- again -- it's essential that there be a well-publicized SMS shortcode that everyone in Turkey knows to use in an emergency. It does a lot less good to publicize this number afterwards than before. People also need to know how important it is, when using this number, to be very specific about where they are and what they need. This was one of the key lessons of Mission 4636 in Haiti. Far too many heartbreaking SMS messages didn't include the information rescuers needed to help the people who sent them.

The platform will be used to two ways:

First, to direct emergency local and international rescuers after a quake, in what we know will be a highly chaotic situation.

Second, it will be used to map hazards prior to the quake and give people practical information about how to prepare. The SMS shortcode will allow people to phone in issues of concern: (eg, "I'm worried about the school my kids are in, what should I do?") and will direct them, via an automated message system, to practical advice and resources. This will give us a better picture of which areas are really problematic -- one independent of government estimates.

Using this data, we can predict where emergency assistance will be needed (and obviously shorten the time required to get it there.)

It will also be a way to let people know about the practical steps they can take prior to an earthquake to increase their chances of surviving it. This information is right now not well-understood here at all.

A few more points came up:

BY is concerned that Jor El needs some kind of official status, as a destek or NGO. He's worried that the people whose support we most need will ask, "And who the hell are you?" Likewise, there are a lot of legal requirements we'll need to meet if we're to do fundraising.

AS mentioned that we could possibly simply attach ourselves to MAY, but BY pointed out that MAY's connections to the CHP might result in the appearance that Jor El is partisan. This is a real concern, and gave us all pause.

I'm extremely leery of the hassle and paperwork involved in becoming some kind of official destek or NGO -- I like to think, in my boundlessly optimistic American way, that the answer to the question "Who the hell are you" should be, "We're a bunch of people who met on Facebook, but look at these superb ideas we have and what we've done. Aren't you thrilled? Now work with us." But I do realize that sometimes things aren't that straightforward in Turkey.

We could use some good advice about this problem. We need to get Duygu Erten to join the conversation -- this is her field of expertise. Ayse Sumer, maybe you have suggestions as well.

Finally -- NB Hilary Chan -- Knut mentioned that Jen Friel, who runs the blog "Talk Nerdy to me, Lover," has devised as system for mirroring and backing up posts and comments to Facebook. If we could back up our Facebook site this way, it would obviate one of our big concerns -- that all of this will disappear in a Facebook glitch. HC, perhaps you could investigate?

IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR JOR EL

2010-03-28T19:48:00.002+03:00

All the action for now is here, on Facebook. Soon we'll have a new, searchable Jor El website and blog, thanks to Hilary Chan.

If you're looking for action, or more specifically, letters to Penthouse, I think you have to go to their website and pay for that. Contrary to rumors, I'm not really an expert about how to find those.

However, since I have your attention, let me ask you a question. Do you live in a seismically active area? Have you considered stocking up on food, water and any medication you might need after an earthquake? Have you bolted heavy furniture to your walls and moved anything that could fall on you away from your bed? Does your apartment or house conform to modern seismic safety codes? If not, you've got bigger worries than finding letters to Penthouse.

What works?

2010-03-24T10:49:00.006+02:00

A consistent theme -- both on the Jor El wall and in the e-mail people send me -- is that Istanbul's earthquake risk mitigation problem is impossible to solve because too many of the institutions that should be involved in solving it are corrupt or dysfunctional.

I completely agree that the problem is extremely difficult to solve. I also agree that many of Turkey's institutions don't work well. But I'm not sure that every relevant system is so dysfunctional that no scheme for risk mitigation could possibly succeed.

Turkey isn't a failed state. Many things here do work. If you're in Istanbul, look out your window: You don't see anyone shooting anyone, starving to death, or dying of epidemic disease. The grocery stores are full of food. Levels of street crime are low. You're looking at a vibrant city with a fairly advanced infrastructure. Problems, yes. A basket case, no.

I think it's reasonable to notice all the obstacles to putting our ideas into action -- of course it is -- but I wonder if we shouldn't spend a bit of time thinking about why Istanbul is doing so well, given all the institutional obstacles to getting anything done. Some systems and institutions here obviously do work. Which ones are they?

Wouldn't it make more sense to focus on working with systems that are already working, rather than against the ones that don't? We're not, after all, realistically going to be able to reform the constitution, the legal system, the Turkish press, or the bureaucracy.

What's already working well in Istanbul, and how can these groups and systems help us to solve this problem?

JOR EL ISTANBUL'S FIRST OFFICIAL EARTHQUAKE PREPARATION DAY

2010-03-20T04:56:00.004+02:00

Yesterday Cağri and I celebrated Istanbul's first Jor El Earthquake Preparation Day. We declared the holiday yesterday morning.

First, we did our own earthquake preparation. We went down to Kadiköy to buy high-powered flashlights, radios, a big stock of batteries, and other obvious things to have on hand. (Anyone who wants a list of things they should do if they live in a seismically active zone, feel free to contact me or check the tab in the Notes section of the Jor El Facebook page.) We arranged to have someone come over and secure my heavy furniture to the wall. I've still got to get a few more things, but those were the most important.

We both noted how much better we felt for having done the basic preparation. You can't control everything, but it takes a big weight off to know you've controlled what you reasonably can. Denial saps energy. Pushing the thought, "I'm not prepared" out of your head is actually a lot of work.

We then went to the Bereketzade muhtar to discuss the neighborhood's earthquake plans. For those who don't live here, the muhtarlık is the smallest level of local government--the neighborhood councilman, in effect. I was very curious to see how well this would work. All things considered, I thought it went very well.

Cağri was initially annoyed because he wasn't where he was supposed to be: His daughter was in the office, but didn't know where he was or what to do in his absence. But we found him pretty quickly; he was selling real estate down the street. Cağri was fit to be tied by this, asking me why a local elected official thought he should be unavailable to the public and pursuing another job on taxpayer time, but I didn't think it was all that problematic, really. We found him quickly, and he was very willing to talk to us and take what we were saying seriously. A note on his office door saying, "I'm two blocks down the street selling real estate, but here's my number, and my door down the street is always open to the public" would have been nice, but it certainly wasn't impossible for a determined local resident to find him.

At the suggestion of one of Jor El's members, we brought him a nice box of lokum. He seemed delighted to speak to us (if perhaps slightly saddened that we didn't want to buy real estate). We explained why we were there. He at first said that there was nothing the local government could do: We were lucky, on the one hand, because the ground in our neighborhood was good, but there was no local helicopter landing port, no emergency plan, no storehouse with emergency supplies. So we had best all just pray it never happens.

We explained that actually there was quite a bit we could do. I mentioned encouraging people, for example, to secure their heavy items to walls (and pointed to his unsecured cabinets), making sure they had information about the importance of moving heavy furniture away from their beds, reminding them to stock up on food and water, telling people what to do during and in the immediate aftermath of a quake. We gave him pamphlets and literature from MAY, and invited him to come to our meeting with MAY on the 25th. He seemed very enthusiastic, and agreed to come or to send someone on his behalf.

I thought this was highly encouraging. I really believe people want to know how to survive an earthquake, and are happy to learn that there are things they can do, personally, to protect themselves and their families.

Cağri was demoralized, however, because a woman in his office -- we have no idea who she was -- told us that we should stop worrying about it and trust in God, who would protect us from earthquakes if our faith was sufficient. She scolded us for trying to panic people and intimated that I must have an ulterior motive in this, seeing as I was American.

As I said to Cağri afterwards -- sure, people will say that. If many people here didn't think that way, there would be no problem to solve, right? But I thought the main thing, the important thing, was the muhtar's receptiveness to the message and his willingness to work with us.

I'm curious to know how other people's visits have gone.

I DON'T KNOW HOW TO GROW ANTHRAX, EITHER, BUDDY

2010-03-11T16:27:00.002+02:00

I know it's kind of a cliche to marvel at the weirdness of the search terms that have led people to your blog, but "My AK-47 keeps jamming" really does stand out.

He's in Florida, and I kind of doubt his neighbors want him to solve this problem.

Mücadeleyi Öğrenme

2010-03-10T20:45:00.001+02:00

5 Mart 2010, Cuma

1100 ÖĞRENCİSİ OLAN BİR OKUL

Geçen Çarşamba günü yüz yüze gerçekleşen ilk Jor El İstanbul toplantısının iyi bir başlangıç olduğunu düşünüyorum. Hepimiz İstanbul depreminin taşıdığı ciddi risk ve İstanbul deprem/felaket hazırlıklarının yetersizliği konusunda hemfikiriz.

MAY ve LIDAM projeleri genel koordinatörü ile 25 Mart günü 16:30-18:00 saatleri arasında Gayrettepe’de görüşeceğiz. Ayrıca bireysel olarak mahalle muhtarlarımızla da teke tek görüşüp kendi bölgelerimizin deprem hazırlıkları konusunda bilgi sahibi olmayı planlıyoruz. Muhtarlarımıza bu planlar ve geliştirilmeleri konusunda işbirliği yapmayı önereceğiz. Ayrıca bu çalışmaları bölgemizdeki diğer insanlara anlatmayı amaçlıyoruz.

Toplantıda oldukça sarsıcı noktalar dile getirildi. Grubun diğer üyelerinin de bu noktaların saptanmasına katkıda bulunacaklarını umuyorum. Bu önemli noktaların İngilizce değil, Türkçe paylaşılması gerekir. Ancak benim Türkçem bunun için yetersiz.

Öne çıkan konular arasında en çarpıcı olanı şuydu: Bir grup üyesinin ifadesine göre Kâğıthane’deki bir okulun güçlendirme çalışmalarının yapılmış olmasına rağmen bina hiç de güvenli değil. Güçlendirme çalışması için 350.000 TL harcanmış ama binanın temeli sadece 16 cm derinliğinde. Bu üyemiz, güçlendirme işinin kontrolünü üstlenen mühendisin de “Ben çocuğumu bu okula göndermem” dediğini sözlerine ekledi. Ayrıca bu durumun güçlendirildiği söylenen pek çok okul için de geçerli olduğuna inandığını belirtti.

Fazla ayrıntıya girmek istemediği için bu üyemizin söylediklerini hemen kanıtlayamam. Ancak doğruluk ihtimalinin bulunması bile ciddi biçimde konunun üzerine gidilmesi için bence yeterli bir nedendir. Okuldaki 1100 öğrencinin aileleri çocuklarının okulda güvende olduğuna inanıyorlar. Eğer okul güvenli değilse, ailelerin bunu bilmeye hakkı var ve çocuklar orada bulunmamalı.

Büyük bir depremde yeterince güçlendirilmemiş okullarda neler olduğuna bakalım:

Haiti depreminde yerle bir olan okullar, pek çok kişi için daha iyi bir geleceğin umutlarını da söndürdü.

Çin depremi: Neden o kadar çok okul yıkıldı?

Okula ulaştıklarında, dehşetle, tüm binanın yerle bir olduğunu gördüler.

Pasternak, üç katlı bir bina olan okulun, üzerinde yürünebilecek bir moloz yığını haline geldiğini söyledi.

Deprem anında, bina içinde, aralarında yetim ve engellilerin de bulunduğu yüzlerce çocuk olduğunu söyledi.

Gece boyunca ellerinde hiçbir alet ya da makine olmaksızın çocukları enkazdan çıkarmaya çalıştılar. Sabah olduğunda, 25 yaralı ve 30 cansız beden çıkarabilmişlerdi.

Bina unufak olduğundan içeride kaç çocuğun olduğunu hiç kimse kesin olarak bilmiyordu, ancak Pasternak 50-100 çocuğun depremden hemen sonra kaçıp uzaklaştığını, bunun da enkaz altında halen 50-200 çocuk bulunduğu anlamına geldiğini belirtti.

Pasternak, daha önce Haiti’de gönüllü olarak çalışan 65 yaşındaki San Rafaelli

emekli öğretmen Wander’in de bitmez tükenmez bir gayretle çalıştığını söyledi.

Wander inatla, azimle çalışıyordu. Florance Nightingale kimliğine bürünmüş, ölmek üzere olan çocuklara yetişip kurtarmaya gayret ediyordu.

Wander aynı zamanda ölen çocukların resimlerini çekip kimlik tespitini kolaylaştırmayı düşünebilecek kadar da aklı başında davranmıştı.

Bu yetersiz okul güçlendirmesinin doğru olabileceği ve eğer öyleyse, bu konuda bir şeyler yapmanın hepimizin sosyal/etik bir sorumluluğu olduğu konusunda kuşkusu olan var mı?

Bu konuda daha fazla bilgi edinmeme yardımcı olabilecek kimse varmı?

ONE MORE IDEA FOR SOLVING THE PROBLEM OF CONSTRUCTION CRIME IN TURKEY

2010-03-07T06:58:00.003+02:00

This is something I thought of a while ago; perhaps it's worth revisiting. As Anne Applebaum points out,

Before the quake, Chile also had regulations in place that required contractors to construct all new buildings to earthquake-resistant standards. Not every structure met the standards, but many did. And residents of those that did not will have some recourse: In the city of Concepción, residents of a new building that collapsed completely are threatening to take their builders to court, according to one report. The fact that they are even discussing this option implies that these apartment owners believe they have a court system that works, a legal system that could force builders to pay compensation, and a building regulatory system that is generally respected. Haiti has none of the above.

Turkey has some of the above, but not nearly enough. The average Turkish citizen wants nothing to do with the court system, believing it intimidating, incomprehensible, rigged, and vastly too expensive and time-consuming to use -- which it is. I speak from personal experience of taking a construction company to court.

The biggest problem is that it simply costs too much to sue someone. The cost of opening a lawsuit represents a substantial portion of an average Turk's annual income.

This article suggests a free-market solution to that problem. I wonder if it might be possible to start a profit-making company that invests in lawsuits?

Basically, since the idea of a lawsuit taken on a contingency basis doesn't exist here, it would be a way of filling that gap.

The idea has an obvious huge advantage over starting a legal aid society: There would be no need to appeal to anyone's good will. Profit would be the incentive, and you can always count on that as a strong incentive.

Any Turkish legal experts have any thoughts about the feasibility of this?

MINUTES FROM WEDNESDAY'S MEETING

2010-03-05T13:20:00.003+02:00

With thanks to Asli Suner.

Asli Suner Katılımcılar / Attendees:

Claire Berlinski - CB
Cagrı Sert - CS
Aslı Suner - AS
Ahmet Turhan Altıner - ATA
Bayram Yıldızoğlu - BY
Ender Ülker - EU
Aziz Nazmi Şakir - ANS
İbrahim Yıldırım - IY
Barbaros Bey - B

Konular / Issues Discussed:

1. Deprem felaketine hazırlık stratejilerinde farklı düzeylerde yaklaşımların gerekliliği tartışıldı. ATA Mahalle ölçeğinden başlamanın en doğru yöntem olduğunu ifade etti.
Görev: Katılımcıların herbirinin kendi mahalle muhtarları ile iletişime geçip, o mahalenin acil durum anındaki aksiyon ve kaöış planlarını öğrenmeleri. Muhatraların bu projeye dahil edilebilmeleri için bilgilendirilmeleri. Bir sonraki toplantıda bu bilgilerin tartışılması

(Levels of preparedness approaches are discussed. ATA suggested the best way be to start at "Neighborhood Level" involving 'Muhtar's.
Task: Per ATA's suggestion each attendee should talk to their muhtar and collect information for emergency plans for each neighborhood as a starting point to be then discussed at the next meeting.)

2. Hali hazırda varolan ve benzer konularda çalışan gruplar, dernekler ya da STKlar ile kontağa geçilmesine dair fikirler tartışıldı.
Görev: AS Architecture for Humanity'nin Istanbul grubu ile kontağa geçecek. Onların yaklaşık bir senedir süre gelen çalısmalarını öğrenip, ortak çalışma imkanlarını araştıracak.
ATA MAG ( Mahalle Afet Gönüllüleri -http://www.mag.org.tr/tur/mag.as ) ile bağlantı kurdu. 25.03.2010 tarihinde, saat 16:30 da Gayrettepe Muhtarlığında bir tanışma toplantısı organize etti. Konu ile ilgili davet ilgilenenlere facebook üzerinden gönderilecek.

(Ideas and possibilities for joining existing groups / NGOs in the field of preparedness and awareness for disasters are discussed:
Task: AS to connect with Istanbul chapter of Architecture for Humanity to see for possibilities of a collaboration. or joining the group as a subgroup focused on earthquake preparedness/awarness
ATA to connect the group with MAG (http://www.mag.org.tr/eng/mag.html ). A meeting is already set up by ATA to take place on 25.03.2010 at Gayrettepe Muhtarlık to learn from their efforts so far )

3. B deprem afetine yönelik biliçlendirmeyi arttırmak ve acil durum anlarında yapılması gerekenler konusunda bilgilendirmek üzere basit garfiklerle sunulan bir broşür hazırlanmasını tavsiye etti. Dağıtım için gazeteleri devreye sokup, broşürleri geniş bir kitleye dağıtabileceğimizi önerdi.
AS tasarım grupları ve de okullarının bu gibi konularda dahil edilebileceğinden bahsetti. Öğrenciler çeşitli projeler vasıtasıyla bu çalışmalara gönüllü ya da okul ile katılabilirler. AS AFH-Istanbul grubu ile bu konuda da konuşacak. Onların okullar ile olan bağlantılarından yararlanmanın yollarını araştıracak.
B media grupları ile bağlantıyı üstlenecek.

(B suggested to prepare a simple brochure raising awareness and showing ways for preparedness in a simple graphic form and use media's help to distribute it in masses.
AS suggested to involve designers or design schools and potentially use students as part of such project. AFH- Istanbul can be a bridge as they are already in touch with some schools.
B to help with media connection.)

4. BY birkaç senedir süregelen DDS ( Deprem Duvar Sistemi ) konusunda grubu bilgilendirdi.

(BY explained the DDS product as a retrofitting solution at a bigger scale)

5. İnşaat sektöründeki sorumsuz yapım teknikleri ve yetersiz statik çözümleri üzerine tartışıldı. Kağıthane'de bir okul projesinde şahit olduğu yetersiz temel sorunundan bahsetti.
CB bu konuda gazeteci olarak raporlamak isteğini dile getirdi. Daha fazla bilgi ve kanıt çerçevesinde IY da bu tarz opersyonların önlenmesi konusunda yardımcı olabileceğini ifade etti.

(Irresponsible operations in construction industry are discussed. An example was given of a school in Kağıthane with inadequate foundation.
CB wants to report on it. With further evidence IY can also build some pressure.)

6. Jor El Istanbul grubunun yaptıgı çalışmaların organize olması ile oluşturulabılecek bir prezantasyonun ilçe başkanlıkları ve üst kurumlarında sunulabileceği konusunda yardımcı olabileceğini ifade etti. Bu sayede belediyeler ya da valililk düzeyinde konunun yayılması ve çalışılmasına önayak olunabilir.

(IY suggested that Jor El Istanbul efforts can be put in a presentation and he can arrange some meetings at the governing levels to present ideas and action strategies in pursuit of their involvement.)

7. ATA Istanbul'daki okulların büyük çoğunluğunda kaçış kapılarının içeriye doğru açıldığına dikkat çekti. Bu acil durumlarda büyük problemlere yol açan bir problem. Ucuz maliyetle ve hızlı bir islem ile kapı yönleri değiştirilebilir. Bu konuda devlet tarafından bir yaptırım gerekir.

(ATA mentioned that most schools have their escape doors swinging in, which causes a major problem during emergencies. It's a low-cost, easy-to-implent strategy to switch swings to open out, which needs to be mandated by governing agencies. )

8. Acil durum tatbikatlarının eksikliği tartışıldı.

(Issue about lack of drills raised.)

9. Kriz öncesi kartografi çalışmalarının gerekliliği ve yöntemleri tartışıldı. Bu konuda varolan sistemlerin ( Ushahidi -http://www.ushahidi.com/ ve Frontline SMS -http://www.frontlinesms.com/ ) araştırılmasına karar verildi. Bu konuda tecrübesi olan ya da bilgisayar programacısı arkadaşların konuya dahil olmalarını bekliyoruz.

(Advanced Crisis Mapping ideas are discussed. Further study of existing systems and ways of adaptations to be investigated. Computer programmers from the group are encouraged to get involved with this.)

A SCHOOL WITH 1,100 KIDS IN IT

2010-03-05T12:41:00.002+02:00

I thought the first in-person meeting of Jor El Istanbul, last Wednesday, was a good start. We are certainly all of like mind about the seriousness of the risk and the inadequacy of Istanbul's disaster planning.

We'll be meeting the general coordinator of the MAY and LIDAH projects on March 25 from 16:30-18:00 in Gayrettepe. We plan also, individually, to meet our local muhtars to learn more about our own neighborhoods' disaster preparation. We'll offer to cooperate with them to improve these plans and communicate the plans to other people in our neighborhoods.

Several very disturbing points came up. I'm hoping other members of the group will contribute to listing them: These are points that should be made public in Turkish, not English. My Turkish really isn't good enough.

By far the most disturbing point was this. A member of the group is certain that a school in Kağıthane that is said to have been retrofitted has not in fact been made secure. He said that 350,000 YTL was spent to retrofit the school, but the foundation is still only 16 cm. deep. He also said that the engineer who supervised the work told him, "I wouldn't send my children here." He believed this to be true of many schools that have supposedly been retrofitted.

He wasn't willing to discuss the details of this. I can't confirm, immediately, that the story is true. But the possibility that it's true is enough to make me think this should be investigated aggressively. The parents of those 1,100 children believe their kids are safe in that school. If they're not, those parents are entitled to know -- and those children shouldn't be in there.

This is what happens in a major earthquake to schools that are not properly secured:

Destruction of schools in Haiti quake crushes hopes of a better future for many

China's quake: Why did so many schools collapse?

Here's a graphic description:

As the school came into view, they were horrified to see that it had collapsed.

"What had been a three-story building was a ramp, you could walk up it," Pasternak said.

He said there were likely several hundred children inside at the time of the collapse, including numerous orphans and disabled children.

They worked overnight to pull children from the rubble, without the help of tools or machinery. By morning, they had pulled out about 25 wounded children and the bodies of nearly 30 children who had died.

No one has an exact count of how many children were inside the building when it crumbled, but Pasternak said about 50-100 were seen fleeing the school after the quake, meaning that between 50 and 200 children were still underneath the rubble.

Pasternak said Wander, a 65-year-old former San Rafael schoolteacher who has volunteered periodically in Haiti for about the past decade, worked tirelessly.

"She was on absolute overdrive of wanting to help," he said. "She was Florence Nightingale. She was out there trying to rescue some of the kids who were obviously dying."

Wander also had the presence of mind to photograph the deceased children to identify them later, he said.

Does anyone doubt that if the story of the inadequate retrofitting of this school is true, we all have a moral responsibility to do something about it? Now?

Is there anyone who will help me find out more about this?

JOR EL ISTANBUL

2010-02-26T10:05:00.001+02:00

I've created a Facebook group for people who are concerned about the seismic hazard to Istanbul. Please feel free to join it.

In Quake-Prone Cities, Quick Growth Invites Disaster

2010-02-25T11:30:00.002+02:00

I'm encouraged to see so much attention to this in the media. That's a start.

February 25, 2010

In Quake-Prone Cities, Quick Growth Invites Disaster

By ANDREW C. REVKIN

ISTANBUL — As he surveys the streets of this sprawling mega-city, Mustafa Erdik, the director of an earthquake engineering institute here, says he sometimes feels like a doctor scanning a crowded hospital ward.

It is not so much the city’s modern core, where two sleek Trump Towers and a huge airport terminal were built to withstand a major earthquake that is considered all but inevitable in the next few decades. Nor does Dr. Erdik agonize over Istanbul’s ancient monuments, whose yards-thick walls have largely withstood more than a dozen potent seismic blows over the past two millenniums.

His biggest worry is that tens of thousands of buildings throughout the city, erected in a haphazard, uninspected rush as the population soared past 10 million from the 1 million it was just 50 years ago, are what some seismologists call “rubble in waiting.”

“Earthquakes always find the weakest point,” said Dr. Erdik, a professor at Bogazici University here.

Istanbul is one of a host of quake-threatened cities in the developing world where populations have swelled far faster than the capacity to house them safely, setting them up for disaster of a scope that could, in some cases, surpass the devastation in Haiti from last month’s earthquake.

Roger Bilham, a seismologist at the University of Colorado who has spent decades studying major earthquakes around the world, including the recent quake in Haiti, said that the planet’s growing, urbanizing population, projected to swell by two billion more people by midcentury and to require one billion dwellings, faced “an unrecognized weapon of mass destruction: houses.”

Without vastly expanded efforts to change construction practices and educate people, from mayors to masons, on simple ways to bolster structures, he said, Haiti’s tragedy is almost certain to be surpassed sometime this century when a major quake hits Karachi, Pakistan, Katmandu, Nepal, Lima, Peru, or one of a long list of big poor cities facing inevitable major earthquakes.

In Tehran, Iran’s capital, Dr. Bilham has calculated that one million people could die in a predicted quake similar in intensity to the one in Haiti, which the Haitian government estimates killed 230,000. (Some Iranian geologists have pressed their government for decades to move the capital because of the nest of surrounding geologic faults.)

As for Istanbul, a study led by Dr. Erdik mapped out a situation in which a quake could kill 30,000 to 40,000 people and seriously injure 120,000 at the very minimum.

The city is rife with buildings with glaring flaws, like ground floors with walls or columns removed to make way for store displays, or a succession of illegal new floors added in each election period on the presumption that local officials will look the other way. On many blocks, upper floors jut precariously over the sidewalk, taking advantage of an old permitting process that governed only a building’s footprint.

Worse, Dr. Erdik said, as with a doctor’s patients, not all of the potentially deadly problems are visible from the outside, and thousands more buildings are presumed to be at risk. “Little details are very important,” he said. “To say that a building is in bad condition is easy. To say that one is safe is hard.”

Some of Turkey’s biggest builders have readily admitted to using shoddy materials and bad practices in the urban construction boom. In an interview last year with the Turkish publication Referans, Ali Agaoglu, a Turkish developer ranked 468th last year on the Forbes list of billionaires, described how in the 1970s, salty sea sand and scrap iron were routinely used in buildings made of reinforced concrete.

“At that time, this was the best material,” he said, according to a translation of the interview. “Not just us, but all companies were doing the same thing. If an earthquake occurs in Istanbul, not even the army will be able to get in.”

Echoing other engineers and planners trying to reduce Istanbul’s vulnerability, Dr. Erdik said that the best hope, considering the scale of the problem, might well be that economic advancement would happen fast enough that property owners could replace the worst housing stock before the ground heaved.

“If the quake gives us some time, we can reduce the losses just through turnover,” Dr. Erdik said. “If it happens tomorrow, there’ll be a huge number of deaths.”

But when a potent quake hit 50 miles away in 1999, killing more than 18,000 people, including 1,000 on the outskirts of Istanbul, the city was reminded that time might not be on its side. That earthquake occurred on the North Anatolian fault, which runs beneath the Marmara Sea, just a few miles from the city’s crowded southern flanks.

The fault, which is very similar to the San Andreas fault in California, appears to have a pattern of successive failures, meaning the section near Istanbul is probably primed to fail, said Tom Parsons, who has studied the fault for the United States Geological Survey.

Istanbul stands out among threatened cities in developing countries because it is trying to get ahead of the risk.

A first step was an earthquake master plan drawn up for the city and the federal government by Dr. Erdik’s team and researchers at three other Turkish universities in 2006. Such a plan is a rarity outside of rich cities like Tokyo and Los Angeles.

Carrying out its long list of recommendations has proved more challenging, given that the biggest source of political pressure in Istanbul, as with most crowded cities, is not an impending earthquake but traffic, crime, jobs and other real-time troubles.

Nonetheless, with the urgency amplified by the lessons from Haiti’s devastation, Istanbul is doing what it can to gird for its own disaster.

The effort to prepare is coming from the top, with tighter building codes, mandatory earthquake insurance and loans from international development banks for buttressing or replacing vulnerable schools and other public buildings.

But a push is also coming from the bottom, as nonprofit groups, recognizing the limits of centralized planning, train dozens of teams of volunteers in poor districts and outfit them with radios, crowbars and first-aid kits so they can dig into the wreckage when their neighborhoods are shaken.

Mahmut Bas, who leads the city’s Directorate of Earthquake and Ground Analysis, is charged with consolidating and coordinating everything from building inspections to emergency response. Yet the bureaucracy is almost as sprawling and inefficient as the dizzying web of smog-shrouded streets, clogged with an estimated six million vehicles.

Mr. Bas said collapsing buildings were just one of many threats. One prediction about a potent quake concluded that 30,000 natural gas lines were likely to rupture. “If just 10 percent catch fire, that’s 3,000 fires,” he said, adding that the city’s fire stations are able to handle at most 30 to 40 fires in one day.

Still, keeping vital structures standing — those fire stations, hospitals and schools — remains the prime priority.

Under a program financed with more than $800 million in loans from the World Bank and the European Investment Bank, and more in the pipeline from other international sources, Turkey is in the early stages of bolstering hundreds of the most vulnerable schools in Istanbul, along with important public buildings and more than 50 hospitals.

With about half of the nearly 700 schools assessed as high priorities retrofitted or replaced so far, progress is too slow to suit many Turkish engineers and geologists tracking the threat. But in districts where the work has been done or is under way — those closest to the Marmara Sea and the fault — students, parents and teachers express a sense of relief tempered by the knowledge that renovations only cut the odds of calamity.

“I hope it’s enough,” said Serkan Erdogan, an English teacher at the Bakirkoy Cumhuriyet primary school close to the Marmara coast, where $315,000 was spent to add reinforced walls, jackets of fresh concrete and steel rebar around old columns and to make adjustments as simple as changing classroom doors to open outward, easing evacuations.

“The improvements are great, but the building may still collapse,” he said. “We have to learn how to live with that risk. The children need to know what they should do.”

In a fifth-grade classroom, the student training that goes with the structural repairs was evident as Nazan Sati, a social worker, asked the 11-year-olds what they would do if an earthquake struck right at that moment.

At first a forest of hands shot toward the ceiling. Ms. Sati quickly told them to show, not tell. In a mad, giggling scramble, the students dove beneath their desks.

But the threat for children, and their parents, also lies outside the school walls, in mile upon mile of neighborhoods filled with structures called gecekondu, meaning “landed overnight,” because they were constructed seemingly instantly as hundreds of thousands of migrants from rural regions flowed into the city seeking work in the past decade or two.

That kind of construction is commonplace in many of the world’s most unstable seismic zones. Dr. Bilham at the University of Colorado has estimated that an engineer is involved in just 3 percent of the construction under way around the world.

Peter Yanev, who has advised the World Bank and the insurance industry on earthquake engineering and is the author of “Peace of Mind in Earthquake Country,” noted that in Turkey and other developing countries, even when someone with an engineering degree was involved, that was no guarantee of safe construction because there was little specialized training or licensing.

In the face of such problems, efforts are under way in Istanbul’s crowded working-class and poor neighborhoods to train and equip several thousand volunteers to be ready to respond when, not if, the worst happens.

On a sunny Saturday morning, Mustafa Elvan Cantekin, who directs the Neighborhood Disaster Support Project, navigated back streets to meet with one team deep in the city’s Bagcilar district, where one estimate projects that some 4,200 people would be likely to die in a major earthquake.

Dr. Cantekin, a Turkish engineer educated at Texas A&M University and tested in the 1999 earthquake zone, has helped create 49 neighborhood teams in the city, each with a shipping container loaded with crowbars, generators, stretchers and other emergency gear.

Through the project, paid for by a Swiss development agency and private companies, he has traveled to Morocco, Jordan and Iran to help initiate programs there based on Istanbul’s.

A map on his lap showed that the neighborhood was on the border of red and orange danger zones delineating the worst seismic risks. He pointed to one building after another where there was no permanent roof but instead columns poking skyward in anticipation of a landlord finding a new tenant and adding yet another unlicensed floor — and another layer of risk.

As his car crawled through mazes of traffic-choked streets, Mr. Cantekin said the harsh reality for the dozens of small communities within a mega-city, as with the residents of shattered towns in Sichuan Province in China after the 2008 earthquake there, was that they would have to be self-reliant when the quake hit.

“China has the biggest civil defense capability in the world, but it still took three or four days to reach the collapsed towns,” he said. “If there is the big one here, you are all alone to cope with whatever you have, at least for the first 72 hours.”

Outside a community center where children sat at computers playing Farmville on Facebook, Mr. Cantekin inspected the container contents with the team leader, Cuma Cetin, 36, a father of five and a factory worker.

“We’re not waiting for the disaster,” Mr. Cetin said as he and his team, dressed in orange coveralls, accompanied Mr. Cantekin while he pointed out fatal flaws in nearby buildings.

Along an avenue that was a stream bed four decades ago, in a spot where houses were built on sediment instead of bedrock and thus particularly vulnerable, Mr. Cantekin led the team into a ground-floor area beneath four stories of apartments with laundry flapping in the breeze on balcony after balcony.

The columns holding up this part of the building are too thin, he said, pointing to cracks that have already scarred the concrete surface.

“This is one of the first to go,” Mr. Cantekin said, before they walked on to the next one.

"In recent earthquakes, buildings have acted as weapons of mass destruction,"

2010-02-23T12:25:00.002+02:00

Under the world's greatest cities, deadly plates

By Joel Achenbach
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Megacities are something new on the planet. Earthquakes are something very old. The two are a lethal combination, as seen in the recent tragedy in Port-au-Prince, where more than 200,000 people perished -- a catastrophe that scientists say is certain to be repeated somewhere, and probably soon, with death tolls that once again stagger the mind.
***
n many vulnerable cities, people are effectively stacked on top of one another in buildings designed as if earthquakes don't happen. It is not the tremor that kills people in an earthquake but the buildings, routinely constructed on the cheap, using faulty designs and, in some cities, overseen by corrupt inspectors. The difference between life and death is often a matter of how much sand went into the cement or how much steel into a supporting column. Earthquakes might be viewed as acts of God, but their lethality is often a function of masonry.
"In recent earthquakes, buildings have acted as weapons of mass destruction," Bilham writes in the journal Nature.
***
Brian Tucker, an earth scientist who leads GeoHazards International, said 10 percent of the money going to help Haiti rebuild should be dedicated to mitigating the destruction in earthquakes. But he also knows from many years of sounding warnings about possible earthquakes that people tend to be complacent about catastrophes that have yet to happen.
"People who advocate diet and exercise are chumps, and heart surgeons are heroes," Tucker said.
Bilham said he would like to see the United Nations develop a building-inspection program akin to its efforts to look for banned nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. Zoback, likewise, is impatient for action that could save lives:
"We know where the problems are. We know what to do. We know how to fix it. We just need the political will."

New construction after quake in Turkey on shaky ground

2010-02-23T10:16:00.002+02:00

Monday, February 22, 2010

ISTANBUL – Daily news with wires

Many buildings in Turkey risk being destroyed in an earthquake because the law passed after the 1999 quake covers only 19 provinces. In 62 provinces, many of which are in first-degree quake zones, 10 to 30 percent of buildings are below standard and are structurally vulnerable. Experts are calling for a new countrywide system of standards and controls on construction

The general advice for people seeking a house in Turkey to find one built after the 1999 Marmara earthquake may sound solid, but the wisdom doesn’t hold true in 62 provinces.

It is common for people to prefer a house built after the earthquake because of the popular belief that legislation passed shortly after the quake strengthened construction control mechanisms and the quality of buildings. But a recently revealed report by the Public Works Ministry nulls that idea.

Buildings in 62 provinces are under threat of being destroyed in an earthquake because they fall short of structural standards implemented in Turkey’s other 19 provinces after the 1999 Marmara quake, according to the “Residence Control Report.”

The daily Radikal disclosed the report and wrote that it had been hidden like a secret. According to the report, between 10 and 30 percent of houses in the 62 provinces are under risk while the situation in the 19 provinces is positive because the construction controls were properly applied.

"This report clearly indicates that the law on controlling construction cannot sufficiently provide a reliable control mechanism. The ministry has been too slow to offer proper regulations. The control process has completely broken down,” Eyüp Muhçu, head of the Istanbul Chamber of Architects, told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review.

In Turkey’s 81 provinces, the ministry inspected more than 3,200 buildings to test their bearing capacity and other relevant issues. At least 40 buildings in each province were checked. There has been a significant rise in the quality of buildings in the 19 provinces where the controls are in place, the report concluded. The ministry also determined that in the 19 provinces a test that measures the elasticity capacity of steel material was performed in around 97 percent of the buildings.

But when it comes to the provinces outside the jurisdiction of the law, the ministry’s report reveals a tragic picture. Although in a quake zone, many buildings in eastern Anatolian cities are arguably waiting to be destroyed in an earthquake. The percentage of buildings with improperly built load-bearing systems is between 10 and 30 percent.

Moreover, the percentage of buildings that underwent proper testing to measure structural strength was low in those cities. The provinces outside of the law but in first-degree quake zones are the Anatolian provinces of Şırnak, Hakkâri, Siirt, Muş, Bingöl, Adıyaman, Kahramanmaraş, Tunceli, Erzincan, Tokat, Amasya, Çankırı, Karabük, Bilecik, Muğla, Afyon, Uşak, Burdur, Isparta. Meanwhile, the 19 pilot provinces are Adana, Ankara, Antalya, Aydın, Balıkesir, Bolu, Bursa, Çanakkale, Denizli, Düzce, Eskişehir, Gaziantep, Hatay, İstanbul, İzmir, Kocaeli, Sakarya, Tekirdağ and Yalova.

The report was presented to Public Works Minister Mustafa Demir a couple of months ago, but nothing was done to bring all the provinces under an efficient control mechanism, daily Radikal reported.

“We urgently need a new system to restore control over construction. The current mechanism is not working properly. It is still unclear whether institutions that are supposed to implement control mechanisms are using objective criteria,” said Tayfun Kahraman, head of the Istanbul Chamber of City Planners.

Istanbul Chamber of Architect’s head Muhcu also said Turkey needs a new countrywide control process based on scientific principles and more participation if the country is to have a reliable control system for construction. “It should be a countrywide control process rather than a system based on pilot-region practices,” he said.

“Everything should be changed and we need a new law to make these drastic changes,” said Kahraman, adding that the builders should consult experts like city planners, engineers and architects.

Muhcu said the control mechanism under the current law does not work as it should. “Even buildings constructed by state-run institutions and TOKİ [the Housing Development Administration] are not within the scope of this law,” he said.

“Universities, municipalities and all actors along the control process should contribute to a new system that can be implemented in all provinces across the country,” he said.

COVERING ALL THE BASES

2010-02-17T14:28:00.004+02:00

I have just received this insanely pointless warning from the Warden of the US Consulate General in Istanbul:

Consulate General Istanbul Warden Message #1

WORLDWIDE CAUTION

The Department of State has issued this Worldwide Caution to update information on the continuing threat of terrorist actions and violence against U.S. citizens and interests throughout the world. U.S. citizens are reminded to maintain a high level of vigilance and to take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness. This replaces the Worldwide Caution dated July 29, 2009 to provide updated information on security threats and terrorist activities worldwide.

The Department of State remains concerned about the continued threat of terrorist attacks, demonstrations, and other violent actions against U.S. citizens and interests overseas. Americans are reminded that demonstrations and rioting can occur with little or no warning. Current information suggests that al-Qaida and affiliated organizations continue to plan terrorist attacks against U.S. interests in multiple regions, including Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. These attacks may employ a wide variety of tactics including suicide operations, assassinations, kidnappings, hijackings, and bombings.

It goes on to detail pretty much every recent act of violence committed in the world, then notes:

Potential targets are not limited to those companies or establishments with overt U.S. ties. For instance, terrorists may target movie theaters, liquor stores,bars, casinos, or any similar type of establishment, regardless of whether they are owned and operated by host country nationals. Due to varying degrees of security at all such locations, Americans should be particularly vigilant when visiting these establishments. ... Anti-American violence could include possible terrorist actions against aviation, ground transportation, and maritime interests, specifically in the Middle East, including the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, the Arabian Peninsula, and North Africa. ... . Extremists may be surveilling Westerners, particularly at hotels, housing areas, and rental car facilities ...

It provides not one bit of information about a specific, credible threat, nor any reasonable advice beyond "be vigilant."

I'm really losing my patience with the State Department. Time to outsource them to Twitter.

"WELL-INTENTIONED BUT USELESS"

2010-02-16T15:19:00.002+02:00

Turkish gov't calls for 'buffer zones' to protect cities from earthquakes

Monday, February 15, 2010

ISTANBUL - Daily News with wires

Turkey’s ruling government is calling for new regulations on development near fault lines that would restrict construction to a certain distance depending on the depth of the fault and require that current structures are relocated or vacated in time. Experts say the government’s plan is ambitious and well intentioned but useless in the long runNew regulations to reduce the number of deaths in the much-debated “impending big earthquake” in Turkey include strict development rules near fault lines, but experts say the buffer zones would not be useful, especially for Istanbul.

Experts said such precautions should only be applied to certain fault lines and not to Istanbul because the fault line through the city snakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, not under the city itself. But many other Turkish cities also suffer from seismic threats because of developed areas that are built over fault lines and the buffer zones may be helpful in deterring construction too close to the faults.

The Turkish public has been discussing precautions against a possible earthquake since the Aug. 17, 1999, Gölcük earthquake in the Marmara region that killed nearly 20,000 people and razed entire urban areas to the ground.To mitigate an earthquake’s possible effects, the government’s proposal envisions the construction of buffer zones on active fault lines and the banning of any construction or settlements in these areas, according to the daily Milliyet.

The draft, prepared by the Earthquake Department under the Prime Ministry Disaster and Emergency Department, said the buffer zones would extend to “75, 150 or 250 meters on each side of the fault lines.” For fault lines that are larger than others, however, the draft calls for proportionally larger buffer zones.

Buildings that are already located in the proposed buffer zones will be reinforced and permitted to remain in use until their economic life is complete. An international report released in 2007 predicted an earthquake of 7.5 on the Richter scale in Istanbul within three decades.

İdris Güllüce, head of the Parliamentary Earthquake Commission as well as a deputy for the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, said he was “terrified” and “unable to sleep” after reading the report prepared by Japanese experts, according to a Feb. 6 Anatolia news agency story.

Seismologists contacted by the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review, however, said such buffer zones would have few benefits if implemented in Istanbul. “The fault line lies under the Sea of Marmara and the closest fault line to Istanbul is eight kilometers away,” said Professor Celal Şengör of the Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences at Istanbul Technical University.

Şengör also said he does not take the Prime Ministry report seriously because they do not follow up-to-date reports about earthquakes.“They read the facts about a possible Istanbul earthquake from second-hand sources, but we have conducted research ourselves and have been discussing these problems for many years now,” said Şengör in reference to Güllüce’s speech.

He said the buffer zone approach could provide a precaution for the rest of Turkey, but was not a truly effective solution.

Professor Aral I. Okay, also of the Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, told the Daily News that experts usually predict that earthquakes will occur on an active fault line or a fault line that was damaged during a previous quake. Because of this, mapping these lines and preparing buffer zones could be beneficial just in knowing where they are but in the long run they would be useless for Istanbul, he said.

An area is damaged during earthquakes depending on its distance from a fault line, yet other factors also affect the scope of the damage, said Okay, adding that the structure of the surface as well as quality and resistance of the buildings are also significant factors.

Murat Nurlu, head of the Earthquake Department, informed the parliamentary commission of the draft regulation and said a change of regulations would be implemented as had already been done in the United States and New Zealand.

“The regulations of the European Union and the U.S. should be a basis for Turkey’s regulatory changes,” said an expert from an Ankara-based association, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The Mining Exploration Institute, or MTA, will prepare a 1/25,000 scale map including current data about fault lines with plans to renew the map in four years, according to the draft regulation prepared by experts Ramazan Demirtaş and Murat Yavaş. The regulation says the buffer zones will be identified after the geographical location and characteristics of the active fault lines are determined.

"THE FEELING OF SECURITY IS DECREASING"

2010-02-16T09:14:00.004+02:00

An unusually astute article about the social and emotional ramifications of living in a society where there is low trust in the government's ability to ensure public safety.

Interest in psychiatry not a class issue

ŞAFAK TİMUR
ISTANBUL – Hürriyet Daily News
Monday, February 15, 2010

Crimes committed within families are increasing in Turkey, says Professor Yankı Yazgan, a prominent psychiatrist, adding that the feeling of trust in authorities is decreasing. This leads to feelings of "ambiguity" and having to "take care of one’s self," which is at the core of depression, he says.

Breaking the myth that only the wealthy and upper-middle class segments of society have the luxury to visit psychiatrists, a prominent psychiatrist says the interest in psychiatry is growing among all social levels in Turkey.Professor Yankı Yazgan has worked as a psychiatrist for around 20 years, becoming famous among younger generations through the puzzles he wrote for the daily Cumhuriyet.

Yazgan was also featured on news bulletins speaking about trauma in the wake of disasters, particularly after the major 1999 earthquake that hit the Marmara region. Yazgan mainly works with children and adolescents.There is huge interest from people at the psychiatry clinics of public hospitals that have resulted in waiting lists, Yazgan said.Parents are now more aware of their children’s problems, their success in schools and mental health, he said, adding that he has colleagues in Anatolian cities and that many people have shown great interest in psychiatry clinics in hospitals there as well.

“People know they should visit psychiatrists [for relevant problems], but they do not know through which channels they can do that,” Yazgan said. For instance, it can be difficult to get an appointment from a public hospital while hundreds of people wait in line everyday while many public authorities do not fulfill their responsibilities in this area or, if they do, the needs are not seen as very large, he said.Trust in authorities decreasing.

According to Yazgan’s observations of Turkish society, people increasingly feel they need to take care of themselves. “The feeling of security is decreasing,” he said. For instance, if people rescue their own friends from a flood, while authorities cannot, the feeling of having to take care of one’s self increases, he said in reference to the latest flood disaster in the southern province of Antalya.There, a man who was stuck on a tree after a flood hit the province could not be rescued by emergency services and died after many hours while his friend, who was holding onto the same tree, was eventually rescued by his friends.

As a result, Yazgan said, people could stop expecting anything from elders and authorities. “These feelings are at the core of depression,” Yazgan said, referring to the feeling of ambiguity and the need to look out for one’s self. As long as the authorities assure safety, bullying between individuals is free, Yazgan said, describing the current atmosphere as a reason to injure people’s feelings of safety. “Look at parents; they can leave the solution to a fight between siblings to them, but they punish the children more harshly if they disrespect one of the parents.

”The earthquake in the Marmara region in 1999 also affected this situation, he said. The trauma it created and the insufficiency in healing this trauma further caused a lack of trust. “After the quake, rather than questioning how safe Istanbul is, the city has become exaggerated, as with the European Capital of Culture,” he said. Yazgan also said there has been an increase in crimes committed within families, such as child abuse, maltreatment and even murder.

“It is not only about an exaggeration of media,” he said.The situation in Turkey is not that different from the one in the United States regarding these crimes, he said, except for the higher levels of drug addiction in children in the United States. “However, there is a great threat for this in Turkey, too.”

Yazgan graduated from Ege University Medical School in İzmir and before studying psychiatry at Marmara University. Later on, he studied child and adolescent psychiatry at Yale University in the United States.

Why did so many people die in Haiti's quake?

2010-02-15T16:29:00.002+02:00

Why did so many people die in Haiti's quake?

By Lucy Rodgers
BBC News

The devastating earthquakes that hit China on 12 May 2008, Italy on 6 April 2009 and Haiti one month ago all measured above 6.0 and took many lives. But why was the human cost so much greater for Haiti?

When Pete Garratt, Red Cross head of disaster relief, received an alert on 12 January indicating a large quake had hit Haiti near its capital Port-au-Prince, he instantly recognised the seriousness of the emergency.

"I knew that meant deaths and injuries," he says.

***

These countries have less money to put into buildings and there is less governance ensuring building codes are followed," Mr Garratt explains.

"Corruption can also be an issue and so, even when there are government structures to ensure building codes are followed, there are bribes that enable people to take short cuts.

"Put simply - there are the technical elements of the earthquake and then the social elements on top of that."

***

The resulting scale of destruction - of infrastructure, of government and other official organisations - also made it much more difficult to respond once the earthquake hit and had an impact on the number of people rescued from the rubble.

***

Full article here.

WHAT ABOUT THIS IDEA?

2010-02-15T10:47:00.004+02:00

One of my readers, Bayram Yıldızoğlu, is the head of this company, which makes a wall-coating, like a wallpaper, that reduces the risk of building collapse in an earthquake. I don't know much about this idea, but find it interesting. Does this idea really have the potential to mitigate risk in neighborhoods where proper retrofitting is not economically or politically feasible? I'd be curious to know what people who would be in a better position than me to evaluate this think.

http://files.me.com/b.yildizoglu/71q960

SO WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO ABOUT IT?

2010-02-15T06:14:00.002+02:00

Strong quake will decimate Istanbul, new scenario says
Sunday, February 14, 2010
ISTANBUL - Milliyet

August 21, 1999: Residents stand atop a collapsed building in the city of Gölcük, 100 kilometers east of Istanbul. That quake, known as the Marmara quake, killed thousands of people in western Turkey. AP Photo
A strong earthquake could kill up to 32,000 people if it strikes Istanbul, according to a quake scenario published by the Prime Ministry’s Disaster and Emergency Management Directorate.
Like many areas of Turkey, Istanbul lies close to major fault lines and has been previously hit by fatal quakes several times.
Another 81,828 people could be badly injured and more than a million could be left homeless in the event of a quake measuring at least 7 on the Richter scale with an epicenter in the Marmara Sea, according to the scenario, which was published last week.
The scenario was drafted by Professor Bülent Özmen, an academic from Gazi University in Ankara, and submitted to the Parliamentary Earthquake Research Committee by Murat Nurlu, the head of the Earthquake Directorate.
According to the scenario, 96 percent of Turkey faces a risk of quakes of varying strengths and 66 percent of the country lies on active fault lines.
The report stressed that the seismic hazard for regions where 70 percent of the country’s population lives and 75 percent of the areas hosting huge industry zones could be “tremendously” high.
According to the report, 223 devastating quakes hit Turkey between the years 1900 and 2009, killing a total of 86,000 people and either leveling or badly damaging 549,000 buildings.
The latest scenario envisions an earthquake with its epicenter in the Marmara Sea along the North Anatolian Fault Line, a major active geologic fault in northern Anatolia that runs along the tectonic boundary between the Anatolian and Eurasian plates. A strong quake measuring over 7 on the Richter scale is expected to hit Istanbul in this region.
The report did not provide a forecast time for an earthquake. Experts have previously said there is a 50 percent chance of a quake with a magnitude of at least 7 hitting the city within the next 30 years.
According to a report submitted by the Japan International Agency, or JICA, to Istanbul’s provincial council, a strong quake could kill up to 90,000 people living in Istanbul, Turkey’s most populous city.
The survey, conducted by four Japanese and 10 Turkish scientists and a team of engineers, stated that material damage could be $40 billion if there were a 7.7-magnitude earthquake in the city.
The provincial council had envisioned a an earthquake master plan to cope with a critical quake scenario. The council assessed the strength of buildings and pulling them down or reinforcing them if necessary.
Some 18,000 people, 1,000 of them in Istanbul, were killed in a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in northwest Turkey in August 1999.

***

I get the sense that the earthquake in Haiti did not deeply register here in Turkey. A few people noticed it, but I have the feeling it was not on the news 24 hours a day. It didn't really sink in. I was told when I got back that the news coverage was light, and focused mainly on the small Turkish Red Crescent delegation sent in the immediate aftermath.

It's normal that I paid attention to it more than most people -- my family was there, after all. But it also reflects some of the pathologies of Turkish culture. As a friend of mine noted, Turks don't really believe in something unless it's happening right in front of them. Most Turks think day-to-day, not long-term -- you can observe this in many aspects of Turkish economic development. The emphasis, on both the personal and national level, is rarely on long-term investment (as opposed to get-rich-quick schemes). And there is a doggedly stubborn inability to view risk rationally or solve problems cooperatively.

An engineer I spoke to the other day described one of the problems of doing retrofitting: It's costly, of course, but not as costly as a $40 billion dollars worth of post-quake cleanup. The issue is not so much the cost (if you look at it in that way, which is to say, rationally), but that to retrofit a building, you have to evacuate the inhabitants for six months. You could substantially reduce the costs through economies of scale -- retrofitting whole neighborhoods at a time. But trust in the government here is so low that were it announced, "We will make your buildings safe, but we need you to evacuate them for six months," no one would believe this was really the genuine intention. People would assume their property was to be permanently appropriated and sold to rich developers.

They might not even be wrong.

USEFUL LINKS ABOUT CRISIS MAPPING

2010-02-13T21:07:00.002+02:00

Crisis Mappers Net: The International Network of Crisis Mappers

Applying Technology to Crisis Mapping and Early Warning in Humanitarian Settings

New Technologies in Emergencies and Conflicts

Patrick Meier's iRevolution blog

Patrick Meier's Conflict Early Warning and Early Response blog

@crowdmanage

Frontline SMS

Geospatial Volunteer Corps

SMALL ENCOURAGING SIGNS

2010-02-12T17:27:00.002+02:00

I don't mean to be cryptic here. I'm just in a hurry. I've received a few e-mails and phone calls today that have given me a shyly optimistic feeling. I think more people paid attention to what I've been saying this past month than I realized. Perhaps it might result in something getting achieved.

God, I hope so.

IN CASE THOSE STUDIES BY THE TURKISH COURT OF ACCOUNTS WERE A LITTLE DRY FOR YOUR TASTE

2010-02-10T18:42:00.006+02:00

Full transcript here.

GEOFFREY KING: The earthquake that we expect would happen close to Istanbul will be as big, or bigger, than Izmit. Izmit killed 20,000 or even 30,000 people. The population density around Iz, Istanbul is ten times greater. The scale of the catastrophe to a European city is almost unimaginable.
NARRATOR: What makes this forecast so worrying is that many buildings have not been built to withstand a disaster of this kind.
CELAL SENGOR: We are now in one of the poorest parts of Istanbul. You can imagine that the buildings around us are not of the best quality. When the earthquake hits parts of these buildings will fall down, people will be trapped in them. Some of the people will be able to get out. Some of these streets have natural gas pipelines going under them. They will burst, right. You'll have fires rising. People will try to run away, they'll be ruined, they will try to clamber up, up. Rescue units will try to reach them. It will be complete mayhem in Istanbul if that happened.
NARRATOR: No one can yet tell when the earthquake storm will strike. The forecast simply cannot do this. It could be in 100 years time, it could be tomorrow. The scientists have at least identified where it is likely to hit next. This means there is still time to prepare.
GEOFFREY KING: The stress has been building up in Istanbul. We know there's going to be an earthquake. We don't really know when there's going to be an earthquake, but we know it'll be a major earthquake. Buildings can be improved, construction can be modified, emergency services can become better organised. There are very many things that can be done and this will bring the death toll down by ten times, or even 100 times and it is completely possible and it is economically feasible.
NARRATOR: So the forecast comes with hope. There is a chance this time that the people of Turkey can be prepared where the disaster strikes.

This sort of sums up the problem, really.

2010-02-09T18:42:00.003+02:00

Swine flu does not exist, says Bahçeli

“We have not taken any measures (against the H1N1 virus commonly known as swine flu). Everything is up to God’s will,” said Bahçeli, Anatolia news agency reported.

“The health minister tries to convince everyone to be vaccinated but I think he should convince the prime minister first of its necessity. As the prime minister approaches any issue ideologically, his decision on the vaccination must be ideological, too,” said Baykal.

THINGS THAT ARE ALREADY BEING DONE

2010-02-09T12:34:00.003+02:00

A lot of the work of advance-mapping has been done, and the idea of using SMS messages as part of a rapid response system is already part of the city's plan. I don't think it would be hard at all to integrate crowd-sourced information about potential hazards into these plans.

To assist in the reduction of losses in a disastrous earthquake in Istanbul a dense strong motion network is established. One hundred strong motion accelerometers have been placed in populated areas of Istanbul, within an area of approximately 50x30km, to constitute a network that will enable rapid shake map and damage assessment after a damaging earthquake. After triggered by an earthquake, each station will process the streaming strong motion to yield the spectral accelerations at specific periods and will send these parameters in the form of SMS messages to the main data center in KOERI through ARIA GSM network service. A shake map and damage distribution will be automatically generated. For transmission of the Rapid Response information to the concerned agencies (Istanbul Governorate, First Army Headquarters and Istanbul Municipality) through reliable and redundant communication channels: digital radio modem and GPRS communication systems are used.

Apparently the municipalities have already been mapping buildings that are expected to collapse, but given what I've seen firsthand of the way municipalities respond to these hazards, I'm not filled with faith by this news.

Some recent articles in the Turkish press:

Deprem raporu uykuları kaçırıyor!

İşte felaket raporu...

İstanbul'da birden fazla deprem bekleniyor

FORGET IT, JAKE, IT'S CHINATOWN

2010-02-08T09:09:00.002+02:00

I was taking another walk through my neighborhood yesterday and gaming out, in my head, what would probably happen here after an earthquake as big as the one expected.

There would be a military coup, for sure. Connoisseurs of Turkish politics will be familiar with the words "Sledgehammer," "Cage," "Emasya Protocols," and Blonde Girl." Lately the press has been full of lurid claims that the military has been scheming to create a pretext for a coup by bombing mosques or provoking Greek fighter jets. Whether or not this is true, it's pretty clear that this country isn't far from a coup on the best of days. In the aftermath of an event like that, it would be inevitable. It would probably have a lot of popular support from an enraged public, initially. Frankly, it would have my support -- as you can see clearly in Haiti, the most important thing after it happens is to have someone running the show. Anything to maintain security.

But we all know what happens here after a coup. Another generation of intellectuals would die, be imprisoned, go into exile. It would be the end of all attempts here to build civil society. Human rights? Forget it. Democracy? Forget that, too, for a good long time. And how long could the army hold on to power? Things are different here now than they were after the last three coups. The centrifugal pressures on Turkey are extreme. Ethnic tension seems to be mounting in ways it hasn't before; the polarity between the politically religious and the politically secular seems more acute than ever before in the history of the Republic. Any economic progress the country has made in the past decade would be erased, and quickly. It is not hard to imagine how bad it could get.

Whenever the inevitable disasters happen, the nutcases here gain traction. After the flooding last fall, I saw a proliferation of Islamist and communist graffiti, websites, banners, propaganda. The nice Islamists who run the corner grocery down the street from me were muttering darkly to themselves, watching the 24-hour Koran-a-thon station.

Even people who don't much care about Turkish lives should be able to see that the death and displacement of half a million Turks in an earthquake would be the end of any hope of stability and peace in this region. This is actually a problem people outside of Turkey might really wish to consider.

And no one seems to give a damn. “This is Turkey,” they say. “Nothing can be done.”

I’m appalled by this wall of passivity and fatalism —this isn't abstract. Hundreds of thousands of people will die because of shoddy construction and corruption, tens of thousands already have, and everyone goes along, lambs to the slaughter, murmuring we’re all powerless, it's so sad, we’re all powerless, would you like some more tea before they kill us? “Nothing can be done, it’s Turkey” ... “Forget it Jake, it’s Chinatown” ...

CELEBRITIES: START PLANNING

2010-02-06T15:01:00.007+02:00

Note to Sean Penn and Naomi Campbell: They're not really planning for this here, but that's no reason for you to be caught unawares. You'll want to reserve some time in your schedules for the weepy telethons and the fashion fund-raisers for the victims. There will be some excellent photo-ops for you as you show your solidarity with the Turkish people--after it's too goddamned late, of course.

From Istanbul's own municipal authories:

ISTANBUL, Aug 14 (Reuters) - A powerful earthquake could kill up to 90,000 people if it struck Turkey's biggest city Istanbul, which has suffered devastating quakes in the past, a report published by the city's municipality said on Thursday ... [the report] said 70,000-90,000 would be killed in the case of a quake of 7.5 or 7.7 magnitude.

Researchers present concerns to Turkish Prime Minister:

A multinational team of engineers and earth scientists has concluded that many buildings in Istanbul, the largest city in Turkey, are dangerously vulnerable to earthquake damage. The researchers have recently carried their message to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and are pushing for immediate action to prepare for potential disaster.

The researchers formed their conclusions in June during an extensive, five-day meeting on the risks facing Istanbul, a city of 12 million residents. The researchers analyzed seismic data and historical information as part of the effort, funded by the National Science Foundation and the Japan International Cooperation Agency. Since that time, the researchers have completed a report with numerous, urgent recommendations and recently presented their findings to the Turkish prime minister, members of his cabinet and their consultants this past November.

The team reiterated concerns that an earthquake with a Richter magnitude of 6.8 to 7.5 is likely to strike the city of Istanbul at some point over the next two to three decades. Because much of the infrastructure in that city was not designed for earthquake resistance, the researchers believe a large quake could kill thousands of people and collapse as many as 50,000 buildings - if not more.

Earthquake Study Suggests Simple Building Fixes Can Save Lives
Code enforcement may have prevented dozens of deaths in Turkish temblor

Experts urge action to protect Istanbul from earthquake

"There will be tremendous demands on the emergency response and hospital systems," Irfanoglu said. "We need to make sure that hospitals remain operational. Well-performing school buildings, besides the crucial fact that they would assure the safety of kids, could be used as shelters and emergency response centers after the earthquake."
Engineers also recommended that Turkey develop a communications system for emergency personnel that would function properly during such a catastrophe. Another critical need is to develop an educational program for construction and engineering professionals detailing how to retrofit and properly design buildings to resist the stresses imposed by earthquakes.

A disaster waiting to happen - why a huge earthquake near Istanbul seems inevitable

2010-02-06T14:54:00.003+02:00

Nervous residents of one of Europe's largest cities face devastation within 30 years
by Ian Traynor in Istanbul
The Guardian, Saturday 9 December 2006

From the top of Turkey's tallest building, the panorama over Istanbul is stunning. The huge city sprawls and crawls over a thousand hills and ravines. The Bosphorus, separating Europe from Asia, threads north to the Black Sea. To the south, beyond the domes and minarets of the old city, the turquoise waters of the Sea of Marmara push west towards the Aegean. It's all laid out before you.

Draped in large letters across four floors of glass, steel, and stone, the bank that owns the 180-metre-high (590ft) building brags: "We are here forever."

It's a brave statement towering over a city that straddles one of the most active seismic faultlines on the globe. A few miles away beneath the Marmara Sea, the North Anatolian fault line is stirring, virtually certain to rupture within a generation at the latest and bring much of Istanbul tumbling down.

"It's not a problem, totally safe. They did their homework when they built this. This can take 8 points on the Richter scale or even more," said a man brandishing a machine gun at the gates to the bank tower.

Built in the heart of a bustling business quarter not likely to risk its fortunes on the sand and mud that are the foundations for the homes of the city's millions of poor, the tower probably is secured against natural disaster.

Switch on your television set, however, and a very different message hits you. In a highly effective ad, the word Istanbul appears in capital letters made of stone across the screen. As a magnitude counter below clocks up the decimal points, the word cracks and crumbles into dust. A voice warns: "Like it or lump it, there is going to be a big destructive earthquake in Istanbul."

The ad is selling steel-girded flats and houses ostensibly guaranteed to cope with anything the North Anatolian fault can throw at them. In the past month, the company has sold more than 60 flats and cannot keep up with demand.

"Maybe the advert's a bit scary. But we're dealing in facts," said Cuneyt Kilic, deputy director of the building firm. "We're just reminding people. You can't ignore this. All the experts say that a seriously big earthquake in Istanbul will definitely happen."

It is not a question of if but when. Every year under the sea, the southern slab of the fault pushes up from the Arabian peninsula, shifting the northern plate 2.5cm (one inch) towards Greece, a very fast rate of rupture.

Predictions

"It's inevitable, a certainty," said Professor Okan Tuysuz, director of the Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences at the city's Technical University. "We know the scale. We know the place. We just don't know exactly when, but there's a 65% probability that Istanbul will be hit by a 7.6 earthquake by 2030. That's a very high probability."

This prediction is supported by a torrent of research in recent years that has highlighted the vulnerability of this city, which is one of Europe's biggest, and the challenges of being ready for such a natural disaster. With a population of up to 15 million, growing at an estimated 400,000 a year, and with 1.6m buildings, the effect of the gloom-mongering is to engender mass anxiety about life choices: where to live, how to afford it, how to get organised.

"I'm living in a safe area, very strong, earthquake-proof," said a successful middle-class professional in his 30s. "But I'm paying a very high rent. It's a simple equation here. The rents are high where the earth is strong."

Prof Tuysuz said: "The European side of Istanbul is built on soft rock, the north and the Asian side sits on hard old rock. That's why the rich have their villas in the Bosphorus area [in the north]."

Istanbul is a famously gloomy place, and psychologists say quake-phobia is compounding that mood.

"Many people are fatalistic, leaving everything to destiny. It's a way of ignoring reality and trying to cope with the anxiety," said Ibrahim Eke, a psychologist who spent three years counselling victims of the Izmit quake, which struck 60 miles east of Istanbul in 1999. "Others are active, organising street committees to stop bad car parking that could block exits from buildings, nailing furniture to walls and floors, organising fire precautions."

Since the fifth century, Istanbul has suffered serious quake damage 12 times, most recently at the end of the 19th century. More ominously, since 1939 there have been seven earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 7 points, all on the Anatolian fault and all marching westward from eastern Turkey in a linear progression to the gates of Istanbul.

Until 1999 the little that was known about the fault had come from geological surveying related to oil and gas prospecting and was quite misleading, according to the scientists.

All that changed with the Izmit earthquake. This and a second tremor three months later left almost 20,000 dead and 600,000 homeless. It also triggered an intense bout of geological investigations. The US Geological Survey, Italian, French, and Japanese experts, Turkish institutes and Swiss Re, a reinsurance company, all intensified their studies.

The research found that the problem was not, as previously believed, a series of small, separate faults under the Sea of Marmara, but a single 1,000-mile faultline running east to west. Each time a major rupture occurs on the faultline, it "transfers stress" further along the line, making a subsequent earthquake more likely.

"The results clearly indicate that the probability for a major earthquake hitting Istanbul in the near future is far greater than previously anticipated," reported Swiss Re.

It is not possible to predict precisely when an earthquake will strike. But more refined techniques are being used to produce more accurate probability predictions. A year after the 1999 earthquake, the US Geological Survey calculated there was a 62% chance of a major Istanbul earthquake within 30 years. In 2004, Tom Parsons of the survey team reported that the probability had risen to as high as 70%.

Istanbul is far from unique. San Francisco, Los Angeles and Japan are equally exposed to risk. But California and Japan are two of the wealthiest spots on the planet, built, structured, and organised to withstand the enormous jolt.

The World Bank is pouring hundreds of millions into Istanbul's quake readiness measures. The city authorities have tightened building regulations and there are calls to demolish tens of thousands of buildings. "The city is trying its best. But there's still an awful lot of illegal building going on," said Mr Kilic of the firm building the quake-proof housing.

"About 65% of buildings in Istanbul don't meet the rules and the city is growing too fast for anyone to be able to keep up. Things have improved, but not quickly enough to cope with the problem," said Prof Tuysuz.

Worst scenario

At his Earth Sciences Institute, Prof Tuysuz has ranked the city into five zones and is using computer models to develop scenarios for the impact of a 7.4-7.6 earthquake. At worst, he said, a 7.6 quake in the Sea of Marmara could hit 40% of the city, affecting up to 5 million people. A "mini-tsunami" up to seven metres high is also feared from the Sea of Marmara. Others talk of "only" 10,000 buildings being destroyed.

Mr Eke, the psychologist, said the most optimistic scenario was that a big earthquake would leave a minimum of 10% of the inhabitants gravely traumatised, meaning 1.5 million people.

Far to the west of the city in the district of Avcilar directly overlooking the Sea of Marmara, blocks of flats are emptying and For Rent signs are sprouting.

"There used to be rich people here," said Cetin Subasi, a waterfront tailor. "But anybody with money's moved out and poor people have moved in. They say this is the danger zone. I don't know. I've lived here 20 years. Maybe they're right or maybe they're wrong."

Backstory
Istanbul's long history as the capital of two empires before becoming the biggest city in modern Turkey means there is a wealth of historical data on earthquakes. Scientists have combed the records going back 1,500 years, establishing that the city has suffered "heavy damage" from 12 tremors The North Anatolian fault, one of the most active seismic zones in the world, runs within a few miles of the city under the Sea of Marmara. Since the disastrous Erzincan earthquake in December 1939 in eastern Turkey, there have been six earthquakes along the fault with a magnitude greater than seven points, all progressing from east to west. The most recent, in 1999, was less than 60 miles east of Istanbul.

The Gormogons: Want to save tens of thousands of people? [UPDATED]

2010-02-06T12:41:00.000+02:00

The Gormogons: Want to save tens of thousands of people? [UPDATED]

Note especially the reference to this study.

The 12 earthquakes that damaged Istanbul during the past 1500 years attest to a significant hazard and form the basis for a 30-year Poisson, or time-averaged, probability of 15 to 25%. Because the major faults near Istanbul are likely late in their earthquake cycles (with no major shocks since 1894), the renewal probability climbs to 49 ± 15%. We calculate that stress changes altered the rate of seismicity after the 1999 Izmit earthquake, promoting the M ± 7.2 Düzce shock and the Yalova cluster. Because the 1999 Izmit shock is calculated to have similarly increased stress on faults beneath the Marmara Sea, the interaction-based probability we advocate climbs still higher, to 62 ± 15%.

İSTANBUL DEPREME NASIL HAZIRLANIYOR?

2010-02-06T09:43:00.001+02:00

İSTANBUL DEPREME NASIL HAZIRLANIYOR?

FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH

2010-02-04T23:53:00.004+02:00

I had an eerie conversation with a cab driver today. It seems I'm not the only one in Istanbul who was spooked by the earthquake in Port-au-Prince. No, I wasn't the one who brought it up. As we drove through the city, he was pointing to the buildings that would collapse. Our judgment was pretty similar. We agreed that my neighborhood looked pretty good, except for some of the newer buildings.

This judgment, by the way, is shared by the Boğazici University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, which predicts that only 20 percent of the buildings in my neighborhood would collapse. You might want to look up that report if you live, say, in Avcılar, but I would suggest you move, first.

Some highlights from a 2002 report by the Turkish Court of Accounts, below. (Yes, 2002 was a while ago, but in many neighborhoods the situation has gotten worse, not better.)

HOW WELL IS ISTANBUL GETTING PREPARED

FOR THE EARTHQUAKE?

by the Turkish Court of Accounts

14. Despite timing of possible Istanbul earthquake is not known precisely,

possibility of its occurrence within 30 years is estimated to be %65.

It is expected that possible earthquake would cause severe damage in

Istanbul. The reason for this assumption is that the number of building in

Istanbul is high, a part of which are unlicensed and illegal and those with

licenses are constructed without performing their ground studies. Adding to

these, building inspections and controls are not effective enough.

• In plans prepared by some service groups, it was not considered that

assigned personnel themselves might be earthquake victim and their

substitutes were not designated. (P. 2.32)

Summaryand Recommendations

• Plans are not prepared with an approach that puts forward the concepts

of risk and priority. Risks and priorities are not taken into consideration

in the planning. (P. 2.32)

• Persons who have a role in the plan do not have necessary training

enabling them to do their share of task. For instance, the knowledge of

personnel trained for search and rescue, is below international standards

of this field, and quality as well as the duration of training is

dramatically insufficient. (P. 2.33)

• Although the inventory of equipments to be used for rescue services is

kept, there is no system that monitors and updates the movement and

last status of these equipments. (P. 2.33)

(P.3.8)

• At certain locations found inappropriate for settlement after ground

survey, there are buildings that were constructed beforehand. There is

no plan or project related to these buildings.

• Municipalities charged with conducting building development plans do

not have adequate facilities, equipments and personnel to fulfill this

duty in an effective manner. (P. 3.12, 3.13)

• Provisions of legislations related to prevention of buildings constructed

without license or against its license cannot be enforced decently.

• There are no prevocational and in-service training safeguarding the

professional competence of personnel working at construction sites. (P.

3.19)

5. Two thirds of Istanbul’s current housing stock is comprised of buildings

with no building permit or certificate of occupancy.

Additionally, in case of a possible earthquake;

• Multiple under and over passes as well as viaducts would be damaged;

• E-5 and TEM highways would be blocked;

• Damages to natural gas network would lead to big explosions and fires

unless the pressure was reduced via an “Early Warning” system;

Ambarlı Thermal Power Plant would be severely damaged, and become

nonfunctional, which would lead to longtime electricity cut in Istanbul

according to assumptions in case of a scenario earthquake.

1.2 There are approximately 1 200 000 privately-owned and over 10 000

public building in Istanbul where more than half of current housing stock is

either unlicensed or contrary to their licenses, and there is no possibility of

deriving sound statistical information as most of the buildings are not

registered.

3.2 Experts list main factors transforming an earthquake into a deadly

disaster as follows:

• Unplanned housing,

building development

plans contradictory to

science together with

wrong selection of

place;

• Illegal, unlicensed

housing;

• Licensed but

uncontrolled housing;

• Lack of legal sanctions

in preventing these

irregularities.

(İSTABUL’DA) DEPREMDEN KORUNMAK İÇİN USHAHIDI MODELİNİ UYGULAMAK

2010-02-04T08:42:00.002+02:00

Kiminiz uzun zamandır, İstanbul’daki binaların inşaat ve güvenlik standartları üzerinde çalıştığımı biliyorsunuz. Bunun en büyük nedeni İstanbul’un son derece aktif bir fay hattı üzerinde bulunması. Haiti’deki depremden sonra yaşananlar, tedirginliğimi azaltmak şöyle dursun, daha da artırdı.

Bir gazeteci olarak söylediğim ya da yazdığım hiçbir şey bu konuda herhangi bir adım atılmasını sağlamadı. Birçok farklı sebepten, çözümü fevkalade zor bir problem bu.

Son zamanlarda, çevremin de desteğiyle, bu soruna daha başka yaklaşımlar da olabilir, diye düşünüyorum.

Bugünlerde USHAHIDI’nin insanları haber kaynakları olarak kullanan “kitle açılımı” planını inceliyorum. Bu açılıma göre, İnternet erişimi olan herkes bu müşterek çabaya dahil olup elindeki bilgileri paylaşabiliyor ve krizin ayrıntılarıyla ele alınmasına yardımcı olabiliyor. Bu sistem, meydana gelen depremden sonra Haiti’de çok etkili bir şekilde uygulandı. Bu link, sistemin orada nasıl işlediğini gösteriyor.

Böyle bir projenin İstanbul ve/veya ciddi bir doğal felaket riski altında bulunan bütün şehirler için hasarı/zararı önleme ve azaltma konusunda etkili olacağını düşünüyorum.

Sistemin ana fikri şu:

1. İnsanların, cep telefonları ile, bildikleri ya da şüphelendikleri sorunlu yapıları yetkililere bildirebilmeleri için bir yol bulmak. (Örneğin, radyo yayını aracılığıyla şöyle bir mesaj gönderilebilir: “Binanızın güvenliğinden emin değilseniz, 4636’yı arayın. Ya da endişelerinizi kısa mesaj olarak yollayın.” İnsanlar aradığında, şikâyet etmek ya da bilgi vermek istedikleri konuda onları yönlendirecek bir kayıt da olabilir. Örneğin: “Binanızın kolonları desteksiz mi? Bire basın.” ya da “Ticari bir kuruluşun –market/mağaza- üzerinde mi yaşıyorsunuz? İkiye basın.” İnsanlardan gelen bilgi ve talebe göre otomatik bir yanıt/uyarı sistemi oluşturabilir. İstanbul için konuşursak, “güçlendirilmiş bir binaya taşının” demek ekonomik açıdan pek gerçekçi olmaz. Ancak “evinizde size iki hafta yetecek kadar su bulundurun” demek son derece mantıklı bir öneri olur.)

2. Bir deprem sırasında binanızın yıkılma riskine karşı bir yol haritası belirleyin. Bir planınız olsun.

3. Eğitimli gönüllüler ile bir harita hazırlayın: Hangi mahalle ve semtlerin, hangi binaların şiddetli bir depremde ciddi hasar göreceğini hesaplayın. Burada “ciddi hasar” derken “tost olmak” ya da temelleri üzerine çökmekten bahsediyorum. Hangi binalarda çok sayıda insan olacağı ve şehrin hangi bölgesi/bölgelerindeki altyapının çökme riskinin daha yüksek olduğu hesaplayın.

4. Elinizde bu amaçla hazırlanmış bir harika olması, kurtarma timlerine bir başlangıç noktası verecektir ve büyük ihtimalle bunu kullanacaklardır. Bu harita çok sayıda hayat kurtarabilir. Depremden sonra geçen her saniye önemlidir.

5. Yalnızca bu proje bile deprem riskiyle yaşarken yapılması gerekenler konusunda bir farkındalık ve bilinç yaratabilir: Ne tür binalardan taşınılması, hangi binalarda oturulmaması gerektiği, bina güçlendirmesinin önemi ve insanların evlerinde hazır bulundurması gereken acil durum malzemeleri.

En temel fikir, ana fikir bu.

Bu projenin uygulanabilirliği ve akla yatkın olup olmadığını düşünüyorum. Eğer mantıklıysa, nasıl hayata geçirilebilir? Bu blog’u, sesli düşünmek isteyenler için bir merkez olarak kullanacağım. (Blog’u bilmiyorsanız ve yeniyseniz, bu blog, isminde de anlaşılacağı üzere, İstanbul’daki dövüş sanatları hakkında incelemeler üzerine açılmış bir blog’du. İnsanların bu konuya çok ilgi gösterdiklerini söyleyemeyeceğim ki pek de haksız sayılmazlar.)

Bugüne kadar benimle birlikte bu konuya kafa yoranlar ya da bugün başlamak isteyenler, “Yorum” bölümüne fikirlerini yazabilirler. Facebook kullanıcısı olmayan çok sayıda insan var ve kitle açılımının temel kaynağı kitledir.

Lütfen bu yazıyı mümkün olduğunca çok kişiye gönderin ve dağıtın. Bu sistemi tek başıma çalıştırmamın imkânı yok.

APPLYING USHAHIDI'S MODEL TO DISASTER PREVENTION IN ISTANBUL

2010-02-03T09:57:00.004+02:00

Some of you may know that I've been preoccupied with construction-safety standards in Istanbul for quite some time, particularly because Istanbul is on a very active fault line. Recent events in Haiti have done little to allay my anxiety.

Nothing I've said or written, as a journalist, has done a thing to improve this situation. For many reasons, it is an extraordinarily difficult problem to solve. (You can skip the links in that last sentence; those are articles I've written about the political and historical obstacles, in Turkey and elsewhere, to building the kinds of institutions needed to mitigate the risk. The links in the first paragraph are much more important.)

I've been encouraged lately by the thought that there might be a more effective way to approach the problem.

I've recently been studying USHAHIDI's crowd-sourcing platform. It permits anyone with access to the Internet to contribute to a collective effort to map crisis information. It's been put to exceptionally good use in Haiti since the earthquake. This link shows how it's been working there.

I suspect that a project like this would be also be effective for disaster prevention and damage mitigation in Istanbul and in other high-risk cities.

The basic idea:

1) Create a simple way for people to report known or suspected construction problems via their cellphones. (For example, broadcast this message on the radio: "If you're worried about your building, dial 4636. You can send us a text message about your concern." There could be a recording, when people call, that asks them to press 1, 2, etc. to report relevant information, e.g., "Does your building have unsupported columns," "Do you live above a commercial establishment," etc.) Based on what people report, an automated system could also offer realistic advice. (For many people here, "move to a retrofitted building" is not economically realistic. "Keep a two-week supply of water in your home" is realistic.)

2) Create an algorithm or decision tree to predict the probability of building collapse.

3) Using trained volunteers, compile a map, based on this information, predicting which buildings and neighborhoods are most likely to be in serious trouble in a major earthquake -- that is, which buildings are most in danger of pancaking or falling off their foundations, which ones are most likely to be very full of people, which parts of the city's infrastructure are most likely to fail.

4) Having a map like this compiled in advance would give rescuers a head start, possibly a considerable one. This could save many lives. After an earthquake, every second matters.

5) The project itself might raise awareness about basic earthquake preparation, the importance of moving out of certain kinds of buildings, the urgency of retrofitting, and the kinds of disaster supplies people need to have on hand.

This is the very basic idea.

I want to think about the feasibility of this and figure out whether it makes sense, and if so, exactly how to do it. I'm going to use this blog for now as a central location for ideas. (If you're new here, this used to be a blog about studying the martial arts in Istanbul, hence the name. The world was not particularly interested in that subject, and I suppose rightly so.)

People who have been thinking about this idea with me so far, or who would like to start, might want to use the comment section here for their ideas, for now. There are still people out there who don't use Facebook. The key to crowd-sourcing is a crowd.

Please forward this widely; there is no way on God's earth I can make this work on my own.

WORLD'S MOST BEAUTIFUL TRAIN RIDES

2010-02-03T08:49:00.002+02:00

I'm supposed to be writing an article about the world's most beautiful train rides. Sadly, the assignment does not involve actually riding a train. It does at least involve thinking about riding trains.

If you've taken a particularly beautiful train ride, would you mind telling me about it? I'm especially interested in train rides that have some interesting connection to literature or film (e.g., obviously, the Orient Express). But any unusually beautiful train ride might do. I'm looking for a mixture of very-famous trains and trains no one has ever thought of taking before.

Here are a few I'm thinking of including, based on the pretty photos on the Internet. Have you actually taken one of these trains? Can you confirm or discourage my outsized fantasies about the beauty of the ride? If so, I'd be especially glad to hear from you.

Oslo-Bergen
Madrid-Oviedo
Bernina Express
Grutschalp-Murren
Lucerne-Interlaken
Messina-Catania
Kyle of Localsh
Glasgow-Fort William
Bratislava-Stary Smocovic
Lake Garda-Brenner-Salzburg
Trondheim-Bodo
Middlesborough-Whitby
Mt. Snowdon in Wales
The West Highland Line from Mallaig to Glasgow
Le Petit Train Jaune from Pyrenees Orientales via Nice to Limone.
Andalusian Express
Lucerne-Interlakenaris-Chamonix
London-Bath
Diakofto-Kalavrita
Madrid-Avila
Hiram-Bingham Express from Cuzco to Machu Picchu
Alaskan Railroad
Cooper Canyon Railway
Blue Train from Pretoria to Cape Town
Ghan from Adelaide to Darwin.
Toy Train from Siliguri to Darjeeling
Qingzang railways from mainland China to Lhasa
Singapore-Bangkok
The Silverton-Durango Narrow Gage
La Nariz Del Diablo from Riobamba to Alausi
New Delhi-Jaipur-Jaisalmer-Jodhpur-Agra-Delhi
Sydney-Perthdney-Cairns
South Africa-Botswana-Zimbabwe-Zambia-Tanzania

Note to my editor: My commitment to accurate, first-hand reporting is so passionate that if you'd like to reconsider your budget, I will personally undertake to ride every one of these trains, back-to-back, beginning today. I will verify that they are beautiful with my own eyes. That is how hard I will work for you. That is the dedication and professionalism I will bring to my job. All you have to do is pick up the tab.

PREVENTING ISTANBUL FROM BECOMING THE NEXT PORT-AU-PRINCE

2010-02-02T17:24:00.003+02:00

The martial-arts blogging is on hiatus. I'm going to have ideas about using crowd-sourcing technology to improve Istanbul's earthquake preparation here soon. If you'd like to help me think this problem through, stay tuned.

CHANGE OF SUBJECT

2010-01-25T04:33:00.003+02:00

If you're here for unqualified martial-arts advice, I'm afraid you've caught me at a bad time. All things considered, folks, just buy a gun and learn to use it. In the meantime, if you live on a fault line and suspect your home might collapse in an earthquake, move. That's the best self-defense advice I've got for you these days.

From Mischa

2010-01-16T06:54:00.004+02:00

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:00:15 AM)

Hello!

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:00:21 AM)

How are you?

Mischa says: (6:00:25 AM)

Hi!

Mischa says: (6:00:29 AM)

I'm so glad you're here.

Mischa says: (6:00:34 AM)

So here's the situation.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:00:36 AM)

Why would I be anywhere else?

Mischa says: (6:00:37 AM)

The Italians are great.

Mischa says: (6:00:41 AM)

I don't know.

Mischa says: (6:00:53 AM)

They told me that no Italian animal is ever left behind.

Mischa says: (6:00:59 AM)

Of course I can take Pites tomorrow.

Mischa says: (6:01:04 AM)

BUT the plane tomorrow is too small.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:01:11 AM)

I mean, my brother's in a fucking disaster zone, it would be kind of cold to go off to Muay Thai right now.

Mischa says: (6:01:19 AM)

It's the President of Italy's personal jet.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:01:28 AM)

Mischa says: (6:01:29 AM)

So I can't leave yet if I'm to save Pites.

Mischa says: (6:01:48 AM)

I have to wait a week.

The problem is, I don't have an official link with the UN once Cristina is gone.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:02:50 AM)

Ah.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:03:01 AM)

You did marry the woman.

Mischa says: (6:03:05 AM)

I was offered a contract with WFP today,

Mischa says: (6:03:20 AM)

but they can't get it aprroved and signed and so on for at least a week.

Mischa says: (6:03:23 AM)

It needs to go to Rome.

Mischa says: (6:03:38 AM)

But I can't abandon Pites.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:03:39 AM)

Hey, are we going to get cut off soon?

Mischa says: (6:03:40 AM)

I just can't.

Mischa says: (6:03:44 AM)

I don't think so.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:03:50 AM)

Because if so, we should sharpen up the communication a bit.

Mischa says: (6:03:52 AM)

I'm at Log Base.

Mischa says: (6:03:56 AM)

Oh.

Mischa says: (6:04:00 AM)

Everyone's a critic.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:04:20 AM)

No, you can't leave Pites. Are you saying that if you stay behind, they'll throw you and the cat out on the streets to fend for yourselves?

Mischa says: (6:04:29 AM)

Not sure.

Mischa says: (6:04:33 AM)

The situation is very fluid.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:04:49 AM)

Because you know, I don't think it sounds so good on the streets.

Mischa says: (6:04:50 AM)

But most Italians have decided to stay for the time, not go.

Mischa says: (6:05:02 AM)

It really depends on where and what and how things are going.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:05:16 AM)

Can you just put Pites in a knapsack and take her with you tomorrow?

Mischa says: (6:05:27 AM)

Meow. Meow. Meow. Ad infinitum.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:05:32 AM)

I mean, are they really examining the contents of the luggage that closely?

Mischa says: (6:05:41 AM)

No luggage allowed.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:05:45 AM)

Well, once you're airborn, who cares? Oh, I see.

Mischa says: (6:05:53 AM)

They were totally sympathetic.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:06:14 AM)

What was there recommendation for where you stay while waiting a week?

Mischa says: (6:06:15 AM)

But I can be evacuated anytime I want by the Americans.

Mischa says: (6:06:21 AM)

I just go to the airport.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:06:29 AM)

And what's their cat policy?

Mischa says: (6:06:35 AM)

And the Italians will evacuate me also, on the next flight.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:06:36 AM)

Is going to the airport easy?

Mischa says: (6:06:48 AM)

Claire?

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:06:56 AM)

That's me.

Mischa says: (6:06:58 AM)

Getting to the airport is easy enough.

Mischa says: (6:07:33 AM)

Getting around is not difficult.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:08:00 AM)

But?

Mischa says: (6:08:11 AM)

No buts.

Mischa says: (6:08:15 AM)

I'm just cluing you in.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:08:26 AM)

I feel there's a question here I'm supposed to answer, though.

Mischa says: (6:08:35 AM)

Not really.

Mischa says: (6:08:42 AM)

I just feel bad if I stay and bad if I go.

Mischa says: (6:08:55 AM)

I feel totally lousy about everything.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:09:17 AM)

Well, it's kind of a bad-feeling situation, what with everyone dead, screaming, dying, maimed, starving, and hopeless.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:09:39 AM)

I think it would be quite abnormal to be feeling terrific.

Mischa says: (6:09:45 AM)

Yes.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:10:25 AM)

You can't leave Pites.

Mischa says: (6:10:32 AM)

If they relent at the airport and they let me take Pites, I'll leave tomorrow.

Mischa says: (6:10:36 AM)

If not, I'm staying here.

Mischa says: (6:11:02 AM)

I can't leave here.

Mischa says: (6:11:05 AM)

They'll eat her.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:11:11 AM)

I agree.

Mischa says: (6:11:33 AM)

I guess I never need to finish that novel now.

Mischa says: (6:11:36 AM)

That's a good thing.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:11:48 AM)

And if you have to stay, I don't see how they could tell you -- oh, of course not, you're made, now --

Mischa says: (6:12:16 AM)

It's kind of like when twenty years ago God sent that huge earthquake in SF to get me out of my 11th grade biology exam.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:12:20 AM)

I don't see how they could tell the husband of a UN employee who is there only as her husband that he's on the street.

Mischa says: (6:12:28 AM)

Yes, they can.

Mischa says: (6:12:32 AM)

They offered to evacuate me.

Mischa says: (6:12:40 AM)

There is no housing here.

Mischa says: (6:12:49 AM)

Also, I don't want to be here.

Mischa says: (6:12:53 AM)

Logbase is awful.

Mischa says: (6:13:19 AM)

If Cristina were dead or missing, of course, I really could just hang around indefinitely.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:13:48 AM)

Well, if they turf you out of logbase with your cat, what would you do?

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:14:00 AM)

I mean, it doesn't sound like you could just check into a comfy hotel.

Mischa says: (6:14:00 AM)

Claire, I'm definitely going home.

Mischa says: (6:14:09 AM)

My house is totally fine.

Mischa says: (6:14:17 AM)

I gave the keys to my Haitian neighbors.

Mischa says: (6:14:24 AM)

We'll all live there for a week.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:14:45 AM)

You got any kind of security there?

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:14:51 AM)

Water?

Mischa says: (6:15:29 AM)

Plenty of water, good security.

Mischa says: (6:15:54 AM)

But friends with better places still have offered me accomodations.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:16:00 AM)

Who's providing the security? Don't you imagine lots of people are going to want that water?

Mischa says: (6:16:45 AM)

Of course that's true.

Mischa says: (6:16:54 AM)

But for the time being, things remain calm.

Mischa says: (6:17:03 AM)

But I can't just abandon Pites.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:17:20 AM)

What is the US policy on taking her?

Mischa says: (6:17:36 AM)

Negative.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:17:43 AM)

Why?

Mischa says: (6:18:04 AM)

Beats me.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:18:33 AM)

Probably to avoid the PR problem of people saying, "Look, they rescue their pets but not us."

Mischa says: (6:18:48 AM)

I guess.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:19:31 AM)

I would think given the general chaos that you might have a reasonable chance of talking your way onto the flight with the cat.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:19:43 AM)

Do you know who the captain is?

Mischa says: (6:19:48 AM)

Anne thinks you're amazing, by the way.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:19:54 AM)

Anne does?

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:20:01 AM)

On what basis?

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:20:21 AM)

Never mind. Let's focus on Pites, since you might get cut off.

Mischa says: (6:20:47 AM)

I won't get cut off/

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:20:49 AM)

If I knew who was making the pet policy, maybe I could get a waiver for you.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:21:03 AM)

That directive comes from somewhere, after all.

Mischa says: (6:21:07 AM)

Claire, it's not a pet policy. THe plane is simply not large enough.

Mischa says: (6:21:20 AM)

They were fervidly pro-Pites.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:21:32 AM)

Well look, you plus Pites equals one slightly chubby person.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:21:44 AM)

Or even one normal-weight person, since you're quite slender.

Mischa says: (6:21:52 AM)

Uh huh.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:22:29 AM)

Is this a military plane or a commercial one?

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:23:30 AM)

By the way, how is Bruno holding up?

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:23:38 AM)

Rossella was quite worried.

Mischa says: (6:23:40 AM)

All things considering, he's holding up well.

Mischa says: (6:23:45 AM)

Very well.

Mischa says: (6:23:50 AM)

But it's good that he leaves tomorrow.

But the article they wrote about Cristina is a pure fiction.

Mischa says: (6:24:30 AM)

Every detail is wrong.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:24:36 AM)

and as if you all nearly perished at the hands of a demented machete-wielding zombie army in your home.

Mischa says: (6:24:36 AM)

And every quotation invented.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:24:42 AM)

I reckoned so.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:25:13 AM)

I figure the Turkish and the Italian press: same-same.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:25:53 AM)

OK, back to Pites: If you can't get her on the plane, you wait until you can, and you go to the safest place you can find in the interim, is that right?

Mischa says: (6:26:14 AM)

Or if I can things squared away, I get a UN badge and start work.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:26:21 AM)

What work would you do?

Mischa says: (6:26:22 AM)

But yes, that's the plan.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:26:27 AM)

And do you want me to come?

Mischa says: (6:26:32 AM)

They wanted me to write reports.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:26:33 AM)

I mean, I was planning to, anyway.

Mischa says: (6:26:40 AM)

No, what would you do here?

Mischa says: (6:26:46 AM)

How would you get here?

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:26:48 AM)

Well, whatever might help.

Mischa says: (6:26:57 AM)

Also, my pal Ben Lowy is showing up in a few days to take photos.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:26:58 AM)

There are some volunteer groups going out;

Mischa says: (6:27:03 AM)

Really?

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:27:04 AM)

I have a plane ticket already.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:27:06 AM)

Yes.

Mischa says: (6:27:18 AM)

Are there commercial flights in and out?

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:27:23 AM)

Dunno,

Mischa says: (6:27:47 AM)

I kind of doubt it.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:27:58 AM)

Darnley Merzier Bryan Looking for Fluent English & Creole Speakers to go to Haiti THIS SUNDAY fOR 30 Days. TRAINING IS ALL DAY TOMORROW WITH THE RED CROSS- Email your info to: maevatheartist@gmail.com ASAP and will receive a phone call.( SERIOUS AND DEDICATED ONLY- THIS IS ALL VOLUNTEER)

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:28:08 AM)

I wrote, they said they'd contact me.

Mischa says: (6:28:17 AM)

You don't speak Creole.

Mischa says: (6:28:33 AM)

I'm sure I could find work outside the UN system.

Mischa says: (6:28:53 AM)

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:28:53 AM)

No, but I speak French.

Mischa says: (6:29:06 AM)

Wouldn't help.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:29:19 AM)

Well, whatever. If they want me, should I come?

Mischa says: (6:29:24 AM)

No.

Mischa says: (6:29:27 AM)

It fucking sucks here.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:29:31 AM)

I know.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:29:36 AM)

But maybe I could help.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:29:55 AM)

OK.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:30:03 AM)

Well, get out fast, then.

Mischa says: (6:30:15 AM)

I want to.

Mischa says: (6:30:20 AM)

But I have to save Pites.

Mischa says: (6:30:24 AM)

She's family.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:30:39 AM)

Is there no one you would trust to bring her on a later plane?

Mischa says: (6:30:43 AM)

Nope.

Mischa says: (6:30:59 AM)

You can't ask anyone to do that, you know?

Mischa says: (6:31:09 AM)

It's a big responsibility.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:31:54 AM)

OK. What is the flight number of the plane you'd be taking tomorrow?

Mischa says: (6:31:56 AM)

There you go.

Mischa says: (6:32:11 AM)

It's a private flight organized by the Italian government.

Mischa says: (6:32:16 AM)

There is no flight number.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:32:20 AM)

Flight commander?

Mischa says: (6:33:02 AM)

What the hell do I know?

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:33:30 AM)

Get me info about this -- do not doubt my magical powers here at HQS! --

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:34:03 AM)

I may know someone who would know someone who could encourage them to think of Pites in the right way.

Mischa says: (6:34:22 AM)

Not with the Italian government.

Mischa says: (6:34:23 AM)

Trust me.

Mischa says: (6:34:31 AM)

They were totally PRO Pites.

Mischa says: (6:34:36 AM)

They insisted she be evacuated.

Mischa says: (6:34:41 AM)

Just on the next flight.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:34:49 AM)

Ah, you said that about them not really, really wanting the licence plate. They really, really wanted it.

Mischa says: (6:35:05 AM)

Incidentally, almost the entire Italian community is NOT leaving.

Mischa says: (6:35:14 AM)

That's why the plane is so small, because almost every wants to stay.

Mischa says: (6:35:33 AM)

I don't doubt they wanted the license plate.

Mischa says: (6:35:41 AM)

I just doubted they could do anything useful with it.

Mischa says: (6:35:56 AM)

My good friend Pooja wrote this:

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:36:02 AM)

Well, I am very willing to use my extensive network of networked people to see if I can make them an offer they can't refuse, where Pites is concerned.

Mischa says: (6:36:24 AM)

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/14/opinion/14bhatia.html?hp

Mischa says: (6:36:40 AM)

You will have no pull with the wops on this one.

Mischa says: (6:36:45 AM)

And it will not be appreciated.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:37:04 AM)

"Pull" isn't the right way to think of it.

Mischa says: (6:38:07 AM)

Please, I have enough trouble with my meddlesome father in law.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:38:56 AM)

At your service. I am just offering, should you wish to accept.

Mischa says: (6:39:56 AM)

One step at a time.

Mischa says: (6:40:02 AM)

I'm going to bed.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:40:18 AM)

OK, but if you want me to work on that, give me advance notice.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:40:29 AM)

Any other message you want me to pass on?

Mischa says: (6:40:38 AM)

Hey! How's our mom doing?

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:40:41 AM)

ANyone else alive?

Mischa says: (6:40:46 AM)

She hasn't called, hasn't emailed.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:40:51 AM)

She's fine.

Mischa says: (6:41:06 AM)

And you'd think she'd make an effort to stay on IM, but she hasn't.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:41:07 AM)

She's basically not the one you want with you in a foxhole.

Mischa says: (6:44:49 AM)

I've got to go now.

Mischa says: (6:44:51 AM)

I'm too sleepy.

Mischa says: (6:45:00 AM)

I'll keep you informed.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:45:01 AM)

OQuiclly: Anyone else alive?

Mischa says: (6:45:19 AM)

I'm at Logbase. I know less than you.

Mischa says: (6:45:40 AM)

All I know is what I see on the internet.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:45:40 AM)

How long would you guess it would be before cell coverage is restored>

Mischa says: (6:46:04 AM)

Funny thing is, people say it IS restored, at least on the Voila and Haitel networks.

Mischa says: (6:46:15 AM)

So I'd say Digicell -- my network -- should be back very soon.

Mischa says: (6:46:28 AM)

Digicell is the best network typically.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:46:30 AM)

OK, I'll let people know.

Mischa says: (6:46:57 AM)

I'll be in touch tomorrow.

Mischa says: (6:46:59 AM)

Bye!

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:47:06 AM)

OK, Bye!

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (6:47:18 AM)

Oh, Grandma wants to know if you've got enough to eat.

To people looking for missing relatives in Haiti

2010-01-15T23:38:00.003+02:00

I'm getting a heartbreaking number of hits from people looking for their brothers in Haiti. My brother, who is in Haiti, emphasized when I spoke to him that it does not mean someone is injured or dead if you can't reach them. But it is extremely difficult for people to make contact. Try Skype if you can: He was able to get through to me that way when nothing else worked. Remember that without electricity, people can't charge their cellphones (or computers).

I know exactly how it feels to not know if your brother is okay. I can't begin to say how much I hope you find your brother alive and well.

I'm sorry I couldn't help more.

Latest from Mischa and Cristina

2010-01-15T21:53:00.002+02:00

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (9:41:23 PM)

Hey! Tell Anne her boyfriend is en route to Atlanta right now.

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:41:33 PM)

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:41:36 PM)

I will thanks

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (9:41:43 PM)

Anything else you need?

Hey, your sister wants to be sure that you'll be on the plane -- do you have more info?

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:43:26 PM)

I talked to her 30 minutes ago

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (9:43:30 PM)

okay

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:43:34 PM)

we will be on the plane

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:43:53 PM)

Mischa has this journalistic urge to stay

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:44:09 PM)

cannot stand CNN

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:45:23 PM)

Claire, it's me.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (9:45:29 PM)

Hello!

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:45:45 PM)

How are things at home?

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:45:49 PM)

I'm worried about Grandma

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (9:45:57 PM)

Great! Not often we get the whole family together.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (9:46:01 PM)

She's okay.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (9:46:18 PM)

There's nothing wrong with her, actually, besides being a total pain in the ass.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (9:46:38 PM)

I've got a cellphone you should have:

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (9:46:52 PM)

240/507-6100.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (9:47:10 PM)

Don't worry about Grandma. She'll be fine.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (9:47:17 PM)

So will everyone else.

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:47:24 PM)

Send me an email with the number please

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:47:30 PM)

I want to try and stay.

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:47:36 PM)

It's breaking my heart the idea of leaving,

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (9:48:12 PM)

Well, can you stay?

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:48:17 PM)

I think so.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (9:48:26 PM)

Stay then. I'll come and join you.

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:48:31 PM)

I don't think you can though.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (9:48:32 PM)

If I can be of help.

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:48:37 PM)

I know.

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:48:44 PM)

Let me see first.

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (9:50:37 PM)

By the way, REALLY WELL DONE on getting your whole family to safety.

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:52:23 PM)

Have to go

c.iampieri@inwind.it says: (9:52:25 PM)

Bye!

berlinski_c@hotmail.com says: (9:52:30 PM)

Bye!

MISCHA AND CRISTINA'S PLANS

2010-01-14T21:22:00.002+02:00

Cristina? If you only have a minute, i have lots of info for you.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: It's all on my facebook page and in central form on my blog. Is mischa back?

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Go to airport if you can. no info on road conditions.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Claire?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Are you there?

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: YES

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: It's your brother.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Good.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Where are you and how long do you think you have.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: I have tried to get all updated info in one place for you.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: First, although conditions are dramatic, we are FINE.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: I saw your updates.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Yes, I know.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: They are all innacurate and outdated, unfortunately.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: We are now going to logbase.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Give me accurate info so

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: I can pass it on to other people.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: It's not important.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Trust me.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: It is to a lot of people

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: The important info is thi:

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Yep:

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: We want to go to logbase; if at logbase the can evacuate us,

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: we'll be evacuated.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: If not, we'll go to the American embassy.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: My choice however is to drive to the DR.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: The road is open and undamaged.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: OK.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: In any case, my big worry is evacuating Pites.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Which road would you try to take, and what car would you be driving?

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Yes, I'm working on that.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: There is oly one road.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Our car.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Licence number?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: It doesn't matter.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Trust me.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: YES IT DOES.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: I don't know.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: I am not just improvising, I swear.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: I know.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: It's just that unless you're here, it's hard to understand how absolutely useless that information would prove.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Hey! How are you?

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: How are you on Internet now?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: How are your cats doing without you?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Scrabble?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Obviously I'm on the internet now.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: OI 01529

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: That's the license.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Fine, fine, not often we get Grandma to stop thinking about the quality -- HOW are you -- of her hospital care.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: OK, good.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: How ar eyou going to try to go to Logbase?

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: I understand there's not much gas to be found.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Could youput our plan on facebook.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: How is Grandma?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: She would not like it her now at all.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: here, I mean.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Are you still there?

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Of course I am.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: No, all the gas stations are open.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Yes, I will.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Are they?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Except the ones that exploded.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Yes.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: I walked fifteen miles this morning to find Rose.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: OK, haiti task force says do NOT drive at night.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: They had very long lines, though,

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: and I don't know how long the gas will lat.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Is Bruno okay?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Well, that's swell advice.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Who the hell drives in PAP at night ever?

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Mischa, I have not been real happy with the quality of advice from State and UNhqs.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Claire, there is NO UNHQ in PAP.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: It's gone.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Absolutely gone.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: In New York, it's still there.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: An eight story building with all of Critina's colleagues inside.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: I am well aware there are no hqs in PaP.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Remember, we saw those photos BEFORE we heard you were alive.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: There was a very tetchy several-hour interval in between.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Sorry about that.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: But we were trying as best we could.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: It was a miracle we got in touch at all.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: No worries. Glad you're okay. I know.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Are you speaking to me from a computer w. internet access or an iPhone?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Computer.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Where are you?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: But I only have Skype, for some reason.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Nothing else works.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: At home.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: On the couch.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Our internet is back.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: In the house? Aren't you worried about aftershocks?

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: They're saying outdoors is safer.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Our house suffered a 7.3 quake without a scratch.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: NOTHING.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: The architect came and inspected it.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: He said it's fine.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Doesn't mean it doesn't have major damage and won't fall in an aftershock.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: No, I'm not very worried.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: OK.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: In any case, Claire, walking down the road is fucking dangerous.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: If there is a quake.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Yes, thanks for reminding us.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Walls tumble, buildings fall.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: We had no idea earthquakes could be dangerous.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: This house is very safe.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: It had never even occurred to me that you could be at risk.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Hey! I'm the one under severe stress.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: You shouldn't be snitty.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: This could be our last IM, you know.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: THen you'd feel awful.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: No, you're the one who is 4,000 miles from Grandma.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: With 8 million hysterical Haitians.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: And a fucking freaked cat.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Leo is doing great, though.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: I'm really proud of hm.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Tell me honestly: Would you change places and be the one trying to assure Grandma, who is watching the earthquake on television, that you're JUST FINE?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: I duno.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: That's a toughie.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: If it weren't for Leo, frankly, I'd stay.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: OK. Given that communication could go out again any second, give me any more information that could possibly be of use if we do not hear from you again.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: I'd get on the next plane there if I could. So there's your answer.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: This is Jean-Alain's number:

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: 33 1 4322 95 36

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: He is our neighbor here.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: That's his mother's number.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Call her and tell her he's FINE.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: The kids are in the DR with Pascal.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: He's staying here for now.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: We are calling right now.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: What is her name?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Marthe Godet

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Who else is safe: I want to give people good news. They are so desperate.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: No, but that doesn't mean others are dead.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: It just means we don't have many contact.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: I know.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Look, can we agree on what I should do if you do NOT show up at the logs base: Where should I tell people to look for you.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Please don't dismiss these questions as kind of annoyingly anxious, because really, you've got to believe me, if you are in trouble, I am YOUR ONLY HOPE.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Tell them we went to the American embassy.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: If not then we went to the DR.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: And keep trying to call us, because we can't call you.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: C|,

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: OK. Do you have any other cellphones or numbers with you.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: No.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: You have them.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: What time do you plan to leave, and once you arrive, would you try to get word somehow?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: This is IMPORTANT

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: CALL ROSE's SISTER

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Number?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: 00 33 47 426 0692

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Not to worry, Mischa, I do kind of understand that this is important.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Deedeen

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: That's her name

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: She's in Marseilles.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Message is Rose is safe. Anything else?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Everyone is fine.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Everyone is fine.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: And kids.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: And house.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: And husband.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: OK.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: You'd think our Pop, owing to the gravity of this situation, would put on his reading glasses and learn to operate his celllphone.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: But no!

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Jeez.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Like I said, Mischa, I'd swap with you in a heartbeat.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: If it weren't for Leo, I'd stay.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: It is without a doubt the worst feeling of my life,

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: leaving right now.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: The internet has only Skype.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: What have you learned?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: What's happening here?

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Well, you know, it's probably not quite as bad as when we saw the photos of the MINUSTAH building.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: OK: What we know is estimates of maybe 500,000 dead.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Hotel Montana crushed, as you know.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Claire, do not try to minize the relative horrors of our experience!

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: I understand how trying our parents and grandparents can be.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: You did know you were alive.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: But I had to take a cold shower yesterday.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: And many people here have not even had that luxury.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Can you imagine the smell?

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Anyone else safe? It makes our Pop very happy to make these calls.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Has he made them_

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: ?

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Yes.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: And?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Messages?

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: They are so fucking happy.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: No, just hysterical blubbering and thanks to God.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Anyone else alive?

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: The UN peacekeepers cried with joy when I told them you were alive.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: It was the first such call they'd gotten.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: You still there?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Evely Etienne Severe in North Caroline.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Phone?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: If you can find her, Julie is fine.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: God only knows.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: OK!

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: What city.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: We'll betouch soon.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Who the hell knows?

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Are you leaving now?

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Yes.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: I just came from this route.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: It's quite calm.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: OK. How long do you think it may take to get to log base. I will try to call you to confirm you got there.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: And so did Jean-Alain.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Claire, I know you're stressed.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: I'm not the only one --

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: But it adds to OUR stress the necessity of staying in strict contact.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: Look, I know,

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: It makes us ignore real necessities,

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: like feeding Leo,

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: or getting fresh water,

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: or food.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: We'll be in touch as soon as we can be.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: don't do that, but be aware that if you're in trouble, and really, you COULD get in trouble,

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: But feel free to keep calling our cells.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: I am not unaware of our situation.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Please also let Cristina's family know what's happening, OK?

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: it isn't likely anyone will know or care or try to send help to the right place unless I get them to the right place.

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: So don't STRESS about staying in contact,

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: but let's TRY to work out a reasonable plan, according to the very limited information we have.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: mikee@hotmail.com

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: That's the email of the woman in north carolina.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: I need to go.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Cristina wants to contact her family.

[01/14/10] Cristina Iampieri: Bye!

[01/14/10] Claire Berlinski: I am pretty aware of what's happening over there, I think, and I know that no one is apt to help if you're in trouble unless I am really -- okay. Good luck, and I'll call before nightfall.

INFO FOR MISCHA AND CRISTINA IF YOU MANAGE TO REACH THEM

2010-01-14T19:33:00.003+02:00

I'm asking all my friends to try to call my brother in Haiti, over and over, because SOMETIMES calls get through. His number is 011 +509-654-7140 and he needs the following information:

1) Go back to your family. Rose is with them and OK.

2) The State Department and UNHQS know exactly where you are, but do not have detailed evacuation plans yet. They know you cannot call them. State advises getting to US embassy if you can, UNHQS says go to Logs. base if you can. I am trying to find info for you on roads from your house to Embassy, Logs. base and DR: US and UN had none, but people are updating on Twitter and I'm trying to contact them.

3) If you can only check one place on Internet, check my Facebook page. If you can only make one call in Haiti, call Logs base. If you can only make one call overseas, call me at 202 338 2490. I have all info in one place and you won't get through to State.

4) An Italian evacuation plane is leaving from the airport tomorrow morning, if you can get to it. You can all go. If you can make calls, call:

1° Colonnello Dormino base ONU tel number:

0050937026474

mail address: dormino@un.org

2°Claudio Colantoni

00870761280643

00870764673393

00881651474081

00881651474080

5) My best guess right now from Twitter is that the roads to DR are destroyed and impassable, but there are some reports of people getting there. State Dept is pretty sure this is NOT a good option. We're guessing that unless you are in immediate danger you should stay put and wait for safe transport to take you to embassy, Logs. base or airport. We are not sure whether transport will come to you soon, but are working as hard as humanly possible to get it there. Also, I doubt you'll get gas; on Twitter reports of mobs at gas stations.

6) If you leave where you are now, try to give as many people as you can (me especially) info about where you're going, the route you plan to take and where to look for you if you don't show up where you're expected.

7) I am trying to arrange rescue for Pites as well. Take her if you can but if you can't don't stay behind with her. We will get a rescue group to help her.

Also please try to reach Cristina with the same information: 509-605-5841.

Reassure them that lots of reports on Twitter of improving cell phone contact, so they should keep trying to reach Logs base.

If you reach them and have any news from them please post it here for quick dissemination to family and friends. I think we're mostly here on FB now.

INFORMATION FOR PEOPLE TRYING TO LOCATE US CITIZENS IN HAITI

2010-01-13T23:14:00.003+02:00

This may be helpful to someone.

I have not been able to get through to the State Department's Haiti Information Number. (1-888-407-4747.) Nor was I able to get through to any of these numbers at the US Embassy’s Consular Task Force in Port-au-Prince: 509-2229-8942, 509-2229-8089, 509-2229-8322 or 509-2229-8672. You may be able to if you keep trying.

I was, however, able to reach Karen Rodriguez, the State Department's Haiti desk officer. (1-202-647-4728.) US citizens who are trying to find their relatives in Haiti, she said, and who can't get through on those numbers, should send relevant information to ACSPaP@state.gov and haitiearthquaketaskforce@state.gov. She said not to send photos of your relatives, but to send your contact information and let them know that you can send photos if needed.

I reached my brother in PaP by calling over and over and over again. Keep trying. Lines can open up. Apparently they can also get scrambled, so don't be excessively alarmed if you call and someone who isn't your relative answers.

Don't call any of these numbers, or Haiti, for any reason other than to try to verify that your relatives are alive and give rescuers information about their location. Don't jam up the phone lines more than they already are.

MY BROTHER AND HIS FAMILY IN HAITI ARE SAFE

2010-01-13T17:03:00.003+02:00

Thank you to everyone who wrote and called. We received an e-mail from Mischa last night:

We are all fine. Communications are very limited. We'll be in touch as soon as we can. Everybody in the family is fine. Please contact Rosella and let her know.

That's all we know. We very much appreciate the phone calls and your concern, but we'd like to keep the phone line free in case they try to call, so for now please use e-mail.

Here is a Facebook group for people who are trying to figure out ways to help. I am going to try to find more information today about how people can help most effectively. If I hear from my brother again, I will also ask if he has any information about other people there, MINUSTAH employees in particular, and try to pass it on to their families. If you'd like me to ask about someone you're looking for, send me their names.

I'm sorry, I have no more information right now.

YES, IT REALLY IS A SHINING CITY UPON A HILL

2010-01-12T16:27:00.005+02:00

The Beta Academy is officially highly endorsed by "Learning to Fight." I've noted before that being endorsed by Claire Berlinski isn't exactly like being endorsed by Ramon Dekkers, but I guess I do know enough about Muay Thai to be able to recognize a place that's serious about it.

This is Nakapan, the head instructor.

Here are some photos of the students and instructors. Notice the obvious?

It had been a while since I'd been back, and I'd begun to wonder if I was just imagining what America was like. No, it's really just this way.

DOES ANYONE KNOW A GOOD PLACE TO DO MUAY THAI IN WASHINGTON, DC?

2010-01-11T14:34:00.003+02:00

Recommendations? I'm in Georgetown, and I don't have access to a car -- or rather, I do, but my driver's license seems to have expired three years ago, and I recall that in America they take these things pretty seriously.

Has anyone tried the Beta Academy in Columbia Heights? Their website looks encouraging.

PETUK AND ALLIE: REDEEM YOURSELF, READERS

2010-01-08T18:46:00.005+02:00

Petuk and Allie are on their way to a new home in Germany. My readers, sadly, can take no pride in this; none of you volunteered to adopt them.

I'm on my way to Washington DC, on Sunday. If you're in Washington and would like to redeem yourself by volunteering to adopt another splendid animal from Istanbul, I'll personally bring you your new pet. Have a look here.

Bruce Willis, in particular, would be more than happy to sit around with you all evening and watch MMA videos on the Internet. He'd be a very appropriate companion for a martial-arts enthusiast.

We wouldn't have much time to arrange this, so get in touch right away with Viktor Larkhill if you'd like an adorable hand-delivered martial-arts companion from Istanbul.

THE LIMITS OF MARTIAL ARTS

2010-01-06T17:07:00.002+02:00

The verdict may still be out on the whole "Which martial art is the best" debate, but the score for "Muay Thai v. Russian Mafia Contract Killing" is pretty clear.

Dagestani world champion in Thai boxing shot dead in Russia

A former world champion in Thai boxing was shot dead in Moscow, officials said Friday.

Friday, 25 December 2009 14:30

A former world champion in Thai boxing was shot dead in Moscow, officials said Friday.

The corpse of Muslim Abdullayev, 27, was found late Thursday with multiple gunshot wounds to the head at a stadium in the north of Moscow, the investigative committee of prosecutors said in a statement.

"It seems that this murder was most likely a contract killing," a security source told the Interfax news agency.

"At the moment the connections of the victim are being examined and in particular if he had any conflicts at the current time," the official added.

Interfax said that Abdullayev in 2004 won both the European and World Championships in Thai boxing, otherwise known as Muay Thai — a sport that enjoys great popularity in Caucasus region. Abdullayev was from Dagestan.

HAL HIGDON, I MISS YOU

2010-01-05T17:43:00.003+02:00

Back when I used to run, I slavishly followed a marathon preparation program that I'd found on the Internet written by a guy named Hal Higdon.

The thing I liked about Hal was that I really trusted him. If he said it was a rest day, I believed him. If he said I had to drag my ass out into the arctic winds and haul it around the park for seventeen miles, well, that was what I had to do, whether or not I felt like it.

I really felt that Hal wanted me to succeed and knew how to make me a better runner. Hal had given a lot of thought to things, and he'd tested his theories. Hal's program was foolproof. It took all the guesswork out of it.

Hal seemed like such a nice guy, too.

Best still, all I needed was Hal. After that, it was all up to me. I didn't need anyone else's help.

My brother and his wife, knowing of my devotion to Hal, showed up to cheer me on at the Paris marathon with a sign that said, "HAL HIGDON IS PROUD."

I wrote to Hal after that race to tell him that his program had worked and to thank him. He sent me a really sweet note back. He really was proud.

I miss Hal.

IF ANDERSON SILVA NEEDS A GHOSTWRITER, I'M NOT TOO BUSY

2010-01-03T21:44:00.004+02:00

Claire says: The more anxious I get about the amount of writing I have to do, the less able I seem to be to concentrate on it.

Mischa says: Yes, I certainly know that feeling.

Mischa says: Try doing it with a ten month old baby.

Claire says: I’ve spent the whole fucking day trying to choke out a piece about Istanbul's Capital of Culture festivities. In principle, I should be able to dictate this while sitting on the can.

Mischa says: Boy, do I know how that goes.

Claire says: Man, I wish I could play that "I have a baby" card without actually having one.

Mischa says: It's not a card. It's a genuine impediment to creative work.

Claire says: So is having a sore pinky. It's been impeding me all day.

Mischa says: I wish I hadn't lost all my Creatons for good.

Mischa says: Because they were so essential to my line of work.

Claire says: It wouldn't matter even if you hadn't, because our profession is dead.

Mischa says: Also, any desire to work.

Mischa says: I lost that too.

Mischa says: I don't think that's true.

Mischa says: Sooner or later, somebody will take what I've written and turn it into a webcam miniseries or something.

Mischa says: But I need to write it first.

Claire says: I hate writing and live only for the martial arts, a field of endeavor for which I am singularly unsuited.

Mischa says: I just read the new biography of Raymond Carver.

Claire says: Being, as I am, nearly 42, clumsy, and a complete neophyte.

Mischa says: Lots of people have begun new careers at 42 and achieved greatness.

Mischa says: Look at Ronald Reagan.

Claire says: Not in the martial arts. Not one.

Mischa says: No, perhaps not in the martial arts.

Claire says: By the way, are you familiar with Anderson Silva?

Mischa says: No.

Claire says: If your Internet connection's fast enough, you should really watch some of his videos. He's just one of the greatest athletes I've ever seen.

Mischa says: He got clobbered in his first boxing match.

Claire says: Well, he didn't get clobbered many times after that.

Mischa says: Looks like a pussy to me.

Claire says: That, I would not say.

Mischa says: Man couldn't get past round three of a spelling bee.

Claire says: No, probably not. Especially because he speaks no English.

Mischa says: No excuse, not speaking English. Proper spelling matters.

Mischa says: I also bet you could totally whomp his ass in Scrabble.

Claire says: He would nonetheless get a much bigger book advance, if he wrote a book.

Mischa says: Who the hell wants to buy Anderson Silva's book?

Mischa says: I hate books by athletes.

Claire says: I don't think I've ever read one.

Mischa says: There you go.

Mischa says: It's not a hot brand.

Mischa says: On the other hand, as I was saying, I read the new biography of Raymond Carver.

Claire says: Yes, I was wondering how that thought continued.

Mischa says: Now there was one guy who really, really, really wanted to be a writer.

ANOTHER NEOPHYTE DISCOVERY

2010-01-03T15:30:00.004+02:00

The fact that I find this a revelation should give you a clue about my real level of inexperience. I assume that to anyone who knows anything about martial arts, my breathless announcement that "I've just discovered this guy called Anderson Silva and he is almost supernatural" would be on the order of saying, "I've just heard about this thing called the Internet and I reckon it has real commercial potential." But seriously, before today, I'd never heard of the guy.

I wonder why no one told me before? He has to be one of the most magnificently graceful and gifted athletes I've ever seen.

Oh, I see I'm not the only one to think of comparing him to Michael Jordan.

Well, better late than never.

THE RANCID PACK OF FROZEN PEAS IS GETTING A BIT TOO MUCH USE

2010-01-02T22:59:00.006+02:00

I discovered an interesting martial-arts blog tonight. You might like it if you're keen on this sort of thing.

I'm not endorsing his advice -- not that my endorsement would be worth anything. If I were you, I would not seek endorsements in this field from a 41-year-old journalist who has been studying the martial arts for less than two years.

That said, I do think I can back up my claim that you really want to avoid hyperextending your elbow while punching a bag.

I can also say with authority -- I will really stand by this -- that if you're used to hitting things while wearing heavy gloves, you need to be really careful to remember that if you're not wearing them, punching something hard can hurt your hand quite unpleasantly. After today's further misadventures, I can be confident I'm not steering you wrong with that counsel.

(I see no need to illustrate the consequences of failing to heed me on that with a photo; I'm sure your imagination will suffice. Just c.f. earlier training error photos and imagine the same phenomenon, but involving fingers.)

I guess I'd actually be a reasonable authority to consult if you're interested in learning about any kind of dumb training mishap that would probably only happen to you if you were quite clumsy, like ripping off the skin of your wrist on the flapping velcro strap of a grappling glove, which also happened to me today.

But if you want the kind of martial-arts advice you'd get from someone who has actually spent a lot of time subduing extremely violent prison inmates, and apparently has had many experiences along the lines of "looking into an empty fresh skull and the smell of brains," you might try Rory Miller.

He sounds quite a bit more qualified than me.

LESSONS FROM THE NEW YEAR

2010-01-02T10:17:00.006+02:00

Lesson 1: Some kicks should not be blocked with the forearm.

Exhibit A:

I suppose my forearm was a better place for this bruise than, say, my ribs. I'm not sure there would have been a better body part to have used.

Still, something obviously went pear-shaped with that defensive maneuver.

Lesson 2: Do not hyperextend the elbow when punching.

One moment's inattention to form on the punching bag, and you'll wind up with a nasty New Year's boxer's-elbow hangover.

Lesson 3: (Unillustrated): Don't drop your guard, even if your opponent is only 10 years old.

There's an adorable kid at my gym who's about half my size. Just as the men there don't want to be the jerk who hit a girl, I don't exactly want to be the monster who hurt a child, so when I was paired for a few minutes with him last night, I was so preoccupied with worrying that I might accidentally hit him that I quite forgot that he could, in fact, hit me.

Ali whacked me right in the forehead and left a nice bruise, which is just what I deserve for patronizing him.

Good for him.

I STAND CORRECTED: PETUK AND ALLIE CAN FORECAST THE STOCK MARKET!

2009-12-28T15:05:00.002+02:00

Actually, it's just Petuk. I didn't realize it, but apparently he totally called it about 3M Co. -- "Disappointing earnings forecast," he said, and man, was he right. He's concerned about the P/E ratio on the S&P 500, but cautiously bearish on hedge funds.

Amazing, no? As if miraculous healing powers weren't enough.

Allie still hasn't shown much of a gift for stock-market forecasting. I have to be candid about that. He's still a great dog who deserves a home.

Unfortunately, it was Allie who was managing the Simba Fund. So please help out.

THE INTERNET'S LEAST-QUALIFIED MARTIAL ARTS EXPERT IS PLANNING A VACATION

2009-12-28T14:09:00.004+02:00

Coming up next month: I'm bound for Port au Prince.

Claire: How's the Muay Thai scene in Haiti?

Mischa: There is none.

Mischa: Absolutely none.

Mischa: Although there are rumors of a Thai restaurant.

(Turns out my brother's wrong. But I seem to have missed the excitement.)

Mischa: But I think you should blog your trip to Haiti. Your fans expect no less.

Claire: I surely will.

(Later ... )

Claire: Capoeira.

Claire: I can study Capoeira in Port au Prince.

Mischa: But Claire, Haiti is a good place to study real self-defense.

Mischa: The kind with bullets and tanks.

Mischa: Bulletproof vests.

Mischa: High powered ammunition.

Mischa: Snipers.

Claire: Excellent!

Claire: That will give me much to blog about.

PETUK AND ALLIE: MY BROTHER'S ADVICE

2009-12-27T14:51:00.002+02:00

I just spoke to my brother. (He's rescued three kittens in Bangkok and one in Haiti. He also tried very hard to rescue a zombie. So he's something of an expert.)

He wondered if readers might be intimidated by the thought of adopting two dogs. Not everyone can bear that much happiness, after all. Few among us have the self-esteem to think themselves worthy of that much love.

He thought I should stress that if you only seek to be half as happy, it would, in fact, be possible to adopt just one or the other.

PETUK AND ALLIE: COME ON, FOLKS, ARE YOU NUTS?

2009-12-26T21:47:00.007+02:00

Time to remind you that Petuk and Allie are still looking for a home.

I've mentioned them before. I'm absolutely astonished that no one has adopted them yet.

What's wrong with you? Are you allergic to happiness? Do you like being lonely?

Do I really need to explain what's so special about these dogs?

I suppose I do.

In one sense, there's nothing unusual about them. They're just ordinary mutts. I can't say that they speak fluent French, or that they have some remarkable aptitude for composing lyric poetry or forecasting the stock market.

But in another sense, you would have to have no sense of wonder in the world at all to be unable to see that they're miraculous.

Consider a world in which dogs were scarce -- a world, say, with only ten dogs in it. If you'd never heard much about dogs before, you'd be awed.

These dogs -- Petuk and Allie -- have a sense of smell so acute that they can detect certain organic compounds at one millionth of the concentration you'd need to discern them. It's one of the great scientific wonders of the world.

Petuk and Allie have astonishing healing abilities: Children with autism are known to respond to dogs even when they can't or won't speak to humans. Patients with advanced Alzheimer's disease will recognize dogs even when they can no longer recognize their human relatives.

Petuk and Allie are probably able to detect cancer more accurately than any laboratory test. (You'd have to train them a bit, but I'm sure they'd be willing.)

Just touching Petuk and Allie -- I am quite serious -- will raise the level of mood-elevating chemicals in your brain by statistically significant levels. If any drug company announced such solid support for an antidepressant medication in trials, its stock would soar.

Being around Petuk and Allie will lower your cholesterol, your blood pressure, and your risk of having a heart attack.

If you adopt Petuk and Allie, you will be 30 percent less likely to have a reason to visit a doctor. (This study was done in Japan, but I assume it would apply to you wherever you are.)

Petuk and Allie have seemingly telepathic aptitudes that thus far defy any conventional scientific explanation. Skeptics: Read those studies carefully, they seem to anticipate all obvious objections. I'm not saying there's no more prosaic explanation for what those dogs are doing; I'm just saying we sure don't know what it is yet.

Petuk and Allie might very well save you from poisonous snakes, drowning, an overturned car, the rubble of a collapsed building, or a rapist. Dogs save people from these things all the time.

If you get lost in the woods, Petuk and Allie would probably be able to find you. What's more, they'd probably want to.

If you'd had no previous acquaintance with dogs, and if I told you that such creatures really existed and were not merely the product of my perfervid futuristic fantasies, would you even believe me?

If I added that these creatures were genetically programmed to adore you, no matter how basically repulsive a human being you are, would you not want to possess them more than anything else in the world?

Would you not assume that only the world's wealthiest and most privileged people could ever hope to be so lucky as to live with these dogs?

And were I to note that in addition to this, Petuk and Allie descend from Neolithic dogs, and Byzantine dogs, and Ottoman dogs, wouldn't you go mad with desire to see them for yourself? I mean, it's entirely possible that their ancestors' ears were scratched by the Emperor Justinian.

Doesn't it seem insane to you that these two astonishing creatures are sitting in a cage, and that no one wants to adopt them?

I really can't understand it.

Click here to adopt Petuk and Allie. I'd hurry, because now that I've explained this, I'm sure everyone in the world will be trying to get their hands on them. I'm fully expecting a savage bidding war.

MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE MARTIAL ARTS

2009-12-26T09:50:00.004+02:00

This has nothing to do with the martial arts, but since it's actually far more important, I figured I'd point it out.

I'm working on another piece for City Journal about Pavel Stroilov's stolen Kremlin papers. I've asked an acquaintance of mine to help with the translation from the Russian. He in turn asked me why I thought it important to settle scores from that era.

This is the answer.

If you're in a hurry, skip the introduction and go right to the speech, which starts at about minute 5:00.

Alan Charles Kors - Freedom Dinner 2009 Keynote from Atlas Network on Vimeo.

"The West accepts an epochal, monstrous, unforgivable double standard. We rehearse the crimes of Nazism almost daily; we teach them to our children as ultimate historical and moral lessons; and we bear witness to every victim. We are, with so few exceptions, almost silent on the crimes of Communism. So the bodies lie among us, unnoticed, everywhere."

Learning to Fight

Does anyone know of an apartment like this?

4/23/2010 Skype Meeting Transcript

Message for Jor El members

Skype Conference Transcript

#BuBirTatbikattir Twitter'de/Twitter Dry Run Rules

Notes from yesterday's crisis-mapping meeting

IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR JOR EL

What works?

JOR EL ISTANBUL'S FIRST OFFICIAL EARTHQUAKE PREPARATION DAY

I DON'T KNOW HOW TO GROW ANTHRAX, EITHER, BUDDY

Mücadeleyi Öğrenme

ONE MORE IDEA FOR SOLVING THE PROBLEM OF CONSTRUCTION CRIME IN TURKEY

MINUTES FROM WEDNESDAY'S MEETING

A SCHOOL WITH 1,100 KIDS IN IT

Destruction of schools in Haiti quake crushes hopes of a better future for many

China's quake: Why did so many schools collapse?

JOR EL ISTANBUL

In Quake-Prone Cities, Quick Growth Invites Disaster

In Quake-Prone Cities, Quick Growth Invites Disaster

"In recent earthquakes, buildings have acted as weapons of mass destruction,"

Under the world's greatest cities, deadly plates

New construction after quake in Turkey on shaky ground

COVERING ALL THE BASES

"WELL-INTENTIONED BUT USELESS"

Turkish gov't calls for 'buffer zones' to protect cities from earthquakes

"THE FEELING OF SECURITY IS DECREASING"

Interest in psychiatry not a class issue

ŞAFAK TİMURISTANBUL – Hürriyet Daily NewsMonday, February 15, 2010

Why did so many people die in Haiti's quake?

Why did so many people die in Haiti's quake?

WHAT ABOUT THIS IDEA?

SO WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO ABOUT IT?

Strong quake will decimate Istanbul, new scenario says

USEFUL LINKS ABOUT CRISIS MAPPING

SMALL ENCOURAGING SIGNS

IN CASE THOSE STUDIES BY THE TURKISH COURT OF ACCOUNTS WERE A LITTLE DRY FOR YOUR TASTE

This sort of sums up the problem, really.

THINGS THAT ARE ALREADY BEING DONE

FORGET IT, JAKE, IT'S CHINATOWN

CELEBRITIES: START PLANNING

Experts urge action to protect Istanbul from earthquake

A disaster waiting to happen - why a huge earthquake near Istanbul seems inevitable

The Gormogons: Want to save tens of thousands of people? [UPDATED]

İSTANBUL DEPREME NASIL HAZIRLANIYOR?

FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH

(İSTABUL’DA) DEPREMDEN KORUNMAK İÇİN USHAHIDI MODELİNİ UYGULAMAK

APPLYING USHAHIDI'S MODEL TO DISASTER PREVENTION IN ISTANBUL

WORLD'S MOST BEAUTIFUL TRAIN RIDES

PREVENTING ISTANBUL FROM BECOMING THE NEXT PORT-AU-PRINCE

CHANGE OF SUBJECT

From Mischa

To people looking for missing relatives in Haiti

Latest from Mischa and Cristina

MISCHA AND CRISTINA'S PLANS

INFO FOR MISCHA AND CRISTINA IF YOU MANAGE TO REACH THEM

INFORMATION FOR PEOPLE TRYING TO LOCATE US CITIZENS IN HAITI

MY BROTHER AND HIS FAMILY IN HAITI ARE SAFE

YES, IT REALLY IS A SHINING CITY UPON A HILL

DOES ANYONE KNOW A GOOD PLACE TO DO MUAY THAI IN WASHINGTON, DC?

PETUK AND ALLIE: REDEEM YOURSELF, READERS

THE LIMITS OF MARTIAL ARTS

HAL HIGDON, I MISS YOU

IF ANDERSON SILVA NEEDS A GHOSTWRITER, I'M NOT TOO BUSY

ANOTHER NEOPHYTE DISCOVERY

THE RANCID PACK OF FROZEN PEAS IS GETTING A BIT TOO MUCH USE

LESSONS FROM THE NEW YEAR

I STAND CORRECTED: PETUK AND ALLIE CAN FORECAST THE STOCK MARKET!

THE INTERNET'S LEAST-QUALIFIED MARTIAL ARTS EXPERT IS PLANNING A VACATION

PETUK AND ALLIE: MY BROTHER'S ADVICE

PETUK AND ALLIE: COME ON, FOLKS, ARE YOU NUTS?

MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE MARTIAL ARTS

ŞAFAK TİMUR
ISTANBUL – Hürriyet Daily News
Monday, February 15, 2010